456
FXUS64 KEWX 070529
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1229 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A stationary boundary that stretches across the southern Edwards
Plateau southeastward into the Coastal Plains is likely to continue
to assist with showers and thunderstorms development. Some storms
across eastern Val Verde and north central Edwards counties are
producing heavy downpours with MRMS showing 1 to 1.5 inches per
hour. This trend is forecast to continue for the rest of this
afternoon and likely to come to an end by sunset. Latest hires
models suggest for this activity to shift to the northern part of
the Hill Country including areas west of I-35 including the western
part of Travis and northern Bexar counties. Can`t rule out some
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms forming across the far
eastern counties such as Lee and Fayette and even Bastrop Counties
later this afternoon. Precipitable water values are over 2 inches
and therefore, any strong storm and shower is capable of producing
heavy downpours which could in minor flooding across the local
roadways and poor drainage areas. High temperatures are likely to
reach the low to upper 90s over most places with up to 101 across
Del Rio. There is plenty humidity in place with heat index values
ranging from 105 to 110.

As mentioned above, once the sun goes down, the shower activity
comes to an end with partly cloudy skies forecast for the eastern
two-thirds of the local area and mostly clear skies along the Rio
Grande. Overnight lows stay warm, ranging from the low to upper 70s.

Partly cloudy skies are forecast for most areas on Sunday with
increasing clouds arriving Sunday evening into Monday morning as
Beryl advances to the northwest and north over the Gulf waters and
gets closer to the middle Texas coast by the end of the short term
forecast period. The local area should stay relatively dry for most
of Sunday and Sunday evening with activity staying along the Coastal
Plains. Sunday`s highs are forecast to range from the mid to upper
90s across most locations and up to 103 for Del Rio and vicinity.

Beryl is likely to bring heavy rains across the eastern counties and
especially along and east of Highway 77 during the day of Monday
into Tuesday morning. See the long tern forecast for details on
weather hazards related to Beryl.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The bulk of the long term discussion will focus on Beryl and how the
eastward trend impacts our overall forecast. Overnight and this
morning, guidance has come into better agreement on the eventual
track of Beryl and is narrowing in on the Middle Texas coast. For
our intents and purposes, heavy rain will be the primary issue,
however, some tropical storm force winds are possible over our
extreme eastern/southeastern counties, as gusts could approach 50
mph at times.

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center brings the
center of Beryl through eastern Lavaca and eastern Fayette counties
late Monday evening. The current trends favor the eastern portions
of the EWX CWA, with the latest WPC QPF painting locations along the
I-35 Corridor with 1-4 inches and perhaps some locally higher
amounts. Further east, into our counties east of I-35 and into the
Coastal Plains, between 5-10 inches is possible, with locally higher
amounts also possible per the latest WPC QPF forecast. Keep in mind,
Beryl will be a very compact hurricane upon landfall, so the
rainfall with the storm will have a tight gradient from west to
east, so totals are highly dependent on landfall location and will
remain that way through the entirety of this forecast. Something to
note: the guidance has finally stopped shifting eastward, so we
should be starting to get more consensus on the location of the
rainfall swath over the next 24 hours. WPC places most of the I-35
corridor and points east within a Slight risk for excessive rainfall
(Level 2 of 4) for Monday, with a Moderate risk (Level 3 of 4) for
our far eastern counties in the Coastal Plains. The threat for
flooding/flash flooding continues to increase and with that in mind,
we have gone ahead and issued a Flood Watch for DeWitt, Lavaca,
Fayette, and Lee Counties starting late Sunday night and going
through Tuesday morning.

With regard to temperatures, it will be significantly cooler within
the rain bands of Beryl, so high temperatures ranging from the upper
70s to mid 80s look likely over the eastern 1/3rd of South Central
Texas. By Tuesday, temperatures should start to rebound as Beryl
pushes northward and out of our CWA. Moist soils and remnant cloud
cover and passing showers may result in below normal afternoon
temperatures again for the eastern 1/3rd of the region. The pattern
looks to remain unsettled into the rest of the long term period with
weak mid-level flow over the south central CONUS. Showers and
storms, albeit isolated, will be possible each day through the start
of next weekend with highs climbing back into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

SHRA will end by 09Z. SHRA/TSRA may redevelop near the Coastal
Plains on Sunday into Sunday night with no impacts to the sites. VFR
flying conditions will prevail overnight through Sunday evening.
Although there is a potential for MVFR CIGs overnight into early
Sunday morning, have gone with SCT, for now. Better chances for MVFR
CIGs develop Sunday night. Light winds for most areas tonight into
Sunday, except breezy southeasterly at KDRT. Winds turn easterly on
Sunday, then northeasterly at the I-35 sites Sunday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78  87  74  95 /  10  60  40  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  86  73  94 /  10  60  40  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     77  88  74  96 /  10  60  30  30
Burnet Muni Airport            76  87  72  92 /   0  40  30  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           80 102  80 101 /   0  10  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  86  72  92 /  10  50  40  30
Hondo Muni Airport             77  93  74  98 /   0  30  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  86  72  95 /  10  60  30  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  83  73  89 /  20  70  40  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  90  75  98 /  10  50  20  30
Stinson Muni Airport           78  92  76  99 /  10  50  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for De Witt-
Fayette-Lavaca-Lee.

Tropical Storm Warning for De Witt-Lavaca.

&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...05
Aviation...04