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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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591 FXUS64 KEPZ 121141 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 541 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 219 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 With high pressure nearby, the Borderland will continue hot, with above normal temperatures. Most days this week will see afternoon highs around 100 degrees, and above, across the lowlands. Monsoon moisture is limited and focused out west today, with only isolated lowlands storms expected. Area mountains will see most of the storms today. The moisture shifts back over our region for Tuesday and Wednesday, as the upper high shifts east. We will see better rain and storm chances these days. After mid-week, the upper high builds back our region with warmer temperatures, and fewer storms to end the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 The western extent of our current, E-W elongated high pressure ridge sits over NM. This feature, and the clockwise flow, around it has shoved the deeper moisture over AZ. This means our atmospheric moisture content has been below monsoon season normals, resulting in a stark reduction in convective activity over the weekend. Today we start to transition back to a more moist atmosphere, as the upper high begins to shift east. Models do show PWATs up from around 0.80" back to around 1.00", and dewpoints will be up about 5 degrees. The global models indicate a precip pattern with most of the rain/storms over AZ, bleeding into the NM Continental Divide area, with some storms over most of our mountain areas, and few over our lowlands. However the CAM models do show a more uniform and widespread pattern of airmass type storms across most of our lowlands. With the upper high weakening a bit, we do expect the slight uptick in moisture, and the slight loss of upper-level stabilization, to result in an increase in storms across the region today. Models suggest the majority of the storms will be focused west of the Rio Grande Valley, but evening storm outflow mean any location could see a late-day storms. We are also looking at another afternoon where temperatures will be well above normal, with some lowland locations back in the triple- digits. For Tuesday and Wednesday, and likely Thursday, we see the upper ridge shifting well to our east as a minor Pacific trough pushes east across the Western U.S., chased by a building ridge off the west coast. Our area will be in the weakness of a slit ridge, with a high center to our west and anther to our east. This will allow that deeper moisture over AZ to migrate back east over our area. In fact our region should become the focus for moisture over the SW U.S. These two days should provide our best chances for more scattered and wide- spread showers and thunderstorms. Despite an increase in moisture, the values are not excessive with PWATs about 1.15" to 1.25". Thus excessive rain and flood potential won`t be too high. With more clouds and showers, temperatures should be down a slight amount. Friday onward, we are back to seeing upper ridging building back over the area, as the split ridge rejoins the two centers directly over S New Mexico. This will effectively cut off moisture, with the flow shifting the moisture in place to our south and west. We expect to see warmer temperatures and less storms to finish out the week. Friday will be the transition day back to fewer storms, with the weekend looking mostly dry, and hot at this time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 VFR conditions will be the prevailing flight category for all terminals through the period. Skies will be mostly SKC through 18Z, with developing FEW/SCT CU at 100-120 ft aft 18Z. AFT 18Z ISO/SCT TSRA ovr area MTNS, with iso MVFR due to reduced vsby in rain shafts. AFT 21Z possible ISO TSRA ovr lowlands and in VCTY of terminals, but probs too low to include in TAFs. Winds quite variable across the terminal btwn 05-12kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Low-end fire weather concerns through the week. Temperatures will continue well above average, with afternoon max temps 5-8 degrees above normal. Relative humidity will show fair nightly recoveries, with generally dry afternoons. Some areas will see minRH drop into the teens, but nothing excessively dry. With some semblance of high pressure over the region, winds will be generally weak to moderate, with the ever-present chances for gusty and erratic outflow winds due to storms. Storm chances will be on the increase; especially after today, as the upper ridge shifts back east, and allows the deeper moisture over AZ to move back over. Upslope flow and surface heating will allow for scattered mountain storms and isolated lowland storms today. We expect more storms and wider coverage of rain and storms Tuesday through Thursday, as the channel of deeper moisture settles back over the area. Late week, likely Friday, we see high pressure aloft, building back over the area. Models suggest we cut off moisture from moving in, and move out any moisture in place to our south. This will mean warmer and drier conditions, with fewer storms for the upcoming weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 103 77 101 77 / 10 30 20 40 Sierra Blanca 95 69 94 68 / 10 20 30 40 Las Cruces 101 71 99 71 / 10 30 30 40 Alamogordo 98 70 98 68 / 10 20 20 30 Cloudcroft 75 54 73 53 / 40 20 50 30 Truth or Consequences 98 71 95 70 / 10 20 40 30 Silver City 90 62 87 62 / 50 40 80 30 Deming 99 70 96 70 / 10 30 30 40 Lordsburg 96 67 93 68 / 50 50 70 40 West El Paso Metro 101 74 98 74 / 10 30 20 40 Dell City 101 71 99 70 / 10 10 10 20 Fort Hancock 101 72 100 72 / 10 20 20 40 Loma Linda 94 68 92 68 / 10 20 30 40 Fabens 101 72 98 73 / 10 30 20 40 Santa Teresa 99 71 97 72 / 10 40 30 50 White Sands HQ 100 73 98 73 / 10 30 30 40 Jornada Range 100 70 97 70 / 10 30 30 40 Hatch 102 70 99 70 / 10 30 40 40 Columbus 99 72 96 72 / 10 30 40 40 Orogrande 98 70 96 70 / 10 20 20 40 Mayhill 87 57 86 56 / 30 10 50 30 Mescalero 87 58 85 56 / 40 20 50 40 Timberon 85 55 84 55 / 30 20 40 30 Winston 90 58 86 56 / 40 30 70 30 Hillsboro 96 67 93 65 / 20 30 60 40 Spaceport 99 67 96 67 / 10 30 40 30 Lake Roberts 89 57 87 57 / 60 40 90 30 Hurley 93 63 91 63 / 40 30 70 30 Cliff 100 64 96 64 / 50 30 70 30 Mule Creek 92 64 89 64 / 50 40 70 30 Faywood 94 66 91 65 / 30 30 60 40 Animas 96 67 93 67 / 60 60 70 50 Hachita 96 67 93 67 / 30 40 60 40 Antelope Wells 95 65 91 65 / 50 50 70 40 Cloverdale 89 62 86 63 / 70 60 80 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird