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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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668 FXUS64 KEPZ 110533 AAB AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1133 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 144 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Dry and warm weather this weekend with only a few isolated showers and thunderstorms across western New Mexico. Storm chances will favor the mountain elevations this week as high pressure remains fixed over central Texas. Very few chances for the Rio Grande valley. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal for mid August. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 144 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 High pressure aloft stretched across much of the Rio Grande Valley and central Texas today, suppressing rain chances. This morning`s sounding at EPZ of 0.84" suggests dry weather will stick around through the weekend, with only a few stray showers over the high elevations. Temperatures will continue to run slightly above normal, with lowlands highs in the upper 90s and 100-103 at El Paso. Slight eastward shift of the upper high early next week may allow for another uptick in storm coverage through the Monday-Wednesday timeframe. 850-500 mb flow shows a more favorable fetch out of the Gulf of Mexico, thus an increase in available moisture for storm chances. Despite this, odds are good at El Paso/Las Cruces remain dry this week. Best chances will favor the high terrain and west of the Continental Divide, with very spotty and isolated activity along the Rio Grande valley. Temperatures remain quite warm but not necessarily impactful with little change day-to-day. Low confidence forecast going into late next week and next weekend. Deterministic solutions are very different with the GFS focusing the monsoonal plume over the region (increasing rain chances) and the ECMWF building a Pacific high overhead and souring out moisture (hot and dry). Probabilistic data still prefers at least low-end PoPs in the long term forecast, so left as is for now. Rain chances will rely greatly on the exact position of the upper high and moisture plume on its back end. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW110/250. Winds will remain light and variable through the period with direction mainly from the south or southeast, except at TCS. Late in the period, mainly after 00z, ISO SHRA/TSRA cannot be ruled out, but chances are too low to mention in TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 144 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Low rain chances this weekend with spotty storm coverage across Gila National Forest and dry elsewhere. Transport winds from the south leading to Fair to Good midday ventilation. Min RH 25-40% depending on elevation. Warm weather with marginal rain chances this upcoming week as the monsoon plume of moisture focuses along the AZ/NM state line. Best 7-day rain totals will be west of the Rio Grande. No rapid fire development is expected due to unreceptive fuels, however new lightning starts are possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 76 101 77 102 / 0 0 10 10 Sierra Blanca 67 93 68 94 / 0 10 10 20 Las Cruces 71 99 72 101 / 0 0 10 10 Alamogordo 69 97 70 98 / 0 10 0 10 Cloudcroft 53 73 55 74 / 0 10 10 30 Truth or Consequences 70 97 71 97 / 0 10 10 20 Silver City 65 90 63 90 / 10 20 20 60 Deming 69 98 70 98 / 10 0 10 10 Lordsburg 70 97 69 96 / 10 20 30 50 West El Paso Metro 75 98 76 100 / 0 0 10 10 Dell City 68 98 69 100 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 71 99 71 101 / 0 10 10 10 Loma Linda 68 91 69 93 / 0 10 10 20 Fabens 72 99 73 100 / 0 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 71 97 72 98 / 0 0 10 10 White Sands HQ 73 98 74 100 / 0 10 10 10 Jornada Range 69 97 71 99 / 0 10 10 10 Hatch 69 99 69 101 / 0 10 10 10 Columbus 70 98 72 98 / 0 0 10 10 Orogrande 68 96 69 97 / 0 10 10 10 Mayhill 56 86 58 86 / 0 20 0 30 Mescalero 57 86 58 87 / 10 10 10 40 Timberon 54 84 56 85 / 0 10 0 20 Winston 58 89 59 89 / 10 20 10 50 Hillsboro 65 95 67 95 / 0 10 10 30 Spaceport 66 97 67 98 / 0 10 10 20 Lake Roberts 59 89 58 89 / 10 30 20 70 Hurley 64 93 64 93 / 10 20 10 40 Cliff 65 100 66 100 / 10 30 20 60 Mule Creek 66 93 66 92 / 10 30 20 60 Faywood 66 93 66 94 / 10 10 10 40 Animas 68 97 69 96 / 20 30 40 60 Hachita 68 96 69 96 / 10 10 20 40 Antelope Wells 66 95 67 95 / 10 30 30 60 Cloverdale 64 89 63 88 / 20 50 40 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...40-Breitreiter