955
FXUS64 KEPZ 111732
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1132 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Mostly dry conditions expected today with isolated showers and
thunderstorms favoring the high terrain. Temperatures will be
similar to Saturday`s readings. Storm chances will trend up
through at least Tuesday, increasing in coverage areawide. Very
warm to hot temperatures will persist, with most lowland areas
being within a few degrees of 100 throughout the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Exceptionally dry air across all levels is apparent on water
vapor imagery this morning across the Borderland. Upper high
remains to our east over central TX while the monsoonal moisture
plume continues to hug the NM/AZ border. A very slight uptick in
storm coverage is expected today with the best probabilities
favoring the high terrain. With a relatively persistent thermal
profile, temperatures today will be within a few degrees of
Saturday`s readings.

The stubborn inverted trough over the Baja will start sinking into
the Pacific on Monday as a disturbance begins to sweep inland to the
PacNW. Meanwhile, the high scoots further eastward. What was being
advertised as another very hot day by models in previous runs is
looking less intense, with pressure heights relaxing somewhat
across the Borderland. While our resident high retreats towards
the east, another forms in the Pacific. The interaction between
these highs and the incoming PacNW trough will put on a squeeze
play to the monsoonal plume, forcing it ever-so-slightly eastward.
With the plume finally east of the Continental Divide, Tuesday
seems like the best chance for more widespread coverage of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures take another
step cooler areawide Tuesday, thanks to the displacement of the
high.

It`s midweek where confidence begins to falter, as run-to-run
consistency on the synoptic pattern continues to be lackluster.
The GFS continues to suggest moisture being funneled up between
the two highs into our slice of the Desert Southwest. It`s a song
the GFS has been singing inconsistently the last few days, making
it hard to trust its optimism of a true increase in thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF begins nudging a stout high pressure in from
the Pacific, the H5 temps of which hover at and above -4C. This
scenario would limit thunderstorm potential rather effectively
Wednesday into the weekend. This solution would also present a
prolonged dose of hotter temps, especially in the lowlands. Given
the GFS`s inability to commit, did trend PoPs down slightly
through the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 through much of the period. Isolated to widely
scattered 3-5SM -TSRA BKN060-080 mainly over far west and
Sacs between 19Z-03Z. Winds AOB 12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected during the
forecast period. Relative humidity values will sit at critical
thresholds in the early part of the week, moving into the high teens
to twenty percent plus range by midweek. High pressure and relaxed
flow aloft will allow for surface winds to remain light and
generally influenced by terrain for their direction. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will return today favoring the high terrain,
trending up in coverage through at least Tuesday. Forecast
confidence is low regarding storm chances from midweek forward. A
mixed bag ventilation rates can be expected through midweek,
trending good to excellent towards the end of next week for most
areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 101  76 102  76 /   0  10  10  20
Sierra Blanca            94  71  97  71 /  10   0  10  20
Las Cruces               99  71 100  71 /   0  10  10  20
Alamogordo               97  69  98  69 /  10  10  20  20
Cloudcroft               74  52  74  52 /  20  20  30  30
Truth or Consequences    97  71  97  70 /  10  10  10  30
Silver City              90  63  90  64 /  20  20  60  30
Deming                   99  69 100  69 /   0  10  10  30
Lordsburg                96  69  95  70 /  20  30  50  40
West El Paso Metro       98  76 100  76 /   0  10  10  20
Dell City                99  70 101  70 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Hancock            100  71 101  71 /  10  10  10  20
Loma Linda               92  69  93  69 /  10  10  10  20
Fabens                   99  74 102  74 /  10  10  10  20
Santa Teresa             98  73  99  72 /   0  10  10  20
White Sands HQ           98  71  99  71 /  10  10  10  20
Jornada Range            98  66  99  66 /   0   0  10  20
Hatch                    99  70 100  70 /  10  10  10  30
Columbus                 98  73 100  73 /   0  10  10  30
Orogrande                97  72 100  72 /  10  10  20  20
Mayhill                  84  58  85  58 /  20  20  30  20
Mescalero                84  55  85  55 /  20  10  30  30
Timberon                 83  53  85  53 /  10  10  30  20
Winston                  89  60  89  60 /  10  10  40  30
Hillsboro                95  66  95  66 /  10  10  30  40
Spaceport                97  65  99  65 /  10  10  10  30
Lake Roberts             88  55  87  54 /  30  20  60  40
Hurley                   93  65  93  66 /  20  20  40  30
Cliff                    98  63  97  63 /  20  20  60  40
Mule Creek               92  60  91  60 /  30  30  60  40
Faywood                  93  67  94  67 /  10  10  30  40
Animas                   96  69  95  70 /  30  30  60  50
Hachita                  96  71  95  72 /  10  20  30  40
Antelope Wells           94  67  94  68 /  20  30  50  50
Cloverdale               88  63  89  64 /  40  30  60  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz