039
FXUS64 KEWX 132321
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
621 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen across South
Central Texas early this afternoon associated with lingering deep
tropical moisture and an inverted trough to the west. High
precipitable water values will once again allow any storms to
produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty outflow winds. The majority
of this activity should dissipate near sunset although some
lingering activity may exist through late tonight in the west. With
cloud cover over the area though the day today, highs top out in the
80s to low 90s this afternoon.

High pressure over the Gulf expands over east Texas overnight
bringing more stable conditions to the area tomorrow. With moisture
still in place, expect cloud cover to continue overnight into
tomorrow with possibly a few sprinkles in the morning hours. In
general, drier conditions are expected across the majority of the
area Sunday, although low end PoPs continue in the far west over Val
Verde and over the far eastern portion of the CWA where moisture
remains high. Slightly warmer conditions are forecast tomorrow with
highs mainly in the 90s across the area. Dry weather and seasonable
low temperatures expected Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

On Monday, the Subtropical High will remain centered over the Four
Corners, resulting in weak northeasterly flow in the mid-levels over
South Central Texas. For the most part, things will remain
seasonably hot and dry through the middle of next week, however, as
the High starts to slide westward by Thursday-Friday, an approaching
trough over the central CONUS may open the door for a cold front to
slide southward into north Texas Thursday morning.

At this time, there is still some uncertainty as to how far south
this front makes it into South Central Texas and how much cooler air
it could even bring to the region. In any matter, these types of
scenarios usually result in showers and thunderstorms, so PoPs have
increased with the latest NBM guidance. Ensembles are in agreement on
northwest flow setting up at the 500mb level, hence the opened
window/proverbial door for a front to make it this far south. PWATs
should be in the 1.75"-2" range, which would be favorable for locally
heavy rain in any storms that form or train over one location. For
now, the ECM favors more precip with this frontal boundary than the
GFS, but this is still nearly a week away, so confidence is low on
any sort of precip totals. Unsettled weather looks to continue beyond
the long term period, with both the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day
outlooks leaning towards below average temperatures and likely above
average rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Isolated SHRA activity is forecast to gradually dissipate after
sunset. VFR conditions through the evening hours. Guidance indicates
stratus will develop near the SAT area and into the Hill Country
06Z-08Z, expanding west and north, potentially into AUS, 08Z-12Z.
Ceilings are generally forecast to be MVFR with the stratus, and mix
out to VFR 15Z-18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  97  75  98 /  10  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  95  74  96 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  94  75  95 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  95  74  95 /  10  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  96  79  97 /  20  10  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  95  74  96 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  94  74  94 /  10  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  94  73  95 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  92  75  94 /  10  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  94  76  95 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  95  76  95 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...76