964
FXUS64 KEWX 080529
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1229 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Partly cloudy to cloudy skies dominate most of the southeast
counties and the Coastal Plains with partly cloudy to mostly sunny
skies across the rest of the local area. A rainbands associated with
Beryl is making its present across the southeast counties and
Coastal Plains area. This trend is forecast to continue through this
evening. Can`t rule for some of this activity to get closer to the I-
35 corridor before sunset. Highs are likely to reach the low to
upper 90s over most locations and up to 102-104 range at Del Rio.
Heat index values could reach the 103 to 108 mark mid to late
afternoon.

Now let brief on Beryl and its impacts across South Central Texas
for later tonight into Monday. Beryl still forecast to become a
hurricane before making landfall overnight near the middle Texas
coast between Port O`Connor and Matagorda Island. Latest forecast
has shifted the track slightly to the east and therefore, the
wind and flooding threats have shifted as well to the east. There
is a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for DeWitt, Lavaca and
Fayette Counties where tropical storm force winds could occur. A
Flood Watch is also in effect from late tonight through Tuesday
morning for DeWitt, Lavaca, Fayette and Lee Counties. Storm
rainfall totals with the shifting to the east are from 2 to 5
inches and isolated higher amounts. Beryl is forecast to exit our
eastern areas by late Monday morning or early afternoon. Monday`s
highs will be much cooler across the eastern half of South Central
Texas ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s but out along the Rio
Grande expect those highs to range from the upper 90s and up to
105 at Del Rio.

Late Monday evening into the overnight hours, the Rio Grande Plains
and southern Edwards Plateau have an opportunity to get some rain
showers as a cluster of storms pushes from the Pecos area. Overnight
lows are expected to be around the low to upper 70s and low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

By early Tuesday morning, an MCS may be ongoing over the Rio Grande
Plains and Southern Edwards Plateau. A shortwave vort max looks to
swing around the western periphery of Beryl`s upper level wind
field, allowing storms to slide into the western portion of the EWX
CWA. For now, the severe threat is low, but perhaps some gusty winds
will be possible with this complex of storms. Have opted to bump up
PoPs from the NBM in the 12Z-18Z Tue time frame as MCS`s often take
a bit longer to decay through the morning hours. Additional showers
and storms may for Tuesday afternoon in the wake of Hurricane Beryl,
as the shortwave associated with the above MCS slides eastward on
the backside of Beryl. The 12Z HREF does support a shortwave sliding
south and east as well.

Wednesday-Thursday, afternoon highs may be a bit below normal for
early to mid July, as an active pattern continues in the wake of
Beryl. Essentially, Beryl acted to break down our hot and dry
pattern, and will result in a slightly more active mid level pattern
through the remainder of the week. On Wednesday, and inverted trough
over the western Gulf of Mexico looks to move inland, allowing
showers and storms to form on the northern end in the EWX CWA.

Friday and beyond, temperatures will steadily climb back into the
mid to upper 90s, closer to seasonal normals, with slightly lower
rain and storm chances. Nevertheless, the inverted trough mentioned
above looks to slow down on it`s trek inland, so rain and storms
will remain possible Friday into next Saturday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

MVFR CIGs prevail over the I-35 sites overnight into early morning.
MVFR CIGs remain over KAUS much of the day as bands of SHRA/TSRA from
Beryl move over the site with gusts up to 30 KTs possible. CIGs lift
to VFR at KAUS by Monday evening. CIGs lift to VFR at KSAT/KSSF
later in the morning. KDRT remains VFR throughout the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  96  75  97 /  20  20  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  95  74  96 /  20  20  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  96  75  97 /  10  20  10  30
Burnet Muni Airport            71  93  73  95 /  10  20  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           81 100  79  99 /  20  30  20  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  93  73  95 /  20  20  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             75  96  74  95 /  10  30  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  95  73  96 /  10  20  10  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  96  77  96 /  10  20  10  30
Stinson Muni Airport           76  97  77  97 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for De Witt-Fayette-Lavaca-Lee.

Tropical Storm Warning for De Witt-Fayette-Lavaca.

&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...05
Aviation...04