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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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385 FXUS64 KEPZ 161133 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 533 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 205 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected in the lowlands through the period with the afternoon high temperatures above the normal. The temperatures for El Paso and the Lower Valley could reach heat advisory today and on Saturday. There will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and areas along the Continental Divide through the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Currently, the skies are mostly clear with just a few clouds across the Bootheel and parts of the Grant and the Sierra Counties. Conditions now are much quieter than they were last evening especially for EL Paso as we had a few storms rolling in across this area. For today, conditions will not be so for El Paso as a ridge of high pressure will be centered across New Mexico. However, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly in the mountains and along the Continental Divide as a disturbance undercuts this ridge. With the ridge of high pressure in place, the temperatures especially in the lowlands will be in the triple digits. The high temperatures this afternoon for El Paso and the Lower Valley will be near or at the criteria. Due to this, a heat Advisory has be issued for the the aforementioned areas from midday today through Saturday night. For tonight, any remaining storms should diminish before midnight as the atmosphere becomes stable. For Saturday, the upper level ridge will strengthens and moves slightly further north across northern New Mexico. The 850 mb temperature across El Paso and it`s surrounding area will be around 93. With this temperature in place at this level suggests that the afternoon high temperatures at the surface for El Paso and even the Lower Valley could reach to 105 degrees. Also, a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the Continental Divide as there will be sufficient moisture and instability across that area. For the rest of the period, conditions will be mostly quiet in the lowlands, but active in the mountains and areas alone the Divide. The center of the ridge of high pressure will move into the Plains on Sunday. This will allow for the temperatures to cool a few degrees. However, with an amplified ridge in place, showers and thunderstorms will be limited to areas far west of the Rio Grande. By Monday, the center of this ridge will maneuver across the NM/TX border. The temperatures by then will continue to be in the lower 100s for much of lowlands. The ridge axis will move across New Mexico by the middle of next week while continuing to be amplified across the Rockies. The heights will be around 597; thus, the temperature could reach another criteria level on Wednesday. Toward the end of next week, the ridge will gradually elongate while moisture returns to much of the area. With that being said, the chances for showers and thunderstorms may move back across the lowlands by next Friday. Also, both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models are suggesting a tropical or sub- tropical system could develop by the middle to the end of next week somewhere across the Southeast. There are hints that this system may move westward that will increase our storm chances next weekend. However, this development is still far ways out and the there are some uncertainties. More on this as we get closer to this event. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW110-BKN250. There will be periods of SKC. The winds will be generally light below 10 kts and from the southeast through 12Z Saturday. There maybe some gust of up to 18 kts at KTCS between 22 and 00Z Saturday (not mentioned in the TAF due to uncertainty). There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected for much of the lowlands today. However the conditions in the mountains and areas along the Continental Divide will become active this afternoon. There will be sufficient moisture in place to aide in the a few showers and thunderstorms across the aforementioned areas. The main concerns with these storms will flooding and gusty winds with frequent lightning. The 20ft winds will be light to breezy and temperatures above the normal. These storms will diminish before midnight. Tonight recovery will be fair to very good. For Saturday, similar conditions to today are expected except for much of the moisture will be confined towards the NM/AZ border. Any storms that do develop will be along the Continental Divide. For the rest of the period, there will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across the mountains and areas far west of the Rio Grande. The temperatures will be above the average and the winds generally light to breezy except in and around thunderstorms. With that said, there will be no fire weather concerns through the period. The min RHs for today and on Saturday will be between 14 and 20% in the lowlands and between 25 and 36% in the mountains. The ventilation rates will be fair to very good today then good to excellent on Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 105 79 105 79 / 10 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 95 68 95 68 / 10 10 10 0 Las Cruces 103 73 102 73 / 0 10 0 10 Alamogordo 100 70 100 68 / 10 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 76 55 77 53 / 30 10 20 0 Truth or Consequences 100 72 100 72 / 10 10 0 10 Silver City 94 67 93 66 / 30 20 30 30 Deming 102 72 102 72 / 0 10 0 20 Lordsburg 100 72 100 71 / 10 10 20 30 West El Paso Metro 102 78 102 78 / 10 10 0 10 Dell City 102 71 102 70 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 102 72 102 73 / 10 10 0 0 Loma Linda 95 71 95 70 / 10 10 10 0 Fabens 102 75 102 75 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 100 75 100 75 / 0 10 0 10 White Sands HQ 102 76 102 75 / 10 10 10 10 Jornada Range 101 72 101 71 / 10 10 10 10 Hatch 104 71 103 70 / 10 10 10 10 Columbus 101 74 101 75 / 0 10 0 10 Orogrande 100 72 100 70 / 10 10 10 0 Mayhill 89 59 88 57 / 30 10 20 0 Mescalero 89 59 89 57 / 30 10 30 0 Timberon 87 57 87 55 / 20 10 20 0 Winston 92 61 92 60 / 20 10 20 20 Hillsboro 99 69 99 68 / 10 10 10 20 Spaceport 100 69 100 69 / 10 10 10 10 Lake Roberts 92 60 92 60 / 40 20 40 30 Hurley 97 67 96 66 / 20 10 10 20 Cliff 104 67 103 66 / 20 20 30 20 Mule Creek 97 68 96 68 / 20 20 20 30 Faywood 97 70 96 69 / 20 10 10 20 Animas 101 70 100 70 / 10 20 20 30 Hachita 100 70 99 70 / 0 10 10 20 Antelope Wells 99 68 98 68 / 10 10 20 20 Cloverdale 94 66 92 65 / 20 20 30 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to midnight MDT Saturday night for TXZ418-419-423-424. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira