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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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292 FXUS64 KEPZ 101131 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 531 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Today will be another active day of strong thunderstorms developing across the area in the afternoon producing periods of hail, strong gusty winds, blowing dust, and moderate to heavy rainfall. Mountain areas will see the most storm activity with a potential for flooding from heavy rainfall. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is also expected again on Thursday. Drier air moving into the area will reduce chances for rain and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. Moisture will return by next week for increased rain and thunderstorm activity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Another active day of strong thunderstorms generating periods of hail, strong gusty winds, blowing dust, and moderate to heavy rainfall is expected this afternoon and evening. The basic weather pattern that helped generate yestersday`s strong storms remains in place over the state. Small impulses are dropping south over the area as part of a circulation around a high still anchored near the west coast. These impulses will help trigger thunderstorms in an unstable environment that has sufficient shear, bouyancy to enhance storm development. A low level east flow continues to bring in moisture to sustain and fuel strong to severe thunderstorm development over the local area. Numerous storms will develop over the mountains, especially the Sacramento Mountains, around mid day. Strong outflows from these storms will generate additional scattered storms across the lowlands later in the afternoon. From a rainfall perspective, the mountain areas will see the greatest amounts of rain that could lead to flooding along drainages and mountain streams. A flash flood watch remains in effect this afternoon and evening for possible excessive rainfall causing flooding, especially near sensitive recent wildfire burn scars. For the desert lowlands, high based storms will be capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 60 mph along with considerable blowing dust that could reduce visibilities to less than a mile. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the local area for a marginal risk of severe weather due to the potential for strong winds. On Thursday, the dome of high pressure over California and Nevada will begin shift eastward toward the Four Corners region and Colorado. Impulses embedded in the circulation around the high will still provide an decent environment for strong storm development across the area on Thursday, but the focus may shift slightly more to the west as drier upper level and mid level air begins to move into the area from the east. Friday and Saturday will be less active weather days as the dome of high pressure completes its transition to re-center over Colorado. this will place the area under an easterly flow pattern aloft that will tap drier continental air and move it into the state. Deeper moisture will be pushed further west into Arizona with an increase in thunderstorm activity expected in that state. Locally, with drier more stable conditions in place, thunderstorm development will be restricted to mountain zones and areas generally west of the Continental divide toward the Arizona state line. During period of weather temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly above seasonal averages, meaning upper 90s to near 100 for the desert lowlands. The forecast becomes more uncertain for the long term outlook periods of Sunday and the first part of next week. Long term models project that dome of high pressure will remain in place over Colorado, but will become more ill-defined. Deeper moisture is expected to move back into the state for increased rain chances. In addition, models project that a weak low pressure circulation will develop over New Mexico and stall out over the state for several days. This low could enhance thunderstorm development and facilitate a return of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to the region with a potential for heavy rain and possible flooding. This forecast remains uncertain at this time, but bears watching. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Quiet weather conditions should occur the rest of this morning with with sct-bkn200-250 with variable winds less than 10 kts. A very active pattern of numerous mountain and scattered lowland thunderstorms will develop after 18z. There will be a potential for strong winds and blowing dust from thunderstorms that develop over the lowlands that could reduce visibilities at area airports to MVFR and IFR conditions, this afternoon and early evening. Gusts up to 60 mph and visibilities to less than a mile in blowing dust will be possible in the lowlands this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm activity will diminish in the late evening hours after 03Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Fire concerns will remain lower through the period as southeast surface winds keep low level moisture in place with minimum RH values in the upper teens and 20s for the lowlands and 30s and 40s in the mountains. There will be a daily chance for numerous mountain and scattered lowland showers and thunderstorms with the greatest coverage expected this afternoon and again on Thursday. These storms will produce strong wind gusts and blowing dust along with hail and moderate to heavy rainfall. Temperatures will remain near average during this time. Slightly drier air moves in for Fri/Sat, reducing thunderstorm coverage to main areas west of the continental divide. Another moisture push arrives early next week, resulting in more widespread thunderstorm activity. Winds through the period will be on the light side except near thunderstorms. Vent rates will be good to excellent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 98 75 98 76 / 50 50 30 20 Sierra Blanca 91 67 90 66 / 40 30 30 20 Las Cruces 98 70 97 71 / 50 50 30 30 Alamogordo 94 65 92 65 / 60 40 40 20 Cloudcroft 70 49 69 49 / 80 70 70 20 Truth or Consequences 95 69 94 69 / 40 40 40 40 Silver City 90 64 88 64 / 50 40 70 60 Deming 98 69 97 69 / 50 50 50 50 Lordsburg 98 70 98 71 / 40 50 60 60 West El Paso Metro 96 75 96 75 / 50 50 30 30 Dell City 93 68 94 68 / 40 30 30 10 Fort Hancock 98 72 97 71 / 40 40 30 20 Loma Linda 90 67 89 67 / 50 40 40 20 Fabens 98 73 97 73 / 40 40 30 10 Santa Teresa 95 70 95 72 / 50 50 30 30 White Sands HQ 95 72 94 73 / 60 50 40 30 Jornada Range 95 65 94 67 / 50 50 40 40 Hatch 98 67 97 68 / 50 50 40 40 Columbus 99 71 97 72 / 50 50 50 50 Orogrande 93 68 92 68 / 60 50 50 20 Mayhill 80 54 80 54 / 90 50 70 20 Mescalero 80 54 80 54 / 80 70 70 20 Timberon 79 53 78 53 / 80 60 60 20 Winston 87 57 86 57 / 50 40 70 50 Hillsboro 93 65 91 66 / 50 50 60 60 Spaceport 95 63 92 64 / 50 40 40 30 Lake Roberts 89 60 89 59 / 50 40 70 60 Hurley 93 64 92 64 / 40 40 60 50 Cliff 99 64 99 64 / 40 40 70 50 Mule Creek 95 66 93 67 / 30 40 70 60 Faywood 92 65 90 66 / 50 50 60 60 Animas 100 69 99 69 / 40 50 60 70 Hachita 98 67 97 69 / 40 50 60 70 Antelope Wells 98 68 97 69 / 50 60 60 70 Cloverdale 94 67 93 67 / 50 60 70 80 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ415- 416. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen