547
FXUS64 KEWX 060847
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
347 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

An upper level trough axis extends from the Great Lakes to west TX
this morning. A cold front stretches across the northern part of our
CWA from LaGrange to San Antonio to Rocksprings. Ahead of the front
winds are still from the southeast and the airmass is warm and
moist. Behind the front winds have shifted to north to northeast and
temperatures and dewpoints are five to ten degrees lower than on the
warm side of the front. There isn`t any convection associated with
the boundary this morning. The front has made better progress than
we had anticipated previously and will continue to move southward
today before stalling near our southern border. Convergence along
the boundary combined with daytime heating will generate showers and
thunderstorms today. The highest POPs will be from the eastern
Edwards Plateau to the eastern Coastal Plains this afternoon. PW
values will be in the 1.5-2.0 inch range. This high moisture and
slow storm motion may allow for locally heavy rain. Some places
could see up to an inch of rain, but generally rainfall should be a
quarter to a half inch. Loss of heating will cut off convection
during the evening. Sunday as Beryl approaches the Texas coast
tropical moisture will spread into the Coastal Plains. Rain chances
will increase through the day, but will be confined to the Coastal
Plains. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be a degree or two
lower than Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The models appear to have stopped the trend farther to the east with
the track and faster with the speed for Beryl. The tropical cyclone
will be steered around the Subtropical Ridge centered over the
Southeastern States by a mid level shortwave moving through the upper
level trough over the Central Plains. The latest NHC forecast shows
the center will move over our far eastern areas, generally US 77 on
Monday into Monday night. The heaviest rains (multiple inches due to
strong convergence and PWS in excess of 2.5 inches) and strongest
winds (possibly tropical storm force due to strong pressure gradient)
are expected there. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible
as far west as the I-35/US 281 corridors with lighter winds and not
much rain west of there. It is too early for any Tropical or Flood
warnings/watches due to some uncertainty remaining. However, these
may be issued in later forecasts. Below normal temperatures are
expected in the east due to the clouds and rain with near normal out
west due to more sun. Stay tuned for updates as this situation
evolves.

Beryl moves off to the northeast on Tuesday. A weakness in the
pressure pattern aloft and a possible weak surface boundary remain
over our area for the rest of the week. Heating and forcing by these
features of a seasonably moist airmass maintain low chances of
showers and thunderstorms through the period. Seasonably warm
temperatures are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A weak cold front is moving through the region this morning. Winds
have shifted to the northeast at AUS and should change in San Antonio
within the next couple of hours. We don`t think the front will make
it to DRT. With the front upsetting the low level flow we don`t
anticipate any low ceilings tonight. There will be isolated
thunderstorms in Austin and San Antonio this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  77  98  77 /  40  20  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  75  97  77 /  40  20  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     98  76  98  77 /  50  20  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            93  75  95  76 /  40  20  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  80 104  80 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  75  96  76 /  40  20  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             98  74  99  77 /  40  20  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  74  97  76 /  50  20  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  76  94  77 /  50  20  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       98  77  98  78 /  40  20  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           99  76 100  79 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...04
Aviation...05