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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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138 FXUS64 KEWX 171737 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 The mid-level ridging centered across the Four Corners will slowly shift towards the west-northwest during the short term period. This results in a more northerly flow to establish aloft and this helps to advance a weak cold front and any residual convection and/or outflow southward through North Texas then Central Texas later today into tonight. The boundary or at least residual outflows then look to enter portions of our CWA late tonight into Thursday. Given the latest model guidance, including the HREF members, have elected to push up the timing on initial rain and storm chances to start overnight into Thursday morning across the northern portions of our area. The front and any associated outflow continues to slip southward during Thursday and should provide scattered coverage of rain and storms across the region with daytime heating. Cells could become slow moving at times and may produce isolated spots of locally heavier downpours and gusty winds. The rain chances through this afternoon remain rather slim but a stray to isolated shower may enter the coastal plains with the sea breeze or adventure into our far northern Hill Country early this evening with any outflows that may advance far out ahead of the front. The temperatures for this afternoon are likely to trend of the hottest the rest of the week with highs into the mid to upper 90s with isolated locations eclipsing 100 degrees. The peak heat indices trend slightly higher with values in the 103 to 107 range near and east of the I-35 corridor. Tonight will trend warm with increasing clouds and overnight lows that run similar to the past few nights. Thursday afternoon should be able to shave off at least a couple of degrees across most locations within the area outside from perhaps the Rio Grande thanks to the increased moisture and cloud cover with the influence from the weak front. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 With convection expected Thursday, the above mentioned cold front will continue to slowly sag southward into the region Thursday night. Some additional convection may develop along the boundary, but with daytime heating on the decline, We will keep rain chances low Thursday night. On Friday, the remnant frontal boundary along with some weak upper level disturbances embedded in northnorthwest flow aloft should result in some additional rain chances. Rain chances will be higher near the remnants of the front and this should place the better opportunity in the coastal plains region. Temperatures should also trend downward on Friday given rain chances and increased cloud cover. Most areas should see highs in the 90s, perhaps some upper 80s in the higher terrain of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. For the upcoming weekend and into early next week, an upper trough axis will gradually build southward into the southern U.S. plains. We will keep rain chances fairly low on Saturday and generally confined to the peak heating hours in the afternoon and early evening. On Sunday into Monday, the medium range models show another cold front possibly dropping southward through north Texas into south central Texas. The southward push of this boundary will largely be driven by the amount of convection that develops along and behind of this feature. For now, it appears rain chances will be on the increase Sunday afternoon and evening as models show some weak upper level disturbances moving in from the north. Currently, the models tend to favor the cold front moving in sometime late Sunday afternoon into Monday. We should see at least scattered convection develop during this period along with temperatures remaining below normal. Timing and placement of where any of the heavier precipitation may fall remains problematic this far in advance. However, pattern recognition tends to favor locally heavy rains over the southern Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country. Upper level troughing remains intact through Tuesday leading to additional rain chances along with below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at all airports through the afternoon and evening. Winds will be southerly to southeasterly at 5-10 kts. A cold front will move down through Central Texas overnight and there will be a slight chance for showers in the Austin and San Antonio areas. Better chances for convection will move in Thursday morning as the front gets closer to the area. Conditions should stay VFR in storms, but ceilings could drop to MVFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 96 74 96 / 20 40 20 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 95 74 95 / 20 40 20 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 95 74 95 / 10 40 20 30 Burnet Muni Airport 75 93 72 93 / 20 50 20 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 100 78 102 / 10 20 10 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 76 93 73 93 / 20 40 20 20 Hondo Muni Airport 75 96 74 95 / 10 30 20 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 94 73 95 / 10 30 20 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 94 74 91 / 10 30 20 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 96 76 96 / 10 40 20 40 Stinson Muni Airport 77 97 76 96 / 10 20 20 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Brady Long-Term...Platt Aviation...05