668
FXUS64 KEPZ 110533 AAB
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1133 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Dry and warm weather this weekend with only a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms across western New Mexico. Storm chances
will favor the mountain elevations this week as high pressure
remains fixed over central Texas. Very few chances for the Rio
Grande valley. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal for
mid August.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

High pressure aloft stretched across much of the Rio Grande
Valley and central Texas today, suppressing rain chances. This
morning`s sounding at EPZ of 0.84" suggests dry weather will stick
around through the weekend, with only a few stray showers over the
high elevations. Temperatures will continue to run slightly above
normal, with lowlands highs in the upper 90s and 100-103 at El
Paso.

Slight eastward shift of the upper high early next week may allow
for another uptick in storm coverage through the Monday-Wednesday
timeframe. 850-500 mb flow shows a more favorable fetch out of the
Gulf of Mexico, thus an increase in available moisture for storm
chances. Despite this, odds are good at El Paso/Las Cruces remain
dry this week. Best chances will favor the high terrain and west
of the Continental Divide, with very spotty and isolated activity
along the Rio Grande valley. Temperatures remain quite warm but
not necessarily impactful with little change day-to-day.

Low confidence forecast going into late next week and next
weekend. Deterministic solutions are very different with the GFS
focusing the monsoonal plume over the region (increasing rain
chances) and the ECMWF building a Pacific high overhead and
souring out moisture (hot and dry). Probabilistic data still
prefers at least low-end PoPs in the long term forecast, so left
as is for now. Rain chances will rely greatly on the exact
position of the upper high and moisture plume on its back end.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW110/250. Winds will remain light
and variable through the period with direction mainly from the south
or southeast, except at TCS. Late in the period, mainly after 00z,
ISO SHRA/TSRA cannot be ruled out, but chances are too low to
mention in TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Low rain chances this weekend with spotty storm coverage across
Gila National Forest and dry elsewhere. Transport winds from the
south leading to Fair to Good midday ventilation. Min RH 25-40%
depending on elevation. Warm weather with marginal rain chances
this upcoming week as the monsoon plume of moisture focuses along
the AZ/NM state line. Best 7-day rain totals will be west of the
Rio Grande. No rapid fire development is expected due to
unreceptive fuels, however new lightning starts are possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76 101  77 102 /   0   0  10  10
Sierra Blanca            67  93  68  94 /   0  10  10  20
Las Cruces               71  99  72 101 /   0   0  10  10
Alamogordo               69  97  70  98 /   0  10   0  10
Cloudcroft               53  73  55  74 /   0  10  10  30
Truth or Consequences    70  97  71  97 /   0  10  10  20
Silver City              65  90  63  90 /  10  20  20  60
Deming                   69  98  70  98 /  10   0  10  10
Lordsburg                70  97  69  96 /  10  20  30  50
West El Paso Metro       75  98  76 100 /   0   0  10  10
Dell City                68  98  69 100 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             71  99  71 101 /   0  10  10  10
Loma Linda               68  91  69  93 /   0  10  10  20
Fabens                   72  99  73 100 /   0  10  10  10
Santa Teresa             71  97  72  98 /   0   0  10  10
White Sands HQ           73  98  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
Jornada Range            69  97  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
Hatch                    69  99  69 101 /   0  10  10  10
Columbus                 70  98  72  98 /   0   0  10  10
Orogrande                68  96  69  97 /   0  10  10  10
Mayhill                  56  86  58  86 /   0  20   0  30
Mescalero                57  86  58  87 /  10  10  10  40
Timberon                 54  84  56  85 /   0  10   0  20
Winston                  58  89  59  89 /  10  20  10  50
Hillsboro                65  95  67  95 /   0  10  10  30
Spaceport                66  97  67  98 /   0  10  10  20
Lake Roberts             59  89  58  89 /  10  30  20  70
Hurley                   64  93  64  93 /  10  20  10  40
Cliff                    65 100  66 100 /  10  30  20  60
Mule Creek               66  93  66  92 /  10  30  20  60
Faywood                  66  93  66  94 /  10  10  10  40
Animas                   68  97  69  96 /  20  30  40  60
Hachita                  68  96  69  96 /  10  10  20  40
Antelope Wells           66  95  67  95 /  10  30  30  60
Cloverdale               64  89  63  88 /  20  50  40  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...40-Breitreiter