Area Forecast Discussion
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747
FXUS64 KEPZ 071214
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
531 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

 - Temperatures above normal into next weekend.

 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected daily with the
   highest chance for storms in the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

UL ridge covers much of the Desert SW this evening, but moisture
has returned to the CWA. Additionally, the GFS and WV imagery
show a weak vort max or trough axis working through NM. This weak
trough axis in addition to several outflow boundaries has led to
scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms this
evening. HRRR and to a lesser degree NAM Nest forecast convective
showers/storms will linger for several more hours likely aided by
the passing s/w.

The UL high will continue to strengthen while lifting north toward
the AZ-NM border on Monday. The placement of the high continues
to be a limiting factor for convection, but an offsetting factor
will be more ripples rounding the high along with sufficient
moisture, which will keep isolated to scattered storms in the
picture. We repeat this pattern again on Tuesday. Highs will run
near to a few degrees above normal with El Paso running near 100.

The high will start to elongate west-east on Wednesday, lasting
into Friday, while drawing drier air into NM, but enough moisture
will remain in place for isolated to scattered convection,
favoring western areas where better moisture will be. We will be
near or just over heat advisory for much of the lowlands as well
for both Thursday and Friday.

Later on Friday, a trough will drop south through the Plains, which
will weaken the eastern edge of the ridge while pushing in more
moisture. This weakness aloft looks to anchor in place for next
weekend as the aforementioned trough links up with an inverted
trough from the south. If this pattern verifies, highs should drop
while storm chances increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Shower activity continues to sag south and east across the region,
but they have cleared all the terminals for the morning hours. The
terminals will see disipating clouds through the next several
hours, with generally light winds. Thus VFR conditions are
expected through at least 22Z. Skies will be partly cloudy to
sunny, with clouds beginning to redevelop after 18z. Area
mountains will be first to see shower and storm development
between 17 and 18Z. Midday winds will favor SE in the 130-150
range and speeds will be in the 5-15kt range. AFT 22-23Z expect
increasing shower and storm development over the area lowlands,
and possibly in the vcty of, or over terminals. This could produce
short-term, tempo, MVFR conditions. High enough confidence to
include PROB30s, for these, with MVFR conditions returning, due to
variable strong outflow winds, blowing dust with these outflows,
periods of lower CIGS, and reduced vsby in rain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Not many fire weather issues to concern us. Heavy rainfall
possible this afternoon and Monday could cause flooding problems
for burn scars. Thunderstorms still possible after the remainder
of the week over the burn scars but the threat of heavy rain and
flooding will decrease. Temperatures just above normal through
Wednesday, then warming to well above normal Thursday into the
weekend.

Min RH: Lowlands east of the Rio Grande Valley 20-30% through
Thursday; Rio Grande Valley west 13-18% through Thursday.
Gila/Black Range mountains 13-20% through Thursday; Sacramento
Mtns 25-40% through Thursday. Vent rates good Monday and very
good-excellent Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 100  76 101  78 /  20  30  10  10
Sierra Blanca            90  68  92  68 /  30  20  10  10
Las Cruces               97  70  98  72 /  20  40   0  20
Alamogordo               96  71  98  70 /  40  20  20  10
Cloudcroft               72  53  74  52 /  70  10  50  10
Truth or Consequences    97  72  99  73 /  40  30  10  10
Silver City              92  65  94  67 /  40  40  40  30
Deming                  101  72 102  73 /  20  50  10  30
Lordsburg                99  70 100  72 /  30  40  20  40
West El Paso Metro       97  76  99  77 /  20  30  10  20
Dell City                95  71  96  71 /  30  10  10   0
Fort Hancock             98  75 100  75 /  30  20  10  10
Loma Linda               90  69  91  70 /  30  20  10  10
Fabens                   99  74 100  76 /  20  20  10  10
Santa Teresa             97  73  98  75 /  20  40  10  20
White Sands HQ           97  74  99  76 /  30  30  10  10
Jornada Range            97  71  99  72 /  30  40  10  20
Hatch                   100  70 102  72 /  30  40  10  20
Columbus                100  75 100  76 /  10  50  10  30
Orogrande                95  70  96  72 /  30  20  20  10
Mayhill                  82  58  83  56 /  80  10  50  10
Mescalero                84  58  85  57 /  70  10  50  10
Timberon                 79  57  81  55 /  70  10  40  10
Winston                  90  59  92  61 /  50  30  20  20
Hillsboro                97  67  98  70 /  40  40  20  20
Spaceport                97  68  98  70 /  40  30  10  10
Lake Roberts             93  61  95  62 /  50  40  40  30
Hurley                   95  65  96  67 /  40  40  30  30
Cliff                   100  68 102  69 /  40  40  30  30
Mule Creek               96  66  98  67 /  30  30  30  20
Faywood                  94  67  95  69 /  40  40  30  30
Animas                   99  71 100  72 /  30  40  20  50
Hachita                  98  70  99  71 /  20  50  20  40
Antelope Wells           97  69  99  71 /  40  60  20  50
Cloverdale               92  67  95  70 /  50  60  30  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird