006
FXUS64 KEWX 112333
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
633 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

An area of weakness remains in the upper levels over South Central
Texas today and tomorrow allowing high PWATS to remain over much of
Texas. A few showers have developed over the Rio Grande Plains
midday with more isolated to widely scattered activity expected to
develop mid afternoon ending sometime around sunset. Similar to
previous days, bulk shear is lacking which should keep storms non-
severe, although locally heavy rain and gusty wind will be possible.
The most favored locations for any precipitation will be south of I-
10. Highs today will top out in the low to upper 90s, near seasonable
values for mid-July.

Friday, an inverted trough builds over the the western portion of
the area which will aid in more widespread precipitation chances
over the area beginning in the morning. By Friday afternoon, PWATS
will generally be from 1.5 to 2.25 inches across all of South
Central Texas which will bring another day of locally heavy rainfall
and gusty wind. PoPs will be highest in the southern half of the CWA
although scattered showers or thunderstorms may develop as north as
the Hill County Friday afternoon. A bit more coverage for storms is
expected tomorrow compared to today. Increased cloud cover could
cool us off a few degrees tomorrow, although highs are still
expected to reach into the upper 80s to mid 90s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The long-term period of the forecast will continue to see some low
chances of rain for portions of the area as a weak upper low slowly
meanders west of our CWA. This upper low is the remnants of a weak
wave that moved in from the western Gulf earlier in the forecast
period. Saturday will likely see the highest chances of rain during
the long-term as the low is closest to the CWA and precipitable
water values remain near 2 inches. Will show some 30-40 PoPs in the
Coastal Plains where the moisture is highest and in the western CWA
in closer proximity to the low. The rest of the CWA will see 20-30
PoPs. The upper low should retreat a bit to the west Sunday and
Monday with lower moisture values expected. This should allow for
lower PoPs with some 20s in the forecast for the extreme west and
southeast counties. The GFS/ECMWF have some differences with how far
the low will move to the northwest with the ECMWF farther north.
Rain chances will be mainly dependent on the location of the low but
will keep most of the area dry Tuesday into Wednesday with maybe
some low chances continuing in the southeast and northwest CWA. The
best timing for rain on any given day through Wednesday will be
mainly in the afternoon periods with peak diurnal heating. Most
activity should dwindle in the evenings with the loss of heating.

The GFS/ECMWF are in somewhat of agreement that a trough will push
through the Central Plains late next week and should push a boundary
into Texas during this time frame. The GFS sends this boundary into
our area while the ECMWF keeps it mainly north. It is hard to get a
front this far south during the month of July, but regardless should
see a slight increase in PoPs for portions of the area perhaps on
Thursday or just beyond the current forecast cycle with the lack of
high pressure over our region. Will continue to monitor for any
trends here. Temperatures in the extended will mostly be in the 90s
Saturday through Monday with possible highs near 100 by mid-week as
the atmosphere dries out a bit. Lows will be in the 70s for most
locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR flight conditions should prevail into tonight at the area TAF
sites. Spotty isolated showers and storms diminish during the next
few hours with lost of daytime heating. Kept VCSH across the San
Antonio terminals (KSAT and KSSF) and VCTS for KDRT. Low clouds
develop late overnight and may lead to a period of some MVFR
ceilings at KSAT and KSSF early Friday morning. VFR conditions
continue for KAUS and KDRT overnight into Friday. Friday afternoon
could see the return of isolated to widely scattered shower and
convective activity. The San Antonio terminals (KSAT and KSSF) have
the greatest chance to be impacted and have added a PROB30 group
with -TSRA through Friday afternoon at those sites. South to
southeasterly winds should remain light to moderate through the
period but could become briefly gusty and variable at times in and
around any showers/storms and/or outflow boundaries.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  94  76  95 /   0  20  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  94  75  93 /   0  20  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  93  75  94 /  10  30  10  30
Burnet Muni Airport            72  94  74  92 /   0  10  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  96  77  92 /  20  20  20  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  94  75  93 /   0  20  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             72  91  75  90 /  20  30  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  93  73  93 /  10  20  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  90  74  91 /  10  30  10  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  92  76  93 /  10  30  20  30
Stinson Muni Airport           75  93  76  93 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...29
Aviation...Brady