907
FXUS64 KEPZ 161745
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1145 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected in the lowlands
through the period with the afternoon high temperatures above the
normal. The temperatures for El Paso and the Lower Valley could
reach heat advisory today and on Saturday. There will be daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and areas
along the Continental Divide through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Currently, the skies are mostly clear with just a few clouds
across the Bootheel and parts of the Grant and the Sierra
Counties. Conditions now are much quieter than they were last
evening especially for EL Paso as we had a few storms rolling in
across this area. For today, conditions will not be so for El
Paso as a ridge of high pressure will be centered across New
Mexico. However, there will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms mainly in the mountains and along the Continental
Divide as a disturbance undercuts this ridge. With the ridge of
high pressure in place, the temperatures especially in the
lowlands will be in the triple digits. The high temperatures this
afternoon for El Paso and the Lower Valley will be near or at the
criteria. Due to this, a heat Advisory has be issued for the the
aforementioned areas from midday today through Saturday night.
For tonight, any remaining storms should diminish before midnight
as the atmosphere becomes stable. For Saturday, the upper level
ridge will strengthens and moves slightly further north across
northern New Mexico. The 850 mb temperature across El Paso and
it`s surrounding area will be around 93. With this temperature in
place at this level suggests that the afternoon high temperatures
at the surface for El Paso and even the Lower Valley could reach
to 105 degrees. Also, a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms
will be possible along the Continental Divide as there will be
sufficient moisture and instability across that area.

For the rest of the period, conditions will be mostly quiet in the
lowlands, but active in the mountains and areas alone the Divide.
The center of the ridge of high pressure will move into the Plains
on Sunday. This will allow for the temperatures to cool a few
degrees. However, with an amplified ridge in place, showers and
thunderstorms will be limited to areas far west of the Rio Grande.
By Monday, the center of this ridge will maneuver across the
NM/TX border. The temperatures by then will continue to be in the
lower 100s for much of lowlands. The ridge axis will move across
New Mexico by the middle of next week while continuing to be
amplified across the Rockies. The heights will be around 597;
thus, the temperature could reach another criteria level on
Wednesday. Toward the end of next week, the ridge will gradually
elongate while moisture returns to much of the area. With that
being said, the chances for showers and thunderstorms may move
back across the lowlands by next Friday. Also, both the GFS and
ECMWF deterministic models are suggesting a tropical or sub-
tropical system could develop by the middle to the end of next
week somewhere across the Southeast. There are hints that this
system may move westward that will increase our storm chances next
weekend. However, this development is still far ways out and the
there are some uncertainties. More on this as we get closer to
this event.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions with SKC-FEW110/250, perhaps SCT. Winds will remain
light and variable through the period with direction favoring
SE`LY. TSRA/SHRA cannot entirely be ruled out this afternoon and
early evening, but probability for impacts (except outflows) are
too low to warrant mention in TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected for much of the
lowlands today. However the conditions in the mountains and areas
along the Continental Divide will become active this afternoon.
There will be sufficient moisture in place to aide in the a few
showers and thunderstorms across the aforementioned areas. The
main concerns with these storms will flooding and gusty winds with
frequent lightning. The 20ft winds will be light to breezy and
temperatures above the normal. These storms will diminish before
midnight. Tonight recovery will be fair to very good. For
Saturday, similar conditions to today are expected except for much
of the moisture will be confined towards the NM/AZ border. Any
storms that do develop will be along the Continental Divide. For
the rest of the period, there will be daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms across the mountains and areas far west of the
Rio Grande. The temperatures will be above the average and the
winds generally light to breezy except in and around
thunderstorms. With that said, there will be no fire weather
concerns through the period.

The min RHs for today and on Saturday will be between 14 and 20%
in the lowlands and between 25 and 36% in the mountains. The
ventilation rates will be fair to very good today then good to
excellent on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 105  79 105  79 /  10  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            95  68  95  68 /  10  10  10   0
Las Cruces              103  73 102  73 /   0  10   0  10
Alamogordo              100  70 100  68 /  10  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               76  55  77  53 /  30  10  20   0
Truth or Consequences   100  72 100  72 /  10  10   0  10
Silver City              94  67  93  66 /  30  20  30  30
Deming                  102  72 102  72 /   0  10   0  20
Lordsburg               100  72 100  71 /  10  10  20  30
West El Paso Metro      102  78 102  78 /  10  10   0  10
Dell City               102  71 102  70 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            102  72 102  73 /  10  10   0   0
Loma Linda               95  71  95  70 /  10  10  10   0
Fabens                  102  75 102  75 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Teresa            100  75 100  75 /   0  10   0  10
White Sands HQ          102  76 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
Jornada Range           101  72 101  71 /  10  10  10  10
Hatch                   104  71 103  70 /  10  10  10  10
Columbus                101  74 101  75 /   0  10   0  10
Orogrande               100  72 100  70 /  10  10  10   0
Mayhill                  89  59  88  57 /  30  10  20   0
Mescalero                89  59  89  57 /  30  10  30   0
Timberon                 87  57  87  55 /  20  10  20   0
Winston                  92  61  92  60 /  20  10  20  20
Hillsboro                99  69  99  68 /  10  10  10  20
Spaceport               100  69 100  69 /  10  10  10  10
Lake Roberts             92  60  92  60 /  40  20  40  30
Hurley                   97  67  96  66 /  20  10  10  20
Cliff                   104  67 103  66 /  20  20  30  20
Mule Creek               97  68  96  68 /  20  20  20  30
Faywood                  97  70  96  69 /  20  10  10  20
Animas                  101  70 100  70 /  10  20  20  30
Hachita                 100  70  99  70 /   0  10  10  20
Antelope Wells           99  68  98  68 /  10  10  20  20
Cloverdale               94  66  92  65 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Saturday night for TXZ418-419-
     423-424.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown