![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
287 FOUS30 KWBC 071557 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1157 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Day 1 Valid 16Z Sun Jul 07 2024 - 12Z Mon Jul 08 2024 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL TEXAS... 16Z Update... ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana... Beryl still has a landfall forecast prior to 12Z Monday on the middle TX Coast (please see the NHC website for the latest information). The most outer band is roughly along the entirety of the TX Coast here at 16Z (only spotty heavy rain with this though) with the inner core picked up on regional NEXRAD heading toward the middle TX Coast. Updated timing from recent HRRRs allows some updates to the Day 1 coverages. The inner core rainfall should exceed 7" over much of the middle TX Coast by 12Z, warranting the Moderate Risk from Rockport to Freeport an points north. However, there is increased confidence on inflow bands to the right of the track spreading up as far east as Galveston Bay and up through the Houston metro starting around 08Z. In coordination with WFO HGX, the Moderate Risk has been expanded through the immediate Houston metro and now extends from San Antonio Bay to Galveston Bay. The Marginal Risk still does not extend down all of Padre Island with the 12Z CAM consensus for heaviest rainfall to be east from Oso Bay where the Slight Risk begins. On the east side, far outer bands will cross southwest LA, warranting maintenance of the Marginal Risk there as well as the Slight Risk from Galveston Bay to the Sabine River/TX-LA border. ...Southern Plains to the central High Plains and to the Upper Midwest... Organized convection/MCS is over central OK and tracking southeast which is more progressive/farther southeast than most any HREF CAM guidance had depicted. This should focus the heaviest redevelopment later today to be farther south over southwest OK into Northwest TX this afternoon/evening and less so over KS. The best guidance so far seems to be the 12Z NAMnest if it is considered 3-4 hours too slow this morning. This served as a guide to remove the Slight Risk for most of KS and maintain the Slight Risk for much of OK into Northwest TX where southerly low level flow looks to maintain 1.75" PW. Farther north, greater synoptic forcing is present with the upper trough extending from an upper low over northern MN to the southwest over the central Dakotas and extending to the central High Plains. Redevelopment of activity over the central High Plains this afternoon/evening looks to track south over eastern CO where the Marginal Risk was expanded. Downstream is a broken swath of expected heavy rainfall in the moist southwesterly flow ahead of the trough axis over eastern KS, northern MO, much of IA and into southwest WI and western IL where the Marginal Risk was expanded a bit. Even farther north, ahead of the upper low, redevelopment around western Lake Superior raises an isolated flash flood threat for the Arrowhead of MN, around through Duluth to northern WI and far western U.P. of MI where a Marginal Risk was introduced. ...Southeast... A stalled frontal boundary across the region will be the focus for convection which will maintain an isolated threat for flash flooding concerns. PWs will remain above the climatological 90th percentile, and layered IVT suggest we may see some mid/upper level moisture connection to Beryl. The intrusion of tropical moisture may help bolster rainfall efficiency in what will already be a favorable environment for heavy rainfall rates. A Marginal Risk remains in effect for a majority of the Southeast region for this period with a minor expansion over western NC terrain up to the VA border per recent HRRR runs. Jackson Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 08 2024 - 12Z Tue Jul 09 2024 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS... The National Hurricane Center has Beryl tracking north/northeast through eastern Texas. The guidance continues to suggest a fairly compact storm, therefore the QPF swath is expected to be relatively narrow and oriented N-S along and slightly east of the storm track. WPC has areal average QPF ranging from 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximums in the double digits. Given the adjustment to the NHC storm track and the new WPC QPF, the inherited risk areas were all shifted as follows. The Moderate Risk spans from Port Lavaca to east of Galveston Bay and northward into southwest Arkansas. The Slight Risk spans from San Antonio Bay to west of Vermilion Bay and northward into central Arkansas. The Marginal Risk spans from east of Corpus Christi to Atchafalaya Bay and from the Texas Panhandle to Southern Missouri, tied to the frontal boundary to the north. Note that the placements of the Excessive Risk areas will largely be dependent on the NHC track so stay tuned for future adjustments. ...Southeast... Convection in proximity to the lingering frontal boundary will persist across the Southeast; therefore maintained the Marginal Risk area. Recent rains have increased soil saturation levels and with additional showers and thunderstorms expected the threat for isolated flooding concerns will remain elevated for this part of the country, despite the lower QPF signal in the guidance. Will gain more insight once we move into the CAM window, and also with better clarity on the speed of recurvature of Beryl. Fracasso/Campbell Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 09 2024 - 12Z Wed Jul 10 2024 ...Mississippi Valley and Midwest... Beryl is expected to quickly phase with an upper trough and surface front to the north, which lead to a significant change from the previous forecast. These features should lead to the potential for heavy rain causing flash flooding concerns over some areas from eastern Texas northeastward through Wednesday. At this time, the higher QPF amounts focus over northwest Arkansas to central Illinois with the highest over the Ozarks. Areal averages are expected to be around 2 to 5 inches with local maximums upwards of 8 inches. A Slight Risk extends from northwest Arkansas to central Illinois. A Marginal Risk stretches from the central Gulf Coast northward to northern Illinois and southern Michigan. Again, an future adjustments will likely be dependent on the latest NHC track for Beryl. ...Southwest... Some moisture may feed into the Southwest and southern Colorado in a monsoonal pattern. A Marginal Risk was maintained for most of New Mexico, southeast Arizona and south-central Colorado for this period considering sensitivities due to burn scars and areas that have seen ample rainfall recently. ...Southeast... Given the abundant moisture over the region and some model are signaling for locally heavy rainfall, especially for eastern portions of Florida. General consensus suggests 1 to 2 inches although local maximums of 3 to 4+ inches will certainly possible. A Marginal Risk remain in effect for portions of central/northern Florida and southeast Georgia. ...Northeast... Interaction of moisture ahead of Beryl and a front settling over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England may favor heavy rainfall potential over this region. Some focus of the convective rain ahead of the front(s) and sufficient instability for heavy rain rates in the northern Mid-Atlantic to Northeast favor of a Marginal Risk. Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt