948
FXUS64 KEPZ 122017
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
217 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 111 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Warm conditions with limited thunderstorm activity will continue
across the region this week. Day time temperatures are expected
remain several degrees above normal with upper 90s to lower 100`s
expected across the lowlands. Thunderstorm activity will increase
this afternoon through Wednesday with scattered storms over the
mountains and areas west of the Continental Divide, with isolated
showers and thunderstorms possible over the rest of the lowland
areas. Conditions become drier later in the week and next weekend
as high pressure and reduced moisture limits thunderstorm develop
to isolated areas of the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

The weather pattern will continue to be warm with above normal
temperatures, but will also become a bit Late week, likely
Friday, we see high pressure aloft, building back over the area.
Models suggest we cut off moisture from moving in, and move out
any moisture in place to our south. This will mean warmer and
drier conditions, with fewer storms for the upcoming weekend.more
active over the next three days as a combination of weakening high
pressure aloft, a high upper level disturbance moving into the
area from the southeast, and a modest increase in moisture will
lead to more widespread shower and thunderstorm develop as
compared to the last several days of mostly dry weather.

So far this afternoon, considerable cumulus cloud development is
underway, especially along area mountains. This is driven in part
by increased moisture and a weak upper tropospheric level
disturbance providing some additional lift along with day time
heating of the surface layer boundary. The upper level feature
does not show up strongly in the models but is visible in the
latest water vapor imagery moving to the northwest toward our area
from the Big Bend region of Texas. Terrain driven lift and
upslope flow is contributing to the cloud and storm development
this afternoon which will lead to scattered showers and storms for
mountain locations as well as nearby lowland areas. The lowland
deserts away from the mountains will see a more isolated
distribution of storms with spotty accumulations. Rain amounts are
not expected to be that high, however it will not take much
rainfall to impact sensitive burn scar areas in the Sacramento
Mountains.

Tuesday will have our best chances for rain as we see further
weakening of the high aloft as the center of the high shifts east
toward eastern Texas in response to a Pacific trough moving inland
on the west coast. This pattern shift will drag the monsoonal
moisture plume eastward from Arizona to New Mexico, increasing
our chances for widespread shower and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Added lift and forcing from the Pacific
trough will aid in storm development especially over the mountains
and areas to the north in northern New Mexico and Colorado.
Wednesday may continue the widespread thunderstorm activity as the
high aloft remains split into east and west halves with the
weakest portion located over New Mexico. The moisture plume will
continue to straddle the region at least for a portion of
Wednesday, helping to fuel additional thunderstorm development
over the region.

On Thursday the high aloft will begin rebuild over the western
part of the country and will begin to shut off the moisture flow
into the local area and reduce thunderstorm development to
isolated areas mainly along the international border.

For Friday and next weekend, expect mostly dry conditions and very
warm temperatures as the area of high pressure builds over New
Mexico and pushes the moisture plume back over Arizona, leaving
our area dry. Temperatures under these dry conditions will warm to
the lower 100`s for much of the desert lowlands. Too early to tell
if afternoon temperature readings will reach heat advisory levels.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR conditions will be the prevailing flight category for all
terminals through the period. Skies developing FEW/SCT CU at
100-120 ft aft 18Z. AFT 18Z SCT TSRA ovr area MTNS, with iso MVFR
due to reduced vsby in rain shafts. AFT 21Z,  ISO TSRA ovr
lowlands and in VCTY of terminals, but probs too low to include in
TAFs. Winds quite variable across the terminal btwn 05-12kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 111 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Mainly low-end fire weather concerns through the week. As the
upper level high shifts east, storm chances will increase,
especially for mountain areas this afternoon through Wednesday.
Storm coverage will be scattered mountains and isolated lowlands
with highest wetting rain amounts expected for the Gila Region and
secondarily the Sacramento Mountains. Additional thunderstorms
are expected Thursday with more limited coverage as high pressure
rebuilds over the area. With high pressure in place, Friday and
next weekend will be mostly dry with a few isolated storms over
the mountains in the afternoon.

Temperatures will continue well above average, with afternoon max
temps 5-8 degrees above normal. Relative humidity will show fair
nightly recoveries, with generally dry afternoons. Some areas will
see minRH drop into the teens, but nothing excessively dry. With
some semblance of high pressure over the region, winds will be
generally weak to moderate, with the ever-present chances for
gusty and erratic outflow winds due to storms. Vent rates during
the day will be good to very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  77 101  76 100 /  20  30  40  10
Sierra Blanca            68  94  67  93 /  10  30  40  30
Las Cruces               71  99  70  99 /  20  30  40  10
Alamogordo               69  98  68  96 /  10  20  30  10
Cloudcroft               54  73  52  73 /  10  50  30  40
Truth or Consequences    70  95  68  94 /  30  30  30  10
Silver City              63  87  62  88 /  30  60  30  20
Deming                   70  96  68  97 /  30  40  40  10
Lordsburg                68  93  67  94 /  40  50  40  10
West El Paso Metro       75  98  73  98 /  20  30  40  10
Dell City                72  99  71  98 /  10  20  20  20
Fort Hancock             72 100  71 100 /  10  30  40  20
Loma Linda               69  92  68  91 /  10  30  40  10
Fabens                   72  98  72  98 /  20  30  40  10
Santa Teresa             72  97  71  96 /  20  30  40  10
White Sands HQ           73  98  72  98 /  20  30  40  10
Jornada Range            70  97  68  96 /  20  30  40  10
Hatch                    70  99  67  98 /  30  30  40  10
Columbus                 72  96  71  96 /  30  30  40  10
Orogrande                70  96  69  95 /  20  30  40  10
Mayhill                  57  86  56  85 /  10  50  30  40
Mescalero                58  85  57  85 /  10  50  30  40
Timberon                 56  84  55  83 /  10  40  30  30
Winston                  57  86  57  86 /  40  70  30  20
Hillsboro                66  93  64  93 /  30  50  40  10
Spaceport                68  96  65  95 /  20  30  30  10
Lake Roberts             57  87  57  88 /  40  80  30  30
Hurley                   64  91  62  91 /  30  50  30  10
Cliff                    64  96  64  98 /  40  60  30  20
Mule Creek               64  89  64  91 /  40  60  30  10
Faywood                  66  91  64  90 /  30  50  40  10
Animas                   68  93  67  94 /  40  60  50  10
Hachita                  68  93  66  94 /  30  50  40  10
Antelope Wells           66  91  65  92 /  40  60  40  10
Cloverdale               63  86  63  88 /  50  70  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen