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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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600 FXUS64 KEPZ 110921 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 321 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 304 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Mostly dry conditions expected today with isolated showers and thunderstorms favoring the high terrain. Temperatures will be similar to Saturday`s readings. Storm chances will trend up through at least Tuesday, increasing in coverage areawide. Very warm to hot temperatures will persist, with most lowland areas being within a few degrees of 100 throughout the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Exceptionally dry air across all levels is apparent on water vapor imagery this morning across the Borderland. Upper high remains to our east over central TX while the monsoonal moisture plume continues to hug the NM/AZ border. A very slight uptick in storm coverage is expected today with the best probabilities favoring the high terrain. With a relatively persistent thermal profile, temperatures today will be within a few degrees of Saturday`s readings. The stubborn inverted trough over the Baja will start sinking into the Pacific on Monday as a disturbance begins to sweep inland to the PacNW. Meanwhile, the high scoots further eastward. What was being advertised as another very hot day by models in previous runs is looking less intense, with pressure heights relaxing somewhat across the Borderland. While our resident high retreats towards the east, another forms in the Pacific. The interaction between these highs and the incoming PacNW trough will put on a squeeze play to the monsoonal plume, forcing it ever-so-slightly eastward. With the plume finally east of the Continental Divide, Tuesday seems like the best chance for more widespread coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures take another step cooler areawide Tuesday, thanks to the displacement of the high. It`s midweek where confidence begins to falter, as run-to-run consistency on the synoptic pattern continues to be lackluster. The GFS continues to suggest moisture being funneled up between the two highs into our slice of the Desert Southwest. It`s a song the GFS has been singing inconsistently the last few days, making it hard to trust its optimism of a true increase in thunderstorms. Meanwhile, the ECMWF begins nudging a stout high pressure in from the Pacific, the H5 temps of which hover at and above -4C. This scenario would limit thunderstorm potential rather effectively Wednesday into the weekend. This solution would also present a prolonged dose of hotter temps, especially in the lowlands. Given the GFS`s inability to commit, did trend PoPs down slightly through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW110/250. Winds will remain light and variable through the period with direction mainly from the south or southeast, except at TCS. Late in the period, mainly after 00z, ISO SHRA/TSRA cannot be ruled out, but chances are too low to mention in TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 304 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected during the forecast period. Relative humidity values will sit at critical thresholds in the early part of the week, moving into the high teens to twenty percent plus range by midweek. High pressure and relaxed flow aloft will allow for surface winds to remain light and generally influenced by terrain for their direction. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will return today favoring the high terrain, trending up in coverage through at least Tuesday. Forecast confidence is low regarding storm chances from midweek forward. A mixed bag ventilation rates can be expected through midweek, trending good to excellent towards the end of next week for most areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 101 75 101 77 / 0 10 10 30 Sierra Blanca 94 68 95 68 / 10 0 10 20 Las Cruces 99 72 100 72 / 0 10 10 30 Alamogordo 97 72 97 70 / 10 0 10 20 Cloudcroft 74 57 74 54 / 20 10 30 20 Truth or Consequences 97 71 97 71 / 10 10 10 30 Silver City 90 64 89 63 / 20 20 60 30 Deming 99 70 98 70 / 0 10 10 40 Lordsburg 96 69 95 69 / 20 20 50 40 West El Paso Metro 98 75 99 75 / 0 10 10 30 Dell City 99 70 100 70 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Hancock 100 71 101 72 / 10 10 10 20 Loma Linda 92 69 93 70 / 10 10 10 30 Fabens 99 73 100 73 / 10 10 10 20 Santa Teresa 98 72 98 72 / 0 10 10 40 White Sands HQ 98 73 99 74 / 10 10 10 30 Jornada Range 98 71 99 70 / 0 0 10 30 Hatch 99 70 100 70 / 10 10 10 30 Columbus 98 73 98 72 / 0 10 10 30 Orogrande 97 70 97 70 / 10 10 10 30 Mayhill 84 60 85 57 / 20 0 30 20 Mescalero 84 60 85 57 / 20 10 30 30 Timberon 83 59 85 56 / 10 0 30 20 Winston 89 60 89 59 / 10 10 40 30 Hillsboro 95 68 94 66 / 10 10 30 40 Spaceport 97 68 98 67 / 10 10 10 30 Lake Roberts 88 59 87 57 / 30 20 60 40 Hurley 93 65 92 64 / 20 10 40 30 Cliff 98 66 98 64 / 20 20 60 30 Mule Creek 92 66 91 65 / 30 30 60 30 Faywood 93 67 93 65 / 10 10 30 40 Animas 96 69 95 68 / 30 30 60 50 Hachita 96 69 95 68 / 10 20 30 40 Antelope Wells 94 67 94 66 / 20 30 50 50 Cloverdale 88 63 87 63 / 40 30 70 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...40-Breitreiter