Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
273 FNUS74 KEPZ 132053 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for Lolo Fire...GNF National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 253 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on July 14. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Low fire weather concerns are expected through the period. Relatively dry conditions remain in place this weekend with min RH values in the upper teens for the burn area. However, light variable winds under 6 mph winds are forecast for Sunday. Moisture increases on Monday and through the week, resulting in better rain chances and potential for flash flooding later in the week. Other than outflow boundaries, winds will be light to modestly breezy from the from the east. Temperatures remain near or just above normal for the first half of the week with a slight cool down thereafter. Day time vent rates are expected to be good to very good. .SUNDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Isolated showers and thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3 until 1500, then 4. Max temperature.....Around 85. Min humidity........15 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph early in the afternoon, then becoming light late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mixing height.......11100 ft AGL increasing to 11800 ft AGL late in the afternoon. Transport winds.....West around 10 mph shifting to the east 9 to 11 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11400 knot-ft) increasing to very good (105300 knot-ft) in the late morning and afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........9 9 8 45 45 52 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10 20 20 30 LAL.............1 1 1 6 6 4 Temp............61 66 76 82 83 83 RH..............39 36 25 18 16 15 20 ft wind......W 3 W 3 NW 4 NE 5 NE 5 E 4 20 ft wind gust.9 9 12 15 15 14 Mix hgt (ft)....1400 1400 11100 11100 11800 11800 Transport wind..W 10 W 10 NE 11 NE 11 E 9 E 9 Haines index....3 3 3 3 4 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..11 11 112 112 105 105 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD VYGD VYGD VYGD .SUNDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of pcpn......40 percent. LAL.................4 until 2400, then 1. Min temperature.....Around 60. Max humidity........51 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the late evening and overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the evening. Mixing height.......0 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South around 9 mph shifting to the west 8 to 10 mph in the late evening and overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Good (69000 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........58 58 55 46 46 31 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 40 10 10 10 LAL.............4 4 4 1 1 1 Temp............82 74 70 65 63 61 RH..............15 26 31 45 50 51 20 ft wind......S 4 S 4 W 5 W 5 W 5 W 5 20 ft wind gust.13 13 12 12 12 10 Mix hgt (ft)....9900 9900 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 Transport wind..S 9 S 9 W 8 W 8 NW 10 NW 10 Haines index....6 5 4 3 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..69 69 0 0 0 0 Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR .MONDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......60 percent. LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4. Max temperature.....Around 83. Min humidity........19 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the north around 6 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mixing height.......800 ft AGL increasing to 11300 ft AGL in the late morning and afternoon. Transport winds.....North 8 to 9 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6200 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (78900 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........16 16 44 82 Weather cov.....NONE NONE LIKELY LIKELY Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 60 60 LAL.............1 1 5 5 Temp............60 67 81 82 RH..............51 42 22 20 20 FT wind......W 5G12 NW 5G15 N 6G16 NW 6G16 Mix hgt (ft)....800 800 10800 11300 Transport wind..NW 9 NW 9 N 8 N 8 Haines index....3 3 3 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..6 6 75 79 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD $$ Forecaster...LUNDEEN Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2417826.9/EPZ .DELDT 07/13/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov