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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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064 FXUS64 KEPZ 120541 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1141 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Above normal temperatures will continue through the upcoming week with highs over the lowlands in the upper 90s to around 103. Precipitation chances will spread east across the Borderland by midweek, but these chances will be short lived with dry air returning by next weekend as an upper high builds over New Mexico. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Models came into better agreement with the 12Z runs than previously. Ensemble means also support the overall pattern evolution for the next week. Currently an elongated high extends from the TX Gulf Coast WNW into central AZ. Over the next few days, the center to this high moves more along the Gulf Coast of LA to FL as an upper trough crosses the Rockies. This occurs Tue thru Thu and will likely be the best days for precip across the area, although still not great. There will be modest moisture around with dew points in the 50s and PW`s in the 1-1.25" range. These days it generally looks like a typical summer pattern with storms developing on the mountains and outflows helping trigger lowland storms. There is a back edge to a boundary that moves through the eastern areas Thu, but the high is also building in from the west. NBM Pops for Tue/Wed looked high out west and in the mountains and lowered the 70 Pops it had down 10-20 percent for now with no noticeable triggers besides orographics as lift from the main trough will be over northern NM into CO. There looks like some upper support will come with that earlier mentioned boundary on Thu and did raise Pops in the east. High temperatures each day look to be fairly persistent with the lowlands in the 97-103 range each day. Lows generally in the 70s with 50s and 60s in the mountains. Going into Fri through Sun, the upper high gets reestablished with much more amplitude than it currently has. Previous runs of the EC had the high building over the TX/LA area but the most recent run, GFS and ensemble means place a strong high right over NM and build north across the Rockies. This isn`t good for bringing in moisture to areas at least east of the Continental Divide or temperatures. Could go back to the scenario where the Gila and areas near the AZ border get daily storms, but little out east. Temperatures could possibly start approaching 105 for the lower RGV, but didn`t quite go that hot right now, but did raise NBM temps a couple degrees given good agreement that H85 temps will be warming into the 33-35C range. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Despite limited convection this evening, a few outflow boundaries have moved across parts of the region to give us some low-end gusty winds. These winds will continue for the next couple of hours before dropping back off to more light and variable winds. For the rest of the night into Monday morning we will have light winds, but by the afternoon we will see some more southerly winds develop. We could also see some low-end gusty winds Monday afternoon. Those gusty winds will drop off around sunset. Our ceilings will be unlimited tonight, but we will see increasing mid and high clouds Monday afternoon and we could see some mid and high ceilings of BKN120-250 Monday evening depending on the coverage of thunderstorms. Right now thunderstorm chances don`t look very good on Monday, but like tonight a few storms may pop up. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Moisture will slowly be increasing over the area through midweek as we will be on the far south end of an upper trough. Storm chances through Monday are fairly low except the mountains and far west, but push further east by Wed/Thu. This will be short lived as a strong high will become established right over NM by the end of the week bringing very hot and dry conditions back. RH`s will be falling into the mid teens to mid 20s lowlands through Tue then into the 20s for a couple days before dropping back into the teens. Mountain areas should continue to be at least mid 20s. Vent rates mainly good to very good for the coming days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 76 102 76 101 / 10 10 20 10 Sierra Blanca 71 97 71 93 / 0 10 20 20 Las Cruces 71 100 71 99 / 10 10 20 20 Alamogordo 69 98 69 98 / 10 20 20 10 Cloudcroft 52 74 52 73 / 20 30 30 50 Truth or Consequences 71 97 70 96 / 10 10 30 30 Silver City 63 90 64 88 / 20 60 30 60 Deming 69 100 69 97 / 10 10 30 20 Lordsburg 69 95 70 93 / 30 50 40 50 West El Paso Metro 76 100 76 98 / 10 10 20 20 Dell City 70 101 70 99 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 71 101 71 100 / 10 10 20 20 Loma Linda 69 93 69 92 / 10 10 20 20 Fabens 74 102 74 100 / 10 10 20 10 Santa Teresa 73 99 72 97 / 10 10 20 20 White Sands HQ 71 99 71 98 / 10 10 20 30 Jornada Range 66 99 66 98 / 0 10 20 20 Hatch 70 100 70 100 / 10 10 30 30 Columbus 73 100 73 97 / 10 10 30 30 Orogrande 72 100 72 96 / 10 20 20 20 Mayhill 58 85 58 85 / 20 30 20 40 Mescalero 55 85 55 85 / 10 30 30 50 Timberon 53 85 53 84 / 10 30 20 40 Winston 60 89 60 87 / 10 40 30 60 Hillsboro 66 95 66 94 / 10 30 40 50 Spaceport 65 99 65 97 / 10 10 30 30 Lake Roberts 55 87 54 88 / 20 60 40 60 Hurley 65 93 66 91 / 20 40 30 50 Cliff 63 97 63 96 / 20 60 40 60 Mule Creek 60 91 60 91 / 30 60 40 70 Faywood 67 94 67 92 / 10 30 40 50 Animas 69 95 70 93 / 30 60 50 50 Hachita 71 95 72 94 / 20 30 40 50 Antelope Wells 67 94 68 93 / 30 50 50 50 Cloverdale 63 89 64 87 / 30 60 50 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird