570
FXUS64 KEWX 021922
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
222 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The benign weather regime featuring hot and rain free conditions
under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will continue as a mid-
level ridge continues to influence the region, despite the ridge
becoming gradually more centered across the Southeastern US. The
afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid to upper 90s
into the triple digits while overnight lows range from the mid to
upper 70s to near 80 degrees near Del Rio. Highest heat indices
continue each afternoon for locations along and east of the I-35
corridor with values generally between 102 and 108 degrees. A few
locations in the coastal plains could briefly reach Heat Advisory
levels, especially tomorrow afternoon, but areal extent should
remain localized enough to where an Advisory will not be needed.
Winds remain south to southeasterly across the area through the
period with breezes during tomorrow afternoon picking up slightly
stronger in comparison to this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The first couple days of the long term forecast are uneventful with a
flat upper ridge over the Deep South states and the western periphery
of the ridge covering Texas. Over the past few days the soil and
vegetation moisture was holding up the daytime dew points after the
late June rains, but the current trend is for good mixing of lower
dew points and near typical heat index values remaining mainly below
105. Dew points and heat indices may pick up Friday as the pattern
aloft weakens and a weakening cold front comes to a grinding halt
over North Central TX to draw moisture convergence with some isolated
to scattered convection. Areas not seeing the convective outflows may
see elevated heat index values around 105, but hopefully cloud cover
will hold down the ambient temperature. The disorganized isolated to
scattered convection breaks up by Saturday.

By late Saturday, we may see the beginnings of impacts from powerful
hurricane Beryl which is expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula
Friday. What effects we`ll see will be wide ranging until model
solutions close in on a better consensus. As far as what we can
expect, it will probably be at a minimum some shifty winds and
perhaps some gusts. Some increasing rain chances are ramping up but
slowly, as there is still a possibility for a track toward either
Tampico, Mex, or Lake Charles. Thus run-to-run changes in the
forecast beyond Saturday morning are encouraged to be slow until we
can see what kind of interaction Beryl has with the Yucatan.
Messaging in the next Situation Report will suggest some increased
rain chances, but will remain mum on how much rain is possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR flight conditions continue. The sky will consist of few to sct
low to mid-level clouds and few occasional pockets of thin high
level cirrus. Winds remain of light to moderate speeds out of the
south to southeast. KDRT will consist of the highest gusts this
afternoon up into the 20 to 25 knot range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  99  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  99  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            75  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           80 104  81 104 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  99  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75  99  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  99  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  97  78  97 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77 100  78 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...18
Aviation...Brady