Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
527 FXUS64 KEPZ 052335 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 535 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 528 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 - Temperatures climb through Sunday before decreasing some early next week, then back up mid to late next week - Moisture slowly recovers on Sunday, bringing isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances, especially west && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1040 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 An UL ridge is strengthening over Southern NM while moisture has decreased. The result will be few if any storms across the CWA while highs climb to the upper 90s and lower 100s. The ridge remains overhead for Sunday, but moisture will push in from the east though mainly for areas along and east of the Rio Grande. This will reintroduce rain/storm chances to the mainly the Sacs with low chances also along the AZ border with moisture coming up from the Sierra Madres. Moisture will continue to cycle around the high as the center of it shifts toward AZ by Monday evening. Low to moderate storm chances will return to the entire forecast area with the highest chances west of the Divide where better moisture will be. This is largely the forecast pattern expected all of next week. Models do show evidence of a s/w rounding the high Tuesday night into Wednesday. Otherwise, the high is expected to elongate, oriented west-to-east, which will bring in subtle drying while warming temperatures. The hottest days next week will be Thursday and Friday. There are hints that we will see moisture reinforced next weekend with an increase in rain/storm chances and a modest decrease in afternoon highs. Also, with the high centered to our west, this will open the door for weak disturbances to round the high through NM. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 VFR conditions prevail into Sunday afternoon. Shower and storm chances remain near zero through Sunday morning for all terminals, increasing late in the period with isolated activity developing around 21z. Tomorrow`s convection would be capable of producing gusts to 30kts and heavy downpours which could lower VIS to MVFR levels. Confidence is too low for any TS mention or PROB30s in this TAF cycle. Other than occasional gusts into upper teens Sunday afternoon, winds AOB 8kts expected with some variability. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1040 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Warmer and drier air has moved into Southern NM and Far West TX. This has led to a sharp decrease in rain/storm chances along with allowing min RH values to drop into the lower to middle teens. Winds are relatively light, however, topping out around 10 MPH with some gusts up to 20 MPH. This pattern will remain in place for Sunday; however, moisture will increase for areas east of the Rio Grande. The increase in moisture will bring rain/storm chances back to the Sacramento Mountains. Additionally, enough moisture will also be in place along the AZ border for low rain/storm chances. For Monday onwards, the monsoonal plume will be back over NM with best moisture west of the Rio Grande leading to scattered mountain and isolated to scattered lowland showers and thunderstorms, especially west. Venting will largely be good to very good each afternoon, limited mostly by weak transport flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 76 102 77 100 / 0 10 10 20 Sierra Blanca 67 93 67 91 / 0 20 10 20 Las Cruces 69 99 71 97 / 0 10 30 20 Alamogordo 69 98 71 97 / 0 20 10 40 Cloudcroft 52 75 53 73 / 0 50 10 70 Truth or Consequences 70 98 72 97 / 0 10 20 50 Silver City 64 92 65 93 / 0 20 40 70 Deming 69 101 71 101 / 0 10 40 30 Lordsburg 68 98 70 98 / 0 20 40 50 West El Paso Metro 75 100 76 98 / 0 10 20 20 Dell City 70 96 71 94 / 0 20 10 20 Fort Hancock 73 101 75 99 / 0 10 10 20 Loma Linda 68 93 69 91 / 0 10 10 30 Fabens 73 101 74 99 / 0 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 72 99 74 98 / 0 10 20 20 White Sands HQ 74 100 76 98 / 0 10 20 30 Jornada Range 69 99 71 98 / 0 10 20 40 Hatch 68 101 70 101 / 0 10 30 40 Columbus 74 101 74 100 / 0 10 40 20 Orogrande 69 97 71 96 / 0 20 10 30 Mayhill 57 84 57 82 / 0 50 10 70 Mescalero 58 85 57 85 / 0 50 10 70 Timberon 56 83 56 80 / 0 40 10 60 Winston 59 90 60 90 / 0 20 30 70 Hillsboro 66 98 67 97 / 0 10 40 60 Spaceport 66 98 69 97 / 0 10 20 50 Lake Roberts 60 93 61 93 / 10 20 40 70 Hurley 64 95 66 94 / 0 10 40 60 Cliff 66 99 67 100 / 0 20 40 60 Mule Creek 64 95 65 96 / 0 20 30 50 Faywood 66 95 67 94 / 0 10 40 60 Animas 69 98 71 98 / 10 30 50 50 Hachita 69 98 70 98 / 0 10 50 40 Antelope Wells 69 97 70 96 / 10 20 50 50 Cloverdale 67 93 68 92 / 20 40 60 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson