520
FXUS64 KEWX 131134
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
634 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Morning PWat analysis from the GFS/NAM indicates that near 2.0 inch
PWat values have stacked up against the escarpment, thus setting the
table for another good rain chance for much of the area today. The
axis of the inverted trough in the mid levels over TX appears to be
over our Nrn CWA and that should bode well for Chance category PoPs
for most areas today.  By tonight the H7 trough is far enough inland
that the mid level ridging from the Gulf is set to make a push into
South TX to bring a more stable pattern back into South TX for
Sunday. High temperatures are expected to rebound over the
relatively mild days of Friday and today, with many highs getting
back to the mid 90s. Residual pooling of higher PWat moisture will
be in place over the SW and SE corners of our forecast areas, so
perhaps a stray thunderstorm or two would be possible there. With
higher moisture comes higher dew point temperatures, and the SE
counties could end up seeing some slightly elevated heat index
values around 105 Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

For the early to mid portion of the upcoming week will see
temperatures warm back closer to climatological normals for this time
of year. While we will not have strong ridging aloft, we do expect to
see strengthening of the low-level thermal ridge. Most areas will
remain dry, but with a weak upper low/inverted trough over northern
Mexico into west Texas, we will keep a low chance for mainly
diurnally driven convection across portions of the Rio Grande
plains into the southern Edwards Plateau. Some locally heavy rainfall
may occur given the high precipitable water values pooled near the
weak upper low/inverted trough. It is too far out to determine where
locally heavy rain will occur, but for now most of the models keep
the higher amounts over the mountainous terrain of northern Mexico.

For the latter portion of the forecast period (Thursday and Friday),
the remnants of the upper low/trough axis are expected to weaken and
or shift to the east of the region. The models are still consistent
in showing a weak cold front moving into north Texas on Thursday,
with signs the boundary may be able to move into south central Texas
on Friday. We will keep rain chances in the forecast for most of the
region on Thursday and Friday and if models remain consistent, we may
need to boost rain chances with the arrival of this front. With the
increase in cloud cover and rain chances, temperatures should manage
to ease back down to climatological normals on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Deeper tropical moisture is surging north and making the low levels
more buoyant. Thus will stick with MVFR cigs although if a brief CIG
appears at DRT, it could be briefly IFR. Thunder chances should
again be earlier than what is typical for summer due to the high PWat
values in the area. We`ll elect to go with a PROB30 groups of
light TSRA starting between 16Z and 18Z and running into the late
afternoon at each of the TAF sites. South-southeast to east-
southeasterly winds remain generally light but could temporarily
become gusty and variable at times in and around any showers/storms
and/or outflow boundaries. More stable air is expected tonight. And
with still a lot of low level moisture, we should see a long period
of IFR/MVFR CIG potential late.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  76  96  76 /  30  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  76  94  75 /  30  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     89  75  94  75 /  30  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            91  74  93  74 /  30  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  79  97  79 /  40  20  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        91  75  94  75 /  30  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             87  74  93  75 /  40  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        89  74  93  73 /  30  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  74  92  75 /  50  20  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  76  94  76 /  40  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           90  76  95  76 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...18