251
FXUS64 KEWX 131735
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Morning PWat analysis from the GFS/NAM indicates that near 2.0 inch
PWat values have stacked up against the escarpment, thus setting the
table for another good rain chance for much of the area today. The
axis of the inverted trough in the mid levels over TX appears to be
over our Nrn CWA and that should bode well for Chance category PoPs
for most areas today.  By tonight the H7 trough is far enough inland
that the mid level ridging from the Gulf is set to make a push into
South TX to bring a more stable pattern back into South TX for
Sunday. High temperatures are expected to rebound over the
relatively mild days of Friday and today, with many highs getting
back to the mid 90s. Residual pooling of higher PWat moisture will
be in place over the SW and SE corners of our forecast areas, so
perhaps a stray thunderstorm or two would be possible there. With
higher moisture comes higher dew point temperatures, and the SE
counties could end up seeing some slightly elevated heat index
values around 105 Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

For the early to mid portion of the upcoming week will see
temperatures warm back closer to climatological normals for this time
of year. While we will not have strong ridging aloft, we do expect to
see strengthening of the low-level thermal ridge. Most areas will
remain dry, but with a weak upper low/inverted trough over northern
Mexico into west Texas, we will keep a low chance for mainly
diurnally driven convection across portions of the Rio Grande
plains into the southern Edwards Plateau. Some locally heavy rainfall
may occur given the high precipitable water values pooled near the
weak upper low/inverted trough. It is too far out to determine where
locally heavy rain will occur, but for now most of the models keep
the higher amounts over the mountainous terrain of northern Mexico.

For the latter portion of the forecast period (Thursday and Friday),
the remnants of the upper low/trough axis are expected to weaken and
or shift to the east of the region. The models are still consistent
in showing a weak cold front moving into north Texas on Thursday,
with signs the boundary may be able to move into south central Texas
on Friday. We will keep rain chances in the forecast for most of the
region on Thursday and Friday and if models remain consistent, we may
need to boost rain chances with the arrival of this front. With the
increase in cloud cover and rain chances, temperatures should manage
to ease back down to climatological normals on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Bit of a tricky forecast period with more scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms expected across South Central Texas through
this evening. MVFR ceilings have been slow to lift this morning so
have kept these conditions through 19Z. Thunderstorm chances look
best in the southern half of the area including San Antonio
terminals and DRT where TEMPO groups have been added. At AUS, have
kept only the mention of showers at this time but will need to keep
an eye on convective trends this afternoon. South to southeasterly
wind will generally be light although some gusts to 22 knots will be
possible at DRT this afternoon and gusty wind will be possible with
any storm activity. MVFR ceilings look to build back over the area
overnight into Sunday morning although the extent of this cloud deck
is still slightly uncertain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  96  76  98 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  94  75  96 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  94  75  95 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            74  93  74  95 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  97  79  97 /  20  10   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  94  74  96 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  93  75  94 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  93  73  95 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  92  75  94 /  20  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  94  76  95 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  95  76  95 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...27