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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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948 FXUS64 KEPZ 122017 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 217 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 111 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Warm conditions with limited thunderstorm activity will continue across the region this week. Day time temperatures are expected remain several degrees above normal with upper 90s to lower 100`s expected across the lowlands. Thunderstorm activity will increase this afternoon through Wednesday with scattered storms over the mountains and areas west of the Continental Divide, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible over the rest of the lowland areas. Conditions become drier later in the week and next weekend as high pressure and reduced moisture limits thunderstorm develop to isolated areas of the mountains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 111 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 The weather pattern will continue to be warm with above normal temperatures, but will also become a bit Late week, likely Friday, we see high pressure aloft, building back over the area. Models suggest we cut off moisture from moving in, and move out any moisture in place to our south. This will mean warmer and drier conditions, with fewer storms for the upcoming weekend.more active over the next three days as a combination of weakening high pressure aloft, a high upper level disturbance moving into the area from the southeast, and a modest increase in moisture will lead to more widespread shower and thunderstorm develop as compared to the last several days of mostly dry weather. So far this afternoon, considerable cumulus cloud development is underway, especially along area mountains. This is driven in part by increased moisture and a weak upper tropospheric level disturbance providing some additional lift along with day time heating of the surface layer boundary. The upper level feature does not show up strongly in the models but is visible in the latest water vapor imagery moving to the northwest toward our area from the Big Bend region of Texas. Terrain driven lift and upslope flow is contributing to the cloud and storm development this afternoon which will lead to scattered showers and storms for mountain locations as well as nearby lowland areas. The lowland deserts away from the mountains will see a more isolated distribution of storms with spotty accumulations. Rain amounts are not expected to be that high, however it will not take much rainfall to impact sensitive burn scar areas in the Sacramento Mountains. Tuesday will have our best chances for rain as we see further weakening of the high aloft as the center of the high shifts east toward eastern Texas in response to a Pacific trough moving inland on the west coast. This pattern shift will drag the monsoonal moisture plume eastward from Arizona to New Mexico, increasing our chances for widespread shower and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Added lift and forcing from the Pacific trough will aid in storm development especially over the mountains and areas to the north in northern New Mexico and Colorado. Wednesday may continue the widespread thunderstorm activity as the high aloft remains split into east and west halves with the weakest portion located over New Mexico. The moisture plume will continue to straddle the region at least for a portion of Wednesday, helping to fuel additional thunderstorm development over the region. On Thursday the high aloft will begin rebuild over the western part of the country and will begin to shut off the moisture flow into the local area and reduce thunderstorm development to isolated areas mainly along the international border. For Friday and next weekend, expect mostly dry conditions and very warm temperatures as the area of high pressure builds over New Mexico and pushes the moisture plume back over Arizona, leaving our area dry. Temperatures under these dry conditions will warm to the lower 100`s for much of the desert lowlands. Too early to tell if afternoon temperature readings will reach heat advisory levels. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 VFR conditions will be the prevailing flight category for all terminals through the period. Skies developing FEW/SCT CU at 100-120 ft aft 18Z. AFT 18Z SCT TSRA ovr area MTNS, with iso MVFR due to reduced vsby in rain shafts. AFT 21Z, ISO TSRA ovr lowlands and in VCTY of terminals, but probs too low to include in TAFs. Winds quite variable across the terminal btwn 05-12kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 111 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Mainly low-end fire weather concerns through the week. As the upper level high shifts east, storm chances will increase, especially for mountain areas this afternoon through Wednesday. Storm coverage will be scattered mountains and isolated lowlands with highest wetting rain amounts expected for the Gila Region and secondarily the Sacramento Mountains. Additional thunderstorms are expected Thursday with more limited coverage as high pressure rebuilds over the area. With high pressure in place, Friday and next weekend will be mostly dry with a few isolated storms over the mountains in the afternoon. Temperatures will continue well above average, with afternoon max temps 5-8 degrees above normal. Relative humidity will show fair nightly recoveries, with generally dry afternoons. Some areas will see minRH drop into the teens, but nothing excessively dry. With some semblance of high pressure over the region, winds will be generally weak to moderate, with the ever-present chances for gusty and erratic outflow winds due to storms. Vent rates during the day will be good to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 77 101 76 100 / 20 30 40 10 Sierra Blanca 68 94 67 93 / 10 30 40 30 Las Cruces 71 99 70 99 / 20 30 40 10 Alamogordo 69 98 68 96 / 10 20 30 10 Cloudcroft 54 73 52 73 / 10 50 30 40 Truth or Consequences 70 95 68 94 / 30 30 30 10 Silver City 63 87 62 88 / 30 60 30 20 Deming 70 96 68 97 / 30 40 40 10 Lordsburg 68 93 67 94 / 40 50 40 10 West El Paso Metro 75 98 73 98 / 20 30 40 10 Dell City 72 99 71 98 / 10 20 20 20 Fort Hancock 72 100 71 100 / 10 30 40 20 Loma Linda 69 92 68 91 / 10 30 40 10 Fabens 72 98 72 98 / 20 30 40 10 Santa Teresa 72 97 71 96 / 20 30 40 10 White Sands HQ 73 98 72 98 / 20 30 40 10 Jornada Range 70 97 68 96 / 20 30 40 10 Hatch 70 99 67 98 / 30 30 40 10 Columbus 72 96 71 96 / 30 30 40 10 Orogrande 70 96 69 95 / 20 30 40 10 Mayhill 57 86 56 85 / 10 50 30 40 Mescalero 58 85 57 85 / 10 50 30 40 Timberon 56 84 55 83 / 10 40 30 30 Winston 57 86 57 86 / 40 70 30 20 Hillsboro 66 93 64 93 / 30 50 40 10 Spaceport 68 96 65 95 / 20 30 30 10 Lake Roberts 57 87 57 88 / 40 80 30 30 Hurley 64 91 62 91 / 30 50 30 10 Cliff 64 96 64 98 / 40 60 30 20 Mule Creek 64 89 64 91 / 40 60 30 10 Faywood 66 91 64 90 / 30 50 40 10 Animas 68 93 67 94 / 40 60 50 10 Hachita 68 93 66 94 / 30 50 40 10 Antelope Wells 66 91 65 92 / 40 60 40 10 Cloverdale 63 86 63 88 / 50 70 40 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen