926
FXUS64 KEWX 071800 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
100 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The models have resumed the trends farther to the east with the
track and faster with the speed for Beryl. The tropical cyclone will
be steered around the Subtropical Ridge centered over the
Southeastern States by a mid level shortwave moving through the
upper level trough over the Central Plains. The latest NHC forecast
shows the center will approach the middle Texas coast while
strengthening to a Hurricane today into tonight, move inland there
late tonight into early Monday, then move north passing just east of
the US 77 corridor while weakening into a tropical storm on Monday,
and move off to our northeast Monday evening. The outermost bands
may produce a few showers and thunderstorms over Coastal Plains this
afternoon into evening. Then, heavy rains in bands near the center
move north along the US 77 corridor with some bands as far west as
the I-35/US 281 corridors on Monday. Rainfall amounts up of 3 to 7
inches with isolated higher amounts are possible near where the
center passes with much lighter or no amounts farther to the west.
WPC has shifted the risks of excessive rainfall to the east. The
moderate risk (3 out of 4) has moved to just east of our area, being
replaced by a slight risk (2 out 4), then shifting the marginal risk
(1 out of 4) to east of I-35. With the potential for multiple inches
near the center will maintain the Flood Watch for Lee, Fayette,
Lavaca, and De Witt counties. Tropical Storm force winds of greater
than 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph are likely near the Coastal Plains
and have maintained the Tropical Storm Warning for De Witt and Lavaca
counties. Some shear could lead to a tornado or two over Lavaca
County with the approach of Beryl. Below normal temperatures are
expected in the east due to the clouds and rain on Monday. Otherwise,
seasonable temperatures are expected in the short term. Stay tuned
for updates as this situation evolves.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The upper level trough over the middle of the country will lift to
the northeast during the middle of the week. However, the subtropical
ridge will not really re-establish itself over the Southern Plains. A
weakness will remain over Texas through Friday. This will allow
diurnally driven convection each day. There will be low chances for
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Generally
speaking most places will stay dry, but scattered showers may produce
a quick half inch of rain for those lucky enough to get one. The
upper ridge will finally build back in for the weekend suppressing
any convection. With unsettled weather through the middle of the week
temperatures will be fairly steady and near normal. When the ridge
builds in they will warm over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours for the I-35
sites. KDRT is forecast to stay VFR through the period. MVFR cigs are
likely to occur overnight around 08Z or so for the I-35 terminals and
remain through 13Z or 14Z. Northeast to east winds 8 to 12 knots are
expected for the rest of today into tonight and overnight period.
Wind speeds and wind gusts are forecast to increase on Monday
morning as Beryl moves across the Coastal Plains. KDRT wind flow
stays from the southeast and east through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  90  74  96 /  20  50  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  89  73  95 /  20  50  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     78  95  74  96 /  20  30  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            75  90  71  93 /  10  30  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           80 105  81 100 /   0  10  20  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  87  71  93 /  10  50  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport             76  98  75  96 /   0  10  10  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  92  72  95 /  20  40  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  84  72  91 /  60  80  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  96  76  96 /  10  20  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           79  98  76  97 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for De Witt-
Fayette-Lavaca-Lee.

Tropical Storm Warning for De Witt-Fayette-Lavaca.

&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...17