903
FXUS64 KEWX 161803
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
103 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Clear skies are in place across most of south central Texas this
morning. The exception is across portions of the Rio Grande plains
south of Eagle Pass where some high clouds are noted. Some brief low
clouds may develop along and east of the I-35 corridor this morning,
but most areas can expect mostly sunny skies today. High
temperatures will range from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees as
south to southeast winds remain gusty this afternoon. On Wednesday,
the overall weather pattern will not change much. Expect another day
of highs in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. We did add a mention of
showers and thunderstorms to the forecast for the coastal plains
Wednesday afternoon, with a dry forecast intact elsewhere. A few
spots along and east of the I-35 corridor may see some brief heat
index values near 107 degrees today and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

An upper level low moving across the Great Lakes into Thursday will
help to carve out a more pronounced trough axis across the Ozarks
through east Texas during the second half of this week and into this
upcoming weekend. The upper level ridge also slides to the west
becoming centered across the western CONUS into the Pacific
Northwest. A surface front advances southward into Central Texas from
Thursday into Friday and could possibly slip into our region pending
outflow. The boundary along with the advection of some higher PWATs
helps to provide the focus for returning shower and thunderstorm
chances. While the front does look to lift northward and/or fizzle
out entering the weekend, the higher PWAT values linger and help to
promote at least continued daily lower end (20 to 30%) chances for
showers and storms this weekend. Medium range guidance, including a
signal within the ensemble means, show the possibility of a secondary
front or at least another southerly push of the original boundary
southwards towards Central Texas into the start of next week. This
combined with an influx of even higher PWATS may yield to some
better rain and storm chances entering early next week. As seen last
week, a weak steering flow aloft could result in slow storm motions
and some potential for isolated pockets of locally heavy rainfall.
With the returning cloud cover and moisture, expect for daytime
highs along with the overnight lows to gradually lower to near and
even below seasonal average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for the local area terminals through the
period. South to southeast winds 9 to 13 knots with gusts up to 21
knots are possible through 00Z Wed. Southerly winds diminish to 9
knots or less this evening and continue through Wednesday morning.
Some low clouds or spotty MVFR cigs can`t be ruled out from KAUS
around dawn and daybreak. We continue to monitor and adjust the
forecast accordingly. Wind speeds pick up a bit on Wednesday
afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77 100  77  98 /   0   0   0  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  99  75  97 /   0  10   0  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  98  76  97 /   0  10   0  20
Burnet Muni Airport            75  98  75  95 /   0  10  10  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           80 102  80 100 /   0   0   0  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  99  76  96 /   0   0  10  30
Hondo Muni Airport             75  98  75  97 /   0  10   0  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  98  75  97 /   0  10   0  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  95  75  93 /   0  20   0  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  98  77  97 /   0  10   0  20
Stinson Muni Airport           77  99  77  98 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...05
Aviation...17