![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
391 FXUS64 KEPZ 132026 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 226 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 156 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Above average moisture will shift eastward through tomorrow, allowing for the greatest coverage of storms on Wednesday to favor the eastern portion of the forecast area. Drier conditions and warmer temperatures will take hold Thursday and beyond. Temperatures will surpass 100 degrees and creep towards Heat Advisory criteria for the lowlands on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 High pressure has meandered over to the ArkLaTex region today, allowing for an expansive ridge over the Great Plains. Meanwhile, an incoming trough to the PacNW is working to increase westerly flow aloft, pushing the monsoonal plume of moisture eastward. It will continue on this trek throughout today and into tomorrow, allowing for the focus of convection to also shift. After several days of PWATs near 0.85in, the 12Z sounding this morning revealed a PWAT of 1.16in. The above average moisture will stick around into Wednesday, with storm activity likely to focus along and east of the Sacramento and Hueco Mts. Slightly cooler temperatures will prevail with most areas between 1F and 3F below Tuesday`s readings. A regime of split high pressure takes shape into Thursday as a stout 596dam high in the Pacific begins its trek inland to SoCal. Elongating in its travels, the feature will work to block access to the monsoonal moisture plume, shutting down any convective potential through the end of the week. Temperatures begin ticking up with the rise in pressure heights, hitting their peak on Friday as the eastern edge of the high`s center reaches into western NM. Max temperatures for the lowlands will climb near Heat Advisory criteria, and should the trend continue, heat highlights may be needed in future updates. High pressure will wobble slowly eastward through the weekend and into early next week, offering little relief to the heat and few chances for rain. The high finally moves far enough north and east Saturday to allow the monsoonal plume to flirt with far western NM. Isolated to widely scattered storms will stay localized to the NM/AZ border, with the best storm chances favoring AZ once again. The high strengthens to a stout 598dam as it moves over the TX Panhandle Monday with threat of retrograding come Tuesday. Should that solution pan out, more dry and very hot weather would be in the Borderland`s future. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 An increase in moisture will bring more widespread shwrs/tstms throughout the TAF period. Expect currently isold coverage to increase this aftn with initiation across the mts spreading to the neighboring lowlands. Direct hits to terminals may create brief and lcl reductions in cigs/vsbys resulting in MVFR/IFR conditions. Outflow winds may cause sudden wind shifts and gusts above 35 kts. Convective activity will diminish throughout the evening, with dry conditions prevailing most areas aft 14/06Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 156 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected during the forecast period, though elevated conditions will exist due to increasing dryness. Isolated to scattered storms will return Wednesday with the best coverage favoring the Sacramento and Hueco Mountains in the afternoon. Relative humidity values will sit in the high teens to twenty percent range through Thursday before lowland values plummet below 15 percent. These drier conditions will increase in coverage through early next week. Weak flow aloft thanks to upper level high pressure will allow for surface winds to remain light and generally influenced by terrain for their direction. Vent rates will improve from fair to good through Thursday, then good to excellent towards early next week for most areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 77 99 78 103 / 60 20 10 0 Sierra Blanca 68 92 69 94 / 50 50 30 20 Las Cruces 71 98 72 103 / 50 10 10 0 Alamogordo 68 96 72 99 / 40 20 10 10 Cloudcroft 52 72 55 75 / 40 50 10 20 Truth or Consequences 69 95 72 99 / 40 10 0 0 Silver City 62 88 64 92 / 30 20 0 10 Deming 69 97 71 101 / 40 10 10 0 Lordsburg 67 94 69 98 / 30 10 0 10 West El Paso Metro 74 97 76 101 / 60 20 10 10 Dell City 70 98 70 101 / 40 40 10 10 Fort Hancock 72 98 73 102 / 50 40 20 10 Loma Linda 67 90 70 94 / 50 30 20 10 Fabens 72 98 74 101 / 50 20 10 10 Santa Teresa 72 96 73 100 / 60 20 10 10 White Sands HQ 73 96 75 100 / 50 20 10 10 Jornada Range 69 96 71 100 / 30 10 10 10 Hatch 68 98 70 102 / 50 10 10 0 Columbus 71 96 74 101 / 50 10 10 0 Orogrande 69 95 71 98 / 50 20 10 10 Mayhill 57 83 58 87 / 40 60 10 20 Mescalero 56 85 57 88 / 40 50 10 20 Timberon 55 82 57 85 / 40 40 10 20 Winston 57 86 59 90 / 40 20 10 10 Hillsboro 64 92 67 97 / 50 20 10 10 Spaceport 67 95 69 99 / 40 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 56 88 58 92 / 40 30 10 10 Hurley 62 91 65 96 / 30 20 0 10 Cliff 62 98 65 103 / 30 10 0 10 Mule Creek 63 91 65 95 / 30 10 0 10 Faywood 64 90 67 95 / 40 10 10 10 Animas 67 93 68 99 / 50 20 10 10 Hachita 66 93 68 98 / 40 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 66 91 66 97 / 50 30 10 10 Cloverdale 63 87 64 92 / 50 30 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ415-416. && $$ FORECASTER...40-Breitreiter