Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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694 FXUS64 KEPZ 162003 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 203 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Hot weather will continue with below normal storm coverage. Thunderstorm chances will mainly be limited to the mountains with only few to isolated coverage in the lowlands. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Subtropical area of high pressure has found its home across the Desert Southwest. This pattern means hot temperatures and below normal coverage for thunderstorms. The high is centered over NM today but will gradually migrate to the northeast, while expanding. It will be centered near the OK Panhandle by Monday, but as we head into next week the low will migrate back to the west across NM. Precip chances will largely be confined to mountains with only a few cells making it into the lowlands, with a bit better coverage toward the AZ border. Gusty winds will be the main threat given the high temperature-dew point spreads. Even drier air will work into the area for next week, further limiting storm chances. Temperatures will be hottest today and tomorrow before "cooling" a few degrees as the high migrates to the northeast. The current heat advisory looks good. Temperatures will warm again, however, as the high returns to New Mexico. Just 38 days until Fall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions with SKC-FEW110/250, perhaps SCT. Winds will remain light and variable through the period with direction favoring SE`LY. TSRA/SHRA cannot entirely be ruled out this afternoon and early evening, but probability for impacts (except outflows) are too low to warrant mention in TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Above normal temperatures and below normal storm coverage will be the rule through the period. Isolated to widely scattered storms will mainly be confined to area mountains. Given the low min RH values, isolated dry lightning cannot be ruled out. For the lowlands, chances will be mainly less than 10% with slightly better chances toward the AZ border. Min RH values will drop well into the teens given the above normal warmth. Winds will be light. Venting will range good to excellent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 78 104 79 102 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 69 96 68 94 / 0 10 0 0 Las Cruces 73 102 73 100 / 10 0 10 0 Alamogordo 70 99 68 99 / 10 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 55 75 53 75 / 10 30 0 10 Truth or Consequences 72 99 71 97 / 20 10 10 0 Silver City 67 93 66 91 / 20 30 30 10 Deming 72 101 71 99 / 10 10 20 0 Lordsburg 71 100 70 99 / 10 20 30 10 West El Paso Metro 78 101 77 100 / 10 0 10 0 Dell City 70 101 70 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 73 102 73 100 / 10 10 0 0 Loma Linda 70 95 70 93 / 10 10 0 0 Fabens 74 101 75 99 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 74 100 74 99 / 10 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 75 101 75 99 / 10 10 10 0 Jornada Range 72 100 71 99 / 10 10 10 0 Hatch 71 102 70 101 / 10 10 10 0 Columbus 73 101 73 99 / 10 0 10 0 Orogrande 71 99 71 97 / 10 10 0 0 Mayhill 59 88 56 86 / 10 30 0 10 Mescalero 58 88 56 87 / 10 30 0 10 Timberon 57 86 55 85 / 10 20 0 10 Winston 61 91 60 89 / 20 20 20 10 Hillsboro 68 98 67 96 / 20 10 20 0 Spaceport 69 99 68 98 / 10 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 60 91 59 91 / 30 40 30 10 Hurley 67 96 66 95 / 10 20 20 0 Cliff 67 103 66 102 / 20 30 30 10 Mule Creek 68 96 66 95 / 30 30 30 10 Faywood 70 96 68 94 / 10 20 30 0 Animas 70 100 69 100 / 20 30 40 10 Hachita 69 99 68 98 / 10 10 20 0 Antelope Wells 68 98 67 98 / 10 20 20 10 Cloverdale 66 93 65 93 / 20 30 30 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Saturday night for TXZ418-419- 423-424. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown