Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
722 FXUS64 KEPZ 291122 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 522 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued daily thunderstorms Sunday and Monday, isolated to scattered in nature. Best chances for rain are in the area mountains. - Better coverage for storms promoting heavy rainfall increases throughout the work week starting Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 953 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 For Sunday, a weak upper high builds over the Four Corners region, keeping rain/storm chances low overall. Area mtns will have the best chance of storm development during the afternoon with scattered activity expected. PWs remain near 1" or just below, so flash flooding and heavy rainfall are unlikely, but slow storm motions and training of storms will help those chances. Areas east of the US-54 corridor are most favored for flash flooding where the deepest moisture is situated, including recent burn scars. Gusty outflows to 40 mph are possible as well, favoring western areas where DCAPE values are forecast to be around 1500 J/kg and large dew point depressions remain. The upper high shifts a bit further north on Monday, allowing for a better fetch of moisture from the east to develop. Surface high pressure spills into the Plains behind a backdoor front that arrives on Monday, bringing a push of moisture to the region on the south and east side of the upper high. Rain/storm chances increase for Monday areawide as PWs begin to climb again with scattered activity. Eastern areas will again be favored to see heavy rainfall on Monday where the deepest moisture is located. The high is nudged to the east and becomes less organized by the middle of the week due to an upper low near the CA coast. A nice moisture tap develops by midweek as the high moves over the Southeast. Rain/storm chances continue to increase through midweek as subtropical moisture is advected northward between the trough to the west and ridge to the east. Tue-Thu look like a pretty active period in terms of thunderstorm coverage. There is a low-medium threat of flash flooding around the middle of the week (probably Wed/Thu) due to PWs reaching near record levels again and impulses rotating around the high. Global ensembles generally show PWs at 1.4-1.6" next week for KELP with the Euro and its AI ensemble all in on record moisture. The GFS ensemble is still more mixed comparatively, but there are more members showing high moisture than this time yesterday. For the last event, the Euro got on board much sooner than the GFS with near-record PWs, so I`m inclined to lean towards the wetter solution and better chances of heavy rainfall. I would expect to see scattered to numerous showers and storms each day from Tue- Thu with the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially on recent burn scars. After Thursday, moisture levels begin to decrease along with storm chances as the upper trough swings through from the west. Much of the moisture is flushed out behind the trough into next weekend. Temperatures will be near normal through Monday with the upper high close by and lower storm chances forecast. Temps drop to seasonably cool levels as we head into the middle of the week due to better rain chances and more cloud cover. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 454 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC to FEW200 through the morning, becoming FEW-SCT with CU development during the afternoon. Isolated to scattered TS/SH will be possible during the late afternoon and evening. Brief MVFR flight restrictions possible if development occurs in the vicinity of terminals. Winds light at 3-7 knots and VRB through the morning, becoming && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 454 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Drier air remains over the region today, bringing a return of near- elevated to elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the forecast area this afternoon. The area of focus for these conditions will be for areas along and west of the Continental Divide where afternoon Min RH values will drop to or slightly below 15 percent today. Areas east of the Continental Divide will see RH values above critical thresholds both afternoons. Winds this today and through the majority of the period will be generally light at 5-15 mph. High temperatures will increase back around the seasonal average for the end of June. Given the recent monsoonal moisture and several days of shower/storm activity across the region, dead fuel moisture values have increased substantially from what they were at a few weeks ago with ERC values dropping well below the 90th percentile. This coupled with increased live fuel moisture within the PJ, oak, foothill shrub, large timber, etc. fire spread components and significant wildland fire potential is low. Afternoon/evening showers and storms will once again be possible today. However, the chance and coverage will be far less than what we`ve seen earlier this week, albeit still possible. The focus for both today will be for areas along and east of the RGV where sufficient moisture still resides, with lesser chances (15-25%) to the west. For areas over the high terrain of the Sacramento Mtns, slow and erratic storm motions will increase the risk for burn scar flash flooding over the Sacramento Complex burn scars. The short term reduction in monsoonal moisture will be short-lived as the monsoonal plume repositions itself over the Borderland Region early this upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 98 73 95 71 / 20 20 30 30 Sierra Blanca 88 64 86 63 / 50 30 60 40 Las Cruces 96 67 94 66 / 20 20 20 40 Alamogordo 95 67 93 64 / 30 10 30 40 Cloudcroft 73 50 70 49 / 50 10 70 40 Truth or Consequences 97 69 94 67 / 20 10 30 40 Silver City 91 63 89 62 / 20 10 50 40 Deming 99 68 97 69 / 20 20 30 40 Lordsburg 99 68 97 68 / 20 10 30 30 West El Paso Metro 96 73 93 72 / 20 20 30 30 Dell City 93 68 91 67 / 30 20 40 40 Fort Hancock 96 71 94 70 / 40 20 60 40 Loma Linda 88 66 85 64 / 30 20 40 30 Fabens 96 70 94 70 / 30 20 40 30 Santa Teresa 96 69 92 69 / 20 20 30 40 White Sands HQ 96 72 94 69 / 20 20 30 40 Jornada Range 96 67 94 65 / 20 20 30 40 Hatch 99 67 97 66 / 20 10 30 40 Columbus 98 70 97 70 / 20 20 20 40 Orogrande 93 67 91 65 / 20 20 30 40 Mayhill 83 54 79 54 / 50 10 70 50 Mescalero 84 55 81 54 / 40 10 60 40 Timberon 80 53 77 51 / 50 10 60 50 Winston 90 57 87 54 / 20 10 50 40 Hillsboro 96 64 94 62 / 20 10 50 40 Spaceport 96 64 94 63 / 20 10 30 40 Lake Roberts 93 59 91 57 / 30 10 60 40 Hurley 94 63 92 62 / 20 10 40 40 Cliff 101 65 98 64 / 20 10 40 30 Mule Creek 97 62 95 62 / 20 10 30 20 Faywood 93 65 91 63 / 20 10 50 40 Animas 99 68 98 68 / 10 10 30 40 Hachita 97 66 95 66 / 20 10 30 40 Antelope Wells 97 67 95 67 / 20 20 30 40 Cloverdale 94 68 92 66 / 10 20 20 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers