Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
747 FXUS64 KEPZ 071214 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 531 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - Temperatures above normal into next weekend. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected daily with the highest chance for storms in the mountains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1040 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 UL ridge covers much of the Desert SW this evening, but moisture has returned to the CWA. Additionally, the GFS and WV imagery show a weak vort max or trough axis working through NM. This weak trough axis in addition to several outflow boundaries has led to scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening. HRRR and to a lesser degree NAM Nest forecast convective showers/storms will linger for several more hours likely aided by the passing s/w. The UL high will continue to strengthen while lifting north toward the AZ-NM border on Monday. The placement of the high continues to be a limiting factor for convection, but an offsetting factor will be more ripples rounding the high along with sufficient moisture, which will keep isolated to scattered storms in the picture. We repeat this pattern again on Tuesday. Highs will run near to a few degrees above normal with El Paso running near 100. The high will start to elongate west-east on Wednesday, lasting into Friday, while drawing drier air into NM, but enough moisture will remain in place for isolated to scattered convection, favoring western areas where better moisture will be. We will be near or just over heat advisory for much of the lowlands as well for both Thursday and Friday. Later on Friday, a trough will drop south through the Plains, which will weaken the eastern edge of the ridge while pushing in more moisture. This weakness aloft looks to anchor in place for next weekend as the aforementioned trough links up with an inverted trough from the south. If this pattern verifies, highs should drop while storm chances increase. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Shower activity continues to sag south and east across the region, but they have cleared all the terminals for the morning hours. The terminals will see disipating clouds through the next several hours, with generally light winds. Thus VFR conditions are expected through at least 22Z. Skies will be partly cloudy to sunny, with clouds beginning to redevelop after 18z. Area mountains will be first to see shower and storm development between 17 and 18Z. Midday winds will favor SE in the 130-150 range and speeds will be in the 5-15kt range. AFT 22-23Z expect increasing shower and storm development over the area lowlands, and possibly in the vcty of, or over terminals. This could produce short-term, tempo, MVFR conditions. High enough confidence to include PROB30s, for these, with MVFR conditions returning, due to variable strong outflow winds, blowing dust with these outflows, periods of lower CIGS, and reduced vsby in rain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Not many fire weather issues to concern us. Heavy rainfall possible this afternoon and Monday could cause flooding problems for burn scars. Thunderstorms still possible after the remainder of the week over the burn scars but the threat of heavy rain and flooding will decrease. Temperatures just above normal through Wednesday, then warming to well above normal Thursday into the weekend. Min RH: Lowlands east of the Rio Grande Valley 20-30% through Thursday; Rio Grande Valley west 13-18% through Thursday. Gila/Black Range mountains 13-20% through Thursday; Sacramento Mtns 25-40% through Thursday. Vent rates good Monday and very good-excellent Tuesday through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 100 76 101 78 / 20 30 10 10 Sierra Blanca 90 68 92 68 / 30 20 10 10 Las Cruces 97 70 98 72 / 20 40 0 20 Alamogordo 96 71 98 70 / 40 20 20 10 Cloudcroft 72 53 74 52 / 70 10 50 10 Truth or Consequences 97 72 99 73 / 40 30 10 10 Silver City 92 65 94 67 / 40 40 40 30 Deming 101 72 102 73 / 20 50 10 30 Lordsburg 99 70 100 72 / 30 40 20 40 West El Paso Metro 97 76 99 77 / 20 30 10 20 Dell City 95 71 96 71 / 30 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 98 75 100 75 / 30 20 10 10 Loma Linda 90 69 91 70 / 30 20 10 10 Fabens 99 74 100 76 / 20 20 10 10 Santa Teresa 97 73 98 75 / 20 40 10 20 White Sands HQ 97 74 99 76 / 30 30 10 10 Jornada Range 97 71 99 72 / 30 40 10 20 Hatch 100 70 102 72 / 30 40 10 20 Columbus 100 75 100 76 / 10 50 10 30 Orogrande 95 70 96 72 / 30 20 20 10 Mayhill 82 58 83 56 / 80 10 50 10 Mescalero 84 58 85 57 / 70 10 50 10 Timberon 79 57 81 55 / 70 10 40 10 Winston 90 59 92 61 / 50 30 20 20 Hillsboro 97 67 98 70 / 40 40 20 20 Spaceport 97 68 98 70 / 40 30 10 10 Lake Roberts 93 61 95 62 / 50 40 40 30 Hurley 95 65 96 67 / 40 40 30 30 Cliff 100 68 102 69 / 40 40 30 30 Mule Creek 96 66 98 67 / 30 30 30 20 Faywood 94 67 95 69 / 40 40 30 30 Animas 99 71 100 72 / 30 40 20 50 Hachita 98 70 99 71 / 20 50 20 40 Antelope Wells 97 69 99 71 / 40 60 20 50 Cloverdale 92 67 95 70 / 50 60 30 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird