427
FXUS64 KEPZ 160538
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1138 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Drier air will continue to filter in tomorrow, limiting shower and
thunderstorm potential. Temperatures will increase by a degree or
two areawide, with most lowland areas seeing highs near and above
100 degrees. Hot temperatures and mostly dry conditions will
persist through the weekend and into next week. Storm chances will
remain limited and will favor the western high terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Upper high in the Pacific has begun to nose its way into the Desert
Southwest, allowing for hot and dry weather to prevail. Models
have backed off on the high`s strength moving into Friday, with
probabilities for temperatures reaching and exceeding 105F falling
around and below 30 percent. The heat lingers into Saturday and
while probabilities are low that max temps will hit Heat Advisory
criteria, brief and localized instances of temps near and
slightly above 105F are possible Friday and Saturday, especially
in the El Paso metro.

High pressure will wobble around NM through the weekend and into
next week, the strength and position of which will work to limit
convection. As the high drifts eastward towards the Panhandles on
Saturday, moisture will snake up its western periphery, but the
majority of convection will favor AZ. The high retrogrades and
strengthens into next week, achieving a stout 599dam height as it
works to center itself over Los Alamos Co. With the high hanging out
in north-central NM, the monsoon plume will be pushed well to our
west in AZ, with little to no chance for storms. Model consensus
starts to deteriorate Wednesday, with the GFS allowing the high to
migrate back towards the Panhandles, with decreasing pressure
heights on tap for southern NM and far west TX. The ECMWF, however,
paints a less rosy picture, intensifying the high to 600dam and
bringing it south over Catron and Socorro counties. This would put
very hot temperatures on the horizon for the Borderland come
midweek into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Only a few lingering showers present over the area but should
continue to diminish tonight and are not expected to impact
terminals. Light southerly to southwesterly winds persist overnight
becoming just a tad breezy heading into the afternoon hours.
Monsoonal thunderstorms are expected to initiate over the area
mountains around 18Z, spreading to portions of the lowlands by mid
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected during the
forecast period, though elevated conditions will exist due to
increasing dryness. Relative humidity values will plummet below 15
percent for most lowland areas, with dry conditions increasing in
coverage through next week. Overnight recoveries will also trend
down, with widespread fair recoveries through the weekend and
some zones seeing as low as poor into next week. Weak flow aloft
will persist thanks to upper level high pressure, which will allow
for surface winds to remain light with directions generally
influenced by terrain. Vent rates will improve to good to
excellent towards the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  79 104  78 104 /  10   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            70  95  69  95 /  20  10  10  10
Las Cruces               72 103  74 103 /  10   0  10   0
Alamogordo               72 101  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
Cloudcroft               57  77  56  76 /  10  30  10  20
Truth or Consequences    72 100  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              67  93  68  93 /  10  10  10  20
Deming                   70 102  71 101 /  10   0  10   0
Lordsburg                70 100  72 100 /  10   0  10  20
West El Paso Metro       78 102  79 101 /  10   0  10   0
Dell City                72 101  71 101 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             73 102  74 102 /  20  10  10   0
Loma Linda               71  95  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
Fabens                   74 101  76 101 /  10   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             74 100  75 100 /  10   0  10   0
White Sands HQ           76 101  76 101 /  10   0  10  10
Jornada Range            72 101  72 100 /  10   0  10  10
Hatch                    71 103  71 103 /  10   0  10  10
Columbus                 74 101  74 100 /  10   0  10   0
Orogrande                72 100  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
Mayhill                  60  88  59  87 /  10  20  10  20
Mescalero                60  89  59  88 /   0  30  10  20
Timberon                 59  86  59  86 /  10  20  10  10
Winston                  63  92  62  91 /  10  10  10  10
Hillsboro                69  99  70  98 /  10   0  10  10
Spaceport                69 100  70 100 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             61  92  62  92 /  10  20  10  30
Hurley                   67  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10
Cliff                    68 103  68 103 /  10  10  10  20
Mule Creek               68  96  69  96 /   0  10  10  20
Faywood                  69  96  69  96 /  10  10  10  10
Animas                   70 100  71 100 /  10  10  20  20
Hachita                  69  99  70  99 /   0   0  10  10
Antelope Wells           68  98  69  98 /  10  10  10  10
Cloverdale               65  93  66  92 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira