835
FXUS64 KEWX 122332
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
632 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Extended PoPs through this evening across the coastal plains as the
result of the ongoing region of light stratiform rain across that
region. Otherwise, the rest of the isolated storms and heavier
shower activity across the region should gradually wane over the
next few hours. Have elected to lower the daytime highs across the
region tomorrow slightly given the expectation for greater cloud
cover and returning scattered shower and thunderstorm activity.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Tropical moisture has worked into South-Central Texas this afternoon
and has led to a decent coverage of showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the eastern two-thirds of the area.
Precipitable water values in this region are near 2 inches which is
helping to fuel this activity. Rainfall amounts this afternoon will
vary from little to no rain for areas that do not see this scattered
activity up to 1-2 inches for isolated locations that see the
heavier cells. Expect most of the activity to dissipate by 9-10 pm
with the loss of heating, but can`t rule out an isolated shower or
storm during the night period. Temperatures are currently running in
the 80s to lower 90s with the cloud cover and rainfall and highs
later today should remain in the low 90s for most locations.

Besides the low rain chances tonight, some partly to mostly cloudy
skies can be expected with lows in the lower to middle 70s. For
tomorrow, the elevated precipitable water values will remain in
place. A weak disturbance should be in place tomorrow which could
lead to a slightly higher coverage of shower and isolated storm
activity during the day. Will show 20-50 PoPs across much of the
forecast area. Rainfall amounts should be similar to today ranging
from little to no rainfall up to 1-2 inches in the heavier cells.
Can`t completely rule out some gusty winds as well today and
tomorrow with any outflow boundaries moving off of storm activity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Sunday into the middle of next week the subtropical ridge will begin
to build back in from the east while an inverted trough from the
southwest remains over the west Texas vicinity. This trough will
allow for some precipitation chances each day, mainly in Val Verde
County or just along the Rio Grande. Primarily dry weather is
expected elsewhere through this time, although some isolated showers
or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the coastal plains due to the
seabreeze.

Thursday and Friday an upper low will be located somewhere just west
or southwest of South Central Texas keeping precipitation chances in
place in the western portion of the area. An upper trough moves over
the northeastern US late week with a possible shortwave from this
feature extending into the southern Plains bringing a weak cold
front into northern Texas. Precipitation chances increase by Friday
but will need to see how far south the front can make it.

Temperatures remain near seasonable values through the week with
heat indices creeping up mid to late week. For now, conditions look
to remain just below Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Latest radar imagery shows a region of light stratiform rain across
the coastal plains. This stretches into the KSSF region and may keep
some -RA there for the next few hours. Shower activity also remains
near KDRT and will keep VCSH for that TAF over the next few hours.
Conditions have quieted at KSAT and KAUS and this looks to continue
through the remainder of this evening. VFR flight conditions prevail
into tonight but expect for MVFR ceilings to develop overnight into
Saturday morning at KSAT, KSSF, and KDRT. Rain chances also start
returning mid to late Saturday morning with scattered coverage for
Saturday afternoon. The best chance for thunder occurs with peak
daytime heating in the afternoon and we`ll elect to go with a PROB30
group featuring -TSRA between 18Z and 00Z at each of the TAF sites.
South-southeast to east-southeasterly winds remain generally light
but could temporarily become gusty and variable at times in and
around any showers/storms and/or outflow boundaries.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  93  76  96 /  10  30   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  91  76  95 /  10  30   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  90  76  96 /  20  30   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  91  75  93 /  10  30  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  91  79  96 /  20  40  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  91  76  95 /  10  30   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  89  75  94 /  20  30  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  90  73  95 /  20  40   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  89  74  93 /  20  40   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  89  76  96 /  20  30  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  90  76  96 /  20  40   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...27
Aviation...Brady