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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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448 FXUS64 KEWX 150737 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 237 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A slow warming trend will take place through early this week as the subtropical ridge centered over the western United States slowly builds southward into the southern Rockies. Near the surface, we will see continued south to southeasterly winds along with a fairly stout low-level thermal ridge. Some late night and early morning low clouds can be expected, but a gradual decrease in mid and upper level clouds is anticipated. Look for highs to generally stay in the lower to upper 90s today, with a nudge upward into the mid 90s to near 100 degrees on Tuesday. We will keep the forecast dry today and Tuesday as the global and hi-res models are reluctant to show much in the way of convective development. We will continue to monitor out west along the Rio Grande and into the coastal plains, but confidence is not high enough to mention any precipitation chances just yet. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The mid to upper level shear axis stuck over TX finally gets nudged by an expanding upper ridge southeastward to the coast by Wednesday and offshore Thursday. The upper ridge doesn`t appear to have much staying power over Central TX for some reason, and an amplification of central CONUS troughing works its way back into TX by late Thursday. The warming trend with slightly above normal continues in the first couple days of the long term period, and a light south breeze and elevated RH will make Wednesday and Thursday afternoons the most uncomfortable in terms of the heat index. We suspect a few spots along/east of I-35 could briefly climb over 108 to reach advisory criteria, but for not enough time or percentage of the area to issue the product. With some continuity shown in the model projections, we will now have it messaged in the HWO, and when the time come, perhaps have a SPS to account for the values. But given that it`s mid July, these values are quite typical. Late Thursday, the beginnings of another pattern change take effect with a weakening front bringing convection southward into Central Texas by late in the day. The GFS remains a bit faster than consensus, suggesting a convection arrival time by Wednesday night. We believe this may be too aggressive and that convective outflows may outrun the usefulness of the cold front when the instability reaches the area of ridging aloft. This also leaves our initial PoP periods late Thursday into early Friday as a bit on the conservative side, with the better chances of "scattered" coverage kicking in Friday afternoon. Model consensus trends back to more isolated chances Saturday into early Sunday and pick back up again in the daytime Sunday and into Monday. This rebound in PoPs appears to coincide with a frontal resurgence that could reach farther South into our area. This scenario of a stalling front and a later stronger front would suggest we`ll see daytime max temps to revert back to near normal for late Thursday into Saturday, then milder than normal Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Satellite imagery shows high clouds continue to gradually thin from west to east, with some recent low cloud development noted over the Hill Country and nearby I-35 corridor. We will continue to mention MVFR cigs for the I-35 sites between 08-15Z as low cloud continue to expand. For DRT, we have only mentioned SCT low clouds around daybreak. Low clouds will lift and mix out to VFR around 15Z as southerly winds begin to increase. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 98 75 97 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 102 79 102 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 72 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 97 76 97 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 74 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Platt Long-Term...18 Aviation...Platt