Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
175 FXUS64 KEPZ 020450 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1050 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 955 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Thunderstorm coverage increases Wednesday and Thursday as upper level dynamics improve while deep moisture remains. - Drier air will move in for Friday through Sunday. - Temperatures will be below normal through Friday, then will warm back up to above normal this weekend. Some areas will reach 100 degrees again along the Rio Grande Lower Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 955 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 For tonight, scattered to broken clouds persist as deeper moisture moves in from the east associated with an inverted trough. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms develop over eastern areas by the early morning, spreading westward towards the RGV. Most of the rain should be light-moderate intensity through Wed AM as the low/thick clouds keep eastern areas more stable for Wednesday afternoon. PWs continue to climb for Wednesday, reaching 1.3-1.5" through the overnight. A Flood Watch has been issued for much of southern NM for Wed afternoon and overnight due to the high moisture content and forcing aloft. The inverted trough gets swept up into the western upper low, allowing for better lift across the region into Wed night. Wed afternoon will be relatively quiet with scattered mountain and isolated lowland activity. HREF guidance shows rain rates of 1-2" per hour from storms Wed night as activity progresses eastward out of AZ ahead of a shortwave. Areas from Deming west are most favored to see heavy rainfall (up to 4" within 2-3 hours) and flash flooding. Less forcing and instability is available for far west TX Wed night. On Thursday, the upper trough begins to lift to the northeast and bring in drier air for northwestern areas. Better moisture and forcing will be concentrated to the east with another Flood Watch possible. PWs remain well above normal east of the RGV Thursday with moderate instability (1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE). Fortunately, storm motions should be a bit faster and lower the flash flood threat somewhat. Strong winds are not as much of a concern through Thursday due to lower dew point depressions and higher moisture content. The rain threat largely ends Thursday night as the dry air aloft sweeps through the CWA behind the trough. Heading into the weekend, the monsoon high sets up over NM, keeping rain/storm chances very low (PWs dropping to near or slightly below normal). The 4th of July looks dry overall as the moisture is shoved to the south and east. Isolated storms are still possible in the mountains due to orographic lifting through Sunday. Moisture returns to start the new workweek as the upper high drifts a touch north. Several minor impulses push into our area from the east starting on Monday, bringing isolated to scattered storms and typical monsoon activity. Temperatures stay below normal through Thursday, warming to near or slightly above average this weekend under the upper high. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 955 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 CIGs descend this morning, as low as MVFR criteria, for the southern three terminals as moisture increases from the east. Lowest CIGs of 020-030 expected by late morning, favoring KELP, before rising during the afternoon to around 050 or above. Low chance of -SHRA moving into KELP and KLRU this morning as the clouds lower. Confidence in showers or storms is too low for any mention for Wednesday PM due to the extensive cloud cover modeled. KDMN and KTCS are most likely to see TS late in the period. Other than occasional gusts up to 20kts at KELP in the near term, winds will be AOB 10kts from E-SE. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1115 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Minimal fire concerns are anticipated through Friday with monsoonal moisture in place. Storm coverage/chances will be highest on Wednesday before decreasing Thursday. By Saturday, drier air will arrive along with increasing temperatures, which will send minimum RH values into the mid and lower teens (below 15%) for much of the desert lowlands. The drier air and high pressure aloft will all but shut down rain chances for Friday and Saturday. On Sunday, moisture begins to creep back in though mainly for areas east of the Rio Grande, with low rain/storm chances back in the picture. While we are at our driest, winds will be light thanks to high pressure aloft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 85 69 86 71 / 40 30 50 70 Sierra Blanca 76 63 78 63 / 70 50 80 80 Las Cruces 85 64 84 66 / 40 30 40 70 Alamogordo 83 64 83 65 / 50 30 60 60 Cloudcroft 59 47 60 48 / 70 40 80 60 Truth or Consequences 86 66 86 67 / 30 40 50 60 Silver City 82 58 80 59 / 30 40 80 80 Deming 89 66 87 67 / 20 30 50 80 Lordsburg 90 66 88 66 / 20 30 60 70 West El Paso Metro 84 69 83 71 / 40 30 50 70 Dell City 80 66 81 67 / 60 50 80 70 Fort Hancock 83 68 84 70 / 70 40 70 70 Loma Linda 76 62 76 64 / 50 30 70 70 Fabens 85 68 84 69 / 50 30 50 70 Santa Teresa 84 67 83 69 / 40 30 50 70 White Sands HQ 85 68 83 69 / 30 30 50 70 Jornada Range 85 65 83 67 / 40 30 50 70 Hatch 87 66 87 68 / 30 40 50 70 Columbus 88 68 86 69 / 20 30 30 70 Orogrande 83 66 81 67 / 40 30 60 70 Mayhill 67 53 68 53 / 80 50 90 60 Mescalero 71 52 72 52 / 60 40 80 60 Timberon 68 50 68 51 / 60 40 80 60 Winston 79 54 78 55 / 40 40 70 70 Hillsboro 85 61 84 63 / 30 40 70 70 Spaceport 85 64 84 65 / 40 40 50 60 Lake Roberts 84 55 81 57 / 40 40 80 80 Hurley 85 60 83 61 / 30 40 70 80 Cliff 91 63 88 64 / 40 40 70 70 Mule Creek 87 60 85 61 / 50 40 70 60 Faywood 84 61 81 63 / 30 40 70 70 Animas 90 66 88 67 / 10 20 60 70 Hachita 87 65 86 65 / 20 20 50 80 Antelope Wells 88 64 86 64 / 20 20 70 80 Cloverdale 86 63 83 62 / 10 20 70 80 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes- Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson