310
FXUS64 KEWX 110722
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
222 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

There continues to be a large area of weakness in the subtropical
ridge in the short-term, allowing for mid-level pockets of elevated
moisture to keep stability limited over much of Texas. Seasonally
warm weather continues over South Central TX with isolated to widely
scattered convection in the daytime and evenings. PWat values of 2
to 2.2 still exist over the Rio Grande Plains and Coastal Prairies
south of I-10 to delineate the better rain chances, while coverage
less than 10 percent will have us keeping the WX grids silent for
today and tonight.

On Friday, an H7-H5 inverted trough sharpens over the Rio Grande
Valley and drifting NW, while an upper level trough axis holds in
place over W/NW TX, extending SW to NE. The pooling of higher PWat
values will thus be allowed to move farther inland Friday, anchored
by highest values near Laredo. Continued scattered showers and storms
will form where they have the past couple days, but some northern
Hill Country areas may still miss out.

Slightly lower convective coverage expected today versus last couple
of days has us maintaining the MaxT to mostly 90-97, but more
coverage expected Friday has the MaxT regressing back to mainly upper
80s and low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Friday night through Saturday night, a weakness in the pattern aloft
overhead and an inverted trough over northern Mexico maintain
unseasonably moist PWs. Heating and forcing by these features on the
moist and unstable airmass generate isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the day, and along the Rio Grande to over the
Edwards Plateau at night. The main threats with the thunderstorms
will be gusty winds, lightning, and locally heavy downpours.

Sunday through Wednesday, the Subtropical Ridge builds in from the
east while the inverted trough over Mexico lingers and extends into
western Texas, possibly becoming a closed low. Some drying takes
place to lower PWs to seasonal levels. Subsidence under the ridge
and the drier airmass keep rain out of the forecast. However, cannot
rule out a few showers and a thunderstorm or two each day near the
Coastal Plains along the seabreeze and over Val Verde County in
proximity to the inverted trough/closed low.

Seasonably hot days and warm nights can be expected through the
period. Heat index values become elevated next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Light wind regime should lead to more VFR skies through the TAF
periods. Some more isolated to scattered convection is offered as
Prob30 groups at mainly SAT and SSF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  76  94  76 /   0  10  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  75  93  75 /  10  10  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  75  93  75 /  10  20  30  10
Burnet Muni Airport            96  73  93  74 /   0   0  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  77  95  78 /  10  20  30  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  74  93  74 /   0   0  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             94  73  90  74 /  20  20  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  73  93  74 /  10  10  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  74  90  74 /  20  10  30  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  76  92  76 /  10  20  30  10
Stinson Muni Airport           96  76  92  76 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...04
Aviation...18