256
FXUS64 KEWX 151715
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1215 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A slow warming trend will take place through early this week as the
subtropical ridge centered over the western United States slowly
builds southward into the southern Rockies. Near the surface, we
will see continued south to southeasterly winds along with a fairly
stout low-level thermal ridge. Some late night and early morning low
clouds can be expected, but a gradual decrease in mid and upper
level clouds is anticipated. Look for highs to generally stay in the
lower to upper 90s today, with a nudge upward into the mid 90s to
near 100 degrees on Tuesday. We will keep the forecast dry today and
Tuesday as the global and hi-res models are reluctant to show much
in the way of convective development. We will continue to monitor
out west along the Rio Grande and into the coastal plains, but
confidence is not high enough to mention any precipitation chances
just yet.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The mid to upper level shear axis stuck over TX finally gets nudged
by an expanding upper ridge southeastward to the coast by Wednesday
and offshore Thursday. The upper ridge doesn`t appear to have much
staying power over Central TX for some reason, and an amplification
of central CONUS troughing works its way back into TX by late
Thursday.

The warming trend with slightly above normal continues in the first
couple days of the long term period, and a light south breeze and
elevated RH will make Wednesday and Thursday afternoons the most
uncomfortable in terms of the heat index. We suspect a few spots
along/east of I-35 could briefly climb over 108 to reach advisory
criteria, but for not enough time or percentage of the area to issue
the product. With some continuity shown in the model projections, we
will now have it messaged in the HWO, and when the time come, perhaps
have a SPS to account for the values. But given that it`s mid July,
these values are quite typical.

Late Thursday, the beginnings of another pattern change take effect
with a weakening front bringing convection southward into Central
Texas by late in the day. The GFS remains a bit faster than
consensus, suggesting a convection arrival time by Wednesday night.
We believe this may be too aggressive and that convective outflows
may outrun the usefulness of the cold front when the instability
reaches the area of ridging aloft. This also leaves our initial PoP
periods late Thursday into early Friday as a bit on the conservative
side, with the better chances of "scattered" coverage kicking in
Friday afternoon. Model consensus trends back to more isolated
chances Saturday into early Sunday and pick back up again in the
daytime Sunday and into Monday. This rebound in PoPs appears to
coincide with a frontal resurgence that could reach farther South
into our area. This scenario of a stalling front and a later stronger
front would suggest we`ll see daytime max temps to revert back to
near normal for late Thursday into Saturday, then milder than normal
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for local area terminals through Tuesday
evening. Southeast to south winds 8 to 12 knots are likely for the
rest of today and evening then diminishing to 8 knots of less
overnight. Wind speeds come up to about 10 knots or so on Tuesday
afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  98  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  98  75  98 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            73  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 102  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             71  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  97  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  95  75  95 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  97  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74  98  77  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...17
Aviation...17