932
FXUS64 KEPZ 120013
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
613 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Above normal temperatures will continue through the upcoming week
with highs over the lowlands in the upper 90s to around 103.
Precipitation chances will spread east across the Borderland by
midweek, but these chances will be short lived with dry air
returning by next weekend as an upper high builds over New Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Models came into better agreement with the 12Z runs than
previously. Ensemble means also support the overall pattern
evolution for the next week. Currently an elongated high extends
from the TX Gulf Coast WNW into central AZ. Over the next few
days, the center to this high moves more along the Gulf Coast of
LA to FL as an upper trough crosses the Rockies. This occurs
Tue thru Thu and will likely be the best days for precip across
the area, although still not great. There will be modest moisture
around with dew points in the 50s and PW`s in the 1-1.25" range.
These days it generally looks like a typical summer pattern with
storms developing on the mountains and outflows helping trigger
lowland storms. There is a back edge to a boundary that moves
through the eastern areas Thu, but the high is also building in
from the west. NBM Pops for Tue/Wed looked high out west and in
the mountains and lowered the 70 Pops it had down 10-20 percent
for now with no noticeable triggers besides orographics as lift
from the main trough will be over northern NM into CO. There looks
like some upper support will come with that earlier mentioned
boundary on Thu and did raise Pops in the east. High temperatures
each day look to be fairly persistent with the lowlands in the
97-103 range each day. Lows generally in the 70s with 50s and 60s
in the mountains.

Going into Fri through Sun, the upper high gets reestablished with
much more amplitude than it currently has. Previous runs of the EC
had the high building over the TX/LA area but the most recent run,
GFS and ensemble means place a strong high right over NM and build
north across the Rockies. This isn`t good for bringing in moisture
to areas at least east of the Continental Divide or temperatures.
Could go back to the scenario where the Gila and areas near the AZ
border get daily storms, but little out east. Temperatures could
possibly start approaching 105 for the lower RGV, but didn`t quite
go that hot right now, but did raise NBM temps a couple degrees
given good agreement that H85 temps will be warming into the
33-35C range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Another day of limited thunderstorm activity today. Winds this
evening are generally light and variable and look to continue
light and variable through the overnight hours. The only catch to
that is that there are still a few showers ongoing which could
produce some outflow winds. If any develop I will update TAF`s
accordingly, but at this time, I`m not expecting it at all. For
Monday our winds will be light in the morning and then generally
from the south in the afternoon. We may see a few low end wind
gusts, but generally winds won`t be a problem. Ceilings will be
unlimited tonight and through the morning hours. We could see some
mid or high ceilings Monday afternoon, depending on the storm
coverage, but right now Monday is looking similar to today`s storm
coverage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Moisture will slowly be increasing over the area through midweek
as we will be on the far south end of an upper trough. Storm
chances through Monday are fairly low except the mountains and far
west, but push further east by Wed/Thu. This will be short lived
as a strong high will become established right over NM by the end
of the week bringing very hot and dry conditions back. RH`s will
be falling into the mid teens to mid 20s lowlands through Tue then
into the 20s for a couple days before dropping back into the
teens. Mountain areas should continue to be at least mid 20s.
Vent rates mainly good to very good for the coming days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76 102  76 101 /  10  10  20  10
Sierra Blanca            71  97  71  93 /   0  10  20  20
Las Cruces               71 100  71  99 /  10  10  20  20
Alamogordo               69  98  69  98 /  10  20  20  10
Cloudcroft               52  74  52  73 /  20  30  30  50
Truth or Consequences    71  97  70  96 /  10  10  30  30
Silver City              63  90  64  88 /  20  60  30  60
Deming                   69 100  69  97 /  10  10  30  20
Lordsburg                69  95  70  93 /  30  50  40  50
West El Paso Metro       76 100  76  98 /  10  10  20  20
Dell City                70 101  70  99 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Hancock             71 101  71 100 /  10  10  20  20
Loma Linda               69  93  69  92 /  10  10  20  20
Fabens                   74 102  74 100 /  10  10  20  10
Santa Teresa             73  99  72  97 /  10  10  20  20
White Sands HQ           71  99  71  98 /  10  10  20  30
Jornada Range            66  99  66  98 /   0  10  20  20
Hatch                    70 100  70 100 /  10  10  30  30
Columbus                 73 100  73  97 /  10  10  30  30
Orogrande                72 100  72  96 /  10  20  20  20
Mayhill                  58  85  58  85 /  20  30  20  40
Mescalero                55  85  55  85 /  10  30  30  50
Timberon                 53  85  53  84 /  10  30  20  40
Winston                  60  89  60  87 /  10  40  30  60
Hillsboro                66  95  66  94 /  10  30  40  50
Spaceport                65  99  65  97 /  10  10  30  30
Lake Roberts             55  87  54  88 /  20  60  40  60
Hurley                   65  93  66  91 /  20  40  30  50
Cliff                    63  97  63  96 /  20  60  40  60
Mule Creek               60  91  60  91 /  30  60  40  70
Faywood                  67  94  67  92 /  10  30  40  50
Animas                   69  95  70  93 /  30  60  50  50
Hachita                  71  95  72  94 /  20  30  40  50
Antelope Wells           67  94  68  93 /  30  50  50  50
Cloverdale               63  89  64  87 /  30  60  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice