078
FXUS64 KEWX 102344
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
644 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have begun to develop
midday across South Central Texas. The main drivers for this
activity includes deep tropical moisture in place (PWATS from around
1.5 to over 2 inches), a weak boundary and, possibly later this
afternoon, the seabreeze. Most locations across the area have
chances to see a shower or storm, although hi-res guidance brings
less activity to Central Texas in the northeastern portion of the
CWA with the most favored location being the coastal plains. No
severe weather is expected as 0-6 km shear remains at or below 15
knots, but locally heavy rain and gusty wind will be possible with
any activity today. Activity should diminish after sunset. Highs
today will be near normal values for the majority.

Dry conditions and mild/warm overnight lows are expected ranging
from the upper 60s to the upper 70s. Some patchy fog may form over
the coastal plains Thursday morning. More chances for precipitation
are seen on Thursday, mainly across the southern half of the CWA
where PWATS remain highest. Activity may be slightly more isolated
than today. Highs will again be seasonable tomorrow, although
temperatures may remain slightly lower in the south due to possible
rain and cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

The long term will be active to start, and finish hot and dry for
most. On Friday, an inverted trough will slide inland over
northeastern Mexico and actually work its way pretty far into
central Texas. This should result in enhanced lift throughout the
majority of South Central Texas Friday afternoon. Widely scattered
showers and storms will pop off, primarily between Noon and 6pm.
PWATs will climb into the 1.75-2.25" range as this tropical moisture
associated with the trough moves inland. That should result in
rather efficient warm rain processes and localized flooding in
places where any storms sit for an extended period of time. Rainfall
rates could approach 1-2" per hour look like a good bet. Afternoon
temperatures should be a bit cooler as well due to increased cloud
cover. Saturday should be a very similar story with PWATs in the 1.5-
2" range over most of the CWA. Widely scattered showers and storms
with locally heavy downpours that could produce a quick 1-2 inches
for a lucky few look possible.

By late Saturday into early Sunday, we should see the trough shift
northward and westward into west Texas and eastern New Mexico. This
should effectively shut off our shower and storm threats Sunday-
Wednesday. We may still see a seabreeze shower or storm over the
extreme eastern CWA and perhaps some activity over the SDBs in
northern Mexico work eastward into parts of the Rio Grande Plains,
but that looks unlikely at this point. Afternoon highs will climb
back to near seasonal normals for mid July, with most locations in
the mid to upper 90s and near 100 by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Lingering isolated to scattered convection across portions of the
western and southern half of South-Central Texas entering this
evening should dissipate over the next hour or two with the loss
of heating of the day. As a result, KSAT, KSSF, and KDRT maintain
VCTS or TSRA mentions within the first few hours of this TAF
package. VFR flight conditions are otherwise expected to prevail
through the period. An isolated opportunity for convection will
return on Thursday afternoon but confidence remains too low to
insert any thunder mention into the TAFs as greatest chances are
expected to favor locations south of the terminals. Winds will
remain generally light to moderate but winds could become gusty
and variable near and/or behind any nearby convection or outflow
boundaries.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  97  76  95 /  10  10   0  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  96  74  94 /   0  10   0  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  30
Burnet Muni Airport            73  95  73  93 /   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  97  77  95 /  20  20  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  95  74  94 /   0   0   0  20
Hondo Muni Airport             73  93  73  92 /  20  20  10  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  95  73  93 /  10  20  10  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  92  73  90 /  10  20   0  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  95  75  93 /  20  20  10  40
Stinson Muni Airport           76  95  75  94 /  20  20  10  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...27
Aviation...Brady