Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
047 FXUS64 KEPZ 290447 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1047 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued daily thunderstorms Sunday and Monday, isolated to scattered in nature. Best chances for rain are in the area mountains. - Better coverage for storms promoting heavy rainfall increases throughout the work week starting Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 953 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 For Sunday, a weak upper high builds over the Four Corners region, keeping rain/storm chances low overall. Area mtns will have the best chance of storm development during the afternoon with scattered activity expected. PWs remain near 1" or just below, so flash flooding and heavy rainfall are unlikely, but slow storm motions and training of storms will help those chances. Areas east of the US-54 corridor are most favored for flash flooding where the deepest moisture is situated, including recent burn scars. Gusty outflows to 40 mph are possible as well, favoring western areas where DCAPE values are forecast to be around 1500 J/kg and large dew point depressions remain. The upper high shifts a bit further north on Monday, allowing for a better fetch of moisture from the east to develop. Surface high pressure spills into the Plains behind a backdoor front that arrives on Monday, bringing a push of moisture to the region on the south and east side of the upper high. Rain/storm chances increase for Monday areawide as PWs begin to climb again with scattered activity. Eastern areas will again be favored to see heavy rainfall on Monday where the deepest moisture is located. The high is nudged to the east and becomes less organized by the middle of the week due to an upper low near the CA coast. A nice moisture tap develops by midweek as the high moves over the Southeast. Rain/storm chances continue to increase through midweek as subtropical moisture is advected northward between the trough to the west and ridge to the east. Tue-Thu look like a pretty active period in terms of thunderstorm coverage. There is a low-medium threat of flash flooding around the middle of the week (probably Wed/Thu) due to PWs reaching near record levels again and impulses rotating around the high. Global ensembles generally show PWs at 1.4-1.6" next week for KELP with the Euro and its AI ensemble all in on record moisture. The GFS ensemble is still more mixed comparatively, but there are more members showing high moisture than this time yesterday. For the last event, the Euro got on board much sooner than the GFS with near-record PWs, so I`m inclined to lean towards the wetter solution and better chances of heavy rainfall. I would expect to see scattered to numerous showers and storms each day from Tue- Thu with the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially on recent burn scars. After Thursday, moisture levels begin to decrease along with storm chances as the upper trough swings through from the west. Much of the moisture is flushed out behind the trough into next weekend. Temperatures will be near normal through Monday with the upper high close by and lower storm chances forecast. Temps drop to seasonably cool levels as we head into the middle of the week due to better rain chances and more cloud cover. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 953 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Rain chances will be near zero through the morning as the remaining mid clouds dissipate. Isolated to scattered storms develop Sunday afternoon with high enough confidence to include PROB30s outside of KTCS for the evening. The southern three terminals have a low chance of direct impacts from TS with high chances of seeing gusty outflows up to 30kts into the evening. The outflows could lower VIS to 3SM or less due to BLDU, but we`ll have to wait to see where the outflows set up before including any BLDU mention. Storms are less likely to impact KTCS Sunday. Otherwise, prevailing winds will be AOB 10kts from SE. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1106 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Elevated fire danger exists in portions of the Gila region tomorrow due to min RH values of 8-15% but our saving grace will be light wind speeds 5-10 mph (20 foot). Winds stay light over the week ahead with light afternoon breezes and calm drainage winds overnight. Critical RHs exist generally west of the Rio Grande tomorrow afternoon but a good moisture surge will occur late Sunday into Monday where moisture will push east to west bringing max RHs of 50- 80% along and east of the Rio Grande. Near critical to critical min RHs Monday afternoon in the Gila region but elsewhere will see min RHs generally 18% out west and 30-40% out east. Storm chances starting Tuesday will continue to increase throughout the week. Heavy rain, flooding (burn scar and regular), and plentiful lightning will be the main hazards. Ventilation rates will be fair to very good tomorrow through Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 94 73 98 73 / 20 10 20 20 Sierra Blanca 86 64 88 64 / 50 30 50 30 Las Cruces 92 67 96 67 / 20 20 20 20 Alamogordo 92 67 95 67 / 30 10 30 10 Cloudcroft 69 51 73 50 / 50 20 50 10 Truth or Consequences 93 69 97 69 / 20 10 20 10 Silver City 88 62 91 63 / 30 10 20 10 Deming 95 68 99 68 / 20 10 20 20 Lordsburg 95 67 99 68 / 20 10 20 10 West El Paso Metro 93 73 96 73 / 20 10 20 20 Dell City 90 67 93 68 / 40 20 30 20 Fort Hancock 92 70 96 71 / 40 20 40 20 Loma Linda 85 66 88 66 / 30 20 30 20 Fabens 92 70 96 70 / 30 10 30 20 Santa Teresa 91 70 96 69 / 20 10 20 20 White Sands HQ 92 72 96 72 / 30 20 20 20 Jornada Range 93 67 96 67 / 30 20 20 20 Hatch 95 67 99 67 / 20 20 20 10 Columbus 95 71 98 70 / 10 10 20 20 Orogrande 90 67 93 67 / 30 20 20 20 Mayhill 80 56 83 54 / 60 20 50 10 Mescalero 80 55 84 55 / 50 20 40 10 Timberon 76 53 80 53 / 50 20 50 10 Winston 86 56 90 57 / 20 10 20 10 Hillsboro 92 64 96 64 / 30 10 20 10 Spaceport 92 65 96 64 / 30 20 20 10 Lake Roberts 90 58 93 59 / 30 10 30 10 Hurley 90 62 94 63 / 30 10 20 10 Cliff 97 64 101 65 / 20 10 20 10 Mule Creek 94 62 97 62 / 30 10 20 10 Faywood 89 64 93 65 / 30 10 20 10 Animas 96 68 99 68 / 10 10 10 10 Hachita 93 66 97 66 / 20 10 20 10 Antelope Wells 94 67 97 67 / 10 10 20 20 Cloverdale 90 66 94 68 / 10 10 10 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson