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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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955 FXUS64 KEPZ 111732 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1132 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 304 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Mostly dry conditions expected today with isolated showers and thunderstorms favoring the high terrain. Temperatures will be similar to Saturday`s readings. Storm chances will trend up through at least Tuesday, increasing in coverage areawide. Very warm to hot temperatures will persist, with most lowland areas being within a few degrees of 100 throughout the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Exceptionally dry air across all levels is apparent on water vapor imagery this morning across the Borderland. Upper high remains to our east over central TX while the monsoonal moisture plume continues to hug the NM/AZ border. A very slight uptick in storm coverage is expected today with the best probabilities favoring the high terrain. With a relatively persistent thermal profile, temperatures today will be within a few degrees of Saturday`s readings. The stubborn inverted trough over the Baja will start sinking into the Pacific on Monday as a disturbance begins to sweep inland to the PacNW. Meanwhile, the high scoots further eastward. What was being advertised as another very hot day by models in previous runs is looking less intense, with pressure heights relaxing somewhat across the Borderland. While our resident high retreats towards the east, another forms in the Pacific. The interaction between these highs and the incoming PacNW trough will put on a squeeze play to the monsoonal plume, forcing it ever-so-slightly eastward. With the plume finally east of the Continental Divide, Tuesday seems like the best chance for more widespread coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures take another step cooler areawide Tuesday, thanks to the displacement of the high. It`s midweek where confidence begins to falter, as run-to-run consistency on the synoptic pattern continues to be lackluster. The GFS continues to suggest moisture being funneled up between the two highs into our slice of the Desert Southwest. It`s a song the GFS has been singing inconsistently the last few days, making it hard to trust its optimism of a true increase in thunderstorms. Meanwhile, the ECMWF begins nudging a stout high pressure in from the Pacific, the H5 temps of which hover at and above -4C. This scenario would limit thunderstorm potential rather effectively Wednesday into the weekend. This solution would also present a prolonged dose of hotter temps, especially in the lowlands. Given the GFS`s inability to commit, did trend PoPs down slightly through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 through much of the period. Isolated to widely scattered 3-5SM -TSRA BKN060-080 mainly over far west and Sacs between 19Z-03Z. Winds AOB 12KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 304 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected during the forecast period. Relative humidity values will sit at critical thresholds in the early part of the week, moving into the high teens to twenty percent plus range by midweek. High pressure and relaxed flow aloft will allow for surface winds to remain light and generally influenced by terrain for their direction. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will return today favoring the high terrain, trending up in coverage through at least Tuesday. Forecast confidence is low regarding storm chances from midweek forward. A mixed bag ventilation rates can be expected through midweek, trending good to excellent towards the end of next week for most areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 101 76 102 76 / 0 10 10 20 Sierra Blanca 94 71 97 71 / 10 0 10 20 Las Cruces 99 71 100 71 / 0 10 10 20 Alamogordo 97 69 98 69 / 10 10 20 20 Cloudcroft 74 52 74 52 / 20 20 30 30 Truth or Consequences 97 71 97 70 / 10 10 10 30 Silver City 90 63 90 64 / 20 20 60 30 Deming 99 69 100 69 / 0 10 10 30 Lordsburg 96 69 95 70 / 20 30 50 40 West El Paso Metro 98 76 100 76 / 0 10 10 20 Dell City 99 70 101 70 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Hancock 100 71 101 71 / 10 10 10 20 Loma Linda 92 69 93 69 / 10 10 10 20 Fabens 99 74 102 74 / 10 10 10 20 Santa Teresa 98 73 99 72 / 0 10 10 20 White Sands HQ 98 71 99 71 / 10 10 10 20 Jornada Range 98 66 99 66 / 0 0 10 20 Hatch 99 70 100 70 / 10 10 10 30 Columbus 98 73 100 73 / 0 10 10 30 Orogrande 97 72 100 72 / 10 10 20 20 Mayhill 84 58 85 58 / 20 20 30 20 Mescalero 84 55 85 55 / 20 10 30 30 Timberon 83 53 85 53 / 10 10 30 20 Winston 89 60 89 60 / 10 10 40 30 Hillsboro 95 66 95 66 / 10 10 30 40 Spaceport 97 65 99 65 / 10 10 10 30 Lake Roberts 88 55 87 54 / 30 20 60 40 Hurley 93 65 93 66 / 20 20 40 30 Cliff 98 63 97 63 / 20 20 60 40 Mule Creek 92 60 91 60 / 30 30 60 40 Faywood 93 67 94 67 / 10 10 30 40 Animas 96 69 95 70 / 30 30 60 50 Hachita 96 71 95 72 / 10 20 30 40 Antelope Wells 94 67 94 68 / 20 30 50 50 Cloverdale 88 63 89 64 / 40 30 60 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz