Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
522 FXUS64 KEPZ 282343 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 543 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued daily thunderstorms Sunday and Monday but will be lesser coverage than what we have seen the past few days. Best chances for rain are in the area mountains. - Better coverage for storms promoting heavy rainfall increases throughout the work week starting Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1106 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Upper level high pressure will try to establish itself over NM and AZ today which will add some drying to western areas but the best moisture will be settled over Hudspeth and Otero counties. A sharp moisture gradient is evident in the water vapor where at low, mid, and high levels the edge of the gradient is sitting just east of Deming, Hatch, and Salinas Peak. Locations east of the gradient will have storms with the ingredients for localized flooding, whereas locations east of this gradient will be less intense storms due to the lack of moisture. Due to the drier air, DCAPE values in this area are expected to be 1000J/kg+ causing concern for gusty outflow winds if a storm were to grow somewhat strong. The areas along and slightly east/west of this boundary could be a focus area for storms that produce hail. This has been the trend the last couple days where storms that are able to ingest mid level dry air have been able to produce some sub-severe hail. CAPE values are plentiful today ranging from 1000J/kg-3000J/kg but shear continues to be lacking which will allow for storms to mostly pop up and collapse on itself triggering new storms via outflow. After sunset tonight, activity will continue to diminish and will cease by late tonight. Moisture will linger over much of the same areas again tomorrow, perhaps a bit more drier air intruding to the area pushing the moisture stream a bit further eastward. Can expect another round of afternoon thunderstorms just like today but maybe even more isolated coverage out west and in the Gila. Moisture funnels westward overnight into Monday morning allowing another round of afternoon thunderstorms. Sunday and Monday are similar in that western areas and the Gila will feature isolated storms with better coverage in Hudspeth and Otero counties where the better moisture is. Likewise, localized flooding still remains possible in eastern areas as moisture continues to stay above average. High pressure sets over the area Sunday and especially into Monday which will help to suppress convection. Meanwhile, a cutoff low just off the coast of California will slowly inch closer to the Borderland starting Tuesday. The aforementioned high pressure looks to be broken down by this cutoff low which will help slug monsoonal moisture into the area. Tuesday and Wednesday will be similar with afternoon thunderstorms expected across the area. Wednesday may be a bit more active as we have better monsoonal flow being set up. But Wednesday night into Thursday and especially Thursday night into Friday looks to be active with overnight rain chances. Flooding will be the main concern from thunderstorms next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 532 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Isolated storms have produced gusty outflows to 25kts capable of BLDU for all terminals early this evening. KDMN and KELP are most likely to see gusty winds for a short period as the activity dissipates around sunset. A few showers linger past sunset near and west of KLRU with mid clouds hanging around for much of the night. Radar and satellite trends will be monitored for possible amendments this evening. Isolated showers and storms develop tomorrow afternoon with confidence too low for any mention in this TAF cycle. Outside of gusty outflows, prevailing winds will be AOB 10kts from S-SE. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1106 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Elevated fire danger exists in portions of the Gila region tomorrow due to min RH values of 8-15% but our saving grace will be light wind speeds 5-10 mph (20 foot). Winds stay light over the week ahead with light afternoon breezes and calm drainage winds overnight. Critical RHs exist generally west of the Rio Grande tomorrow afternoon but a good moisture surge will occur late Sunday into Monday where moisture will push east to west bringing max RHs of 50- 80% along and east of the Rio Grande. Near critical to critical min RHs Monday afternoon in the Gila region but elsewhere will see min RHs generally 18% out west and 30-40% out east. Storm chances starting Tuesday will continue to increase throughout the week. Heavy rain, flooding (burn scar and regular), and plentiful lightning will be the main hazards. Ventilation rates will be fair to very good tomorrow through Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 73 97 72 95 / 20 20 20 20 Sierra Blanca 65 89 65 86 / 20 30 20 50 Las Cruces 67 95 67 93 / 20 20 20 20 Alamogordo 68 95 67 93 / 20 30 10 30 Cloudcroft 51 73 51 70 / 20 40 10 60 Truth or Consequences 68 97 70 94 / 10 10 10 30 Silver City 62 92 64 90 / 20 20 20 40 Deming 68 99 68 97 / 20 20 20 30 Lordsburg 67 99 69 98 / 10 10 20 30 West El Paso Metro 73 96 73 94 / 20 20 20 20 Dell City 68 93 67 91 / 20 20 20 40 Fort Hancock 70 96 71 95 / 30 30 20 50 Loma Linda 66 88 65 86 / 30 20 20 30 Fabens 70 97 70 95 / 30 20 20 30 Santa Teresa 70 95 70 93 / 20 20 20 30 White Sands HQ 73 96 72 94 / 20 20 20 30 Jornada Range 68 96 67 94 / 20 20 20 30 Hatch 68 99 67 97 / 20 20 20 30 Columbus 71 98 71 96 / 20 20 20 20 Orogrande 67 93 67 91 / 20 20 20 30 Mayhill 56 83 54 79 / 20 40 10 70 Mescalero 55 84 55 81 / 20 30 10 50 Timberon 53 79 53 78 / 20 40 20 50 Winston 56 89 57 88 / 20 10 10 50 Hillsboro 64 96 65 94 / 20 10 10 50 Spaceport 65 96 65 94 / 20 20 10 30 Lake Roberts 58 93 59 91 / 10 20 20 50 Hurley 62 94 63 91 / 20 20 20 40 Cliff 64 100 65 99 / 10 10 10 30 Mule Creek 61 97 62 96 / 10 10 10 30 Faywood 65 93 65 91 / 20 20 20 40 Animas 68 99 68 99 / 10 20 20 30 Hachita 66 97 67 96 / 20 20 20 30 Antelope Wells 68 97 68 96 / 20 20 20 30 Cloverdale 67 93 68 93 / 10 20 20 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson