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Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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427 FXUS64 KEPZ 160538 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1138 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 141 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Drier air will continue to filter in tomorrow, limiting shower and thunderstorm potential. Temperatures will increase by a degree or two areawide, with most lowland areas seeing highs near and above 100 degrees. Hot temperatures and mostly dry conditions will persist through the weekend and into next week. Storm chances will remain limited and will favor the western high terrain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Upper high in the Pacific has begun to nose its way into the Desert Southwest, allowing for hot and dry weather to prevail. Models have backed off on the high`s strength moving into Friday, with probabilities for temperatures reaching and exceeding 105F falling around and below 30 percent. The heat lingers into Saturday and while probabilities are low that max temps will hit Heat Advisory criteria, brief and localized instances of temps near and slightly above 105F are possible Friday and Saturday, especially in the El Paso metro. High pressure will wobble around NM through the weekend and into next week, the strength and position of which will work to limit convection. As the high drifts eastward towards the Panhandles on Saturday, moisture will snake up its western periphery, but the majority of convection will favor AZ. The high retrogrades and strengthens into next week, achieving a stout 599dam height as it works to center itself over Los Alamos Co. With the high hanging out in north-central NM, the monsoon plume will be pushed well to our west in AZ, with little to no chance for storms. Model consensus starts to deteriorate Wednesday, with the GFS allowing the high to migrate back towards the Panhandles, with decreasing pressure heights on tap for southern NM and far west TX. The ECMWF, however, paints a less rosy picture, intensifying the high to 600dam and bringing it south over Catron and Socorro counties. This would put very hot temperatures on the horizon for the Borderland come midweek into Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Only a few lingering showers present over the area but should continue to diminish tonight and are not expected to impact terminals. Light southerly to southwesterly winds persist overnight becoming just a tad breezy heading into the afternoon hours. Monsoonal thunderstorms are expected to initiate over the area mountains around 18Z, spreading to portions of the lowlands by mid afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 141 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected during the forecast period, though elevated conditions will exist due to increasing dryness. Relative humidity values will plummet below 15 percent for most lowland areas, with dry conditions increasing in coverage through next week. Overnight recoveries will also trend down, with widespread fair recoveries through the weekend and some zones seeing as low as poor into next week. Weak flow aloft will persist thanks to upper level high pressure, which will allow for surface winds to remain light with directions generally influenced by terrain. Vent rates will improve to good to excellent towards the weekend and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 79 104 78 104 / 10 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 70 95 69 95 / 20 10 10 10 Las Cruces 72 103 74 103 / 10 0 10 0 Alamogordo 72 101 72 100 / 10 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 57 77 56 76 / 10 30 10 20 Truth or Consequences 72 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 67 93 68 93 / 10 10 10 20 Deming 70 102 71 101 / 10 0 10 0 Lordsburg 70 100 72 100 / 10 0 10 20 West El Paso Metro 78 102 79 101 / 10 0 10 0 Dell City 72 101 71 101 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 73 102 74 102 / 20 10 10 0 Loma Linda 71 95 71 95 / 10 10 10 10 Fabens 74 101 76 101 / 10 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 74 100 75 100 / 10 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 76 101 76 101 / 10 0 10 10 Jornada Range 72 101 72 100 / 10 0 10 10 Hatch 71 103 71 103 / 10 0 10 10 Columbus 74 101 74 100 / 10 0 10 0 Orogrande 72 100 72 100 / 10 10 10 10 Mayhill 60 88 59 87 / 10 20 10 20 Mescalero 60 89 59 88 / 0 30 10 20 Timberon 59 86 59 86 / 10 20 10 10 Winston 63 92 62 91 / 10 10 10 10 Hillsboro 69 99 70 98 / 10 0 10 10 Spaceport 69 100 70 100 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 61 92 62 92 / 10 20 10 30 Hurley 67 97 67 96 / 10 10 10 10 Cliff 68 103 68 103 / 10 10 10 20 Mule Creek 68 96 69 96 / 0 10 10 20 Faywood 69 96 69 96 / 10 10 10 10 Animas 70 100 71 100 / 10 10 20 20 Hachita 69 99 70 99 / 0 0 10 10 Antelope Wells 68 98 69 98 / 10 10 10 10 Cloverdale 65 93 66 92 / 10 20 20 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira