391
FXUS64 KEPZ 132026
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
226 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 156 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Above average moisture will shift eastward through tomorrow,
allowing for the greatest coverage of storms on Wednesday to favor
the eastern portion of the forecast area. Drier conditions and
warmer temperatures will take hold Thursday and beyond. Temperatures
will surpass 100 degrees and creep towards Heat Advisory criteria
for the lowlands on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

High pressure has meandered over to the ArkLaTex region today,
allowing for an expansive ridge over the Great Plains. Meanwhile, an
incoming trough to the PacNW is working to increase westerly flow
aloft, pushing the monsoonal plume of moisture eastward. It will
continue on this trek throughout today and into tomorrow, allowing
for the focus of convection to also shift. After several days of
PWATs near 0.85in, the 12Z sounding this morning revealed a PWAT
of 1.16in. The above average moisture will stick around into
Wednesday, with storm activity likely to focus along and east of
the Sacramento and Hueco Mts. Slightly cooler temperatures will
prevail with most areas between 1F and 3F below Tuesday`s
readings.

A regime of split high pressure takes shape into Thursday as a stout
596dam high in the Pacific begins its trek inland to SoCal.
Elongating in its travels, the feature will work to block access to
the monsoonal moisture plume, shutting down any convective potential
through the end of the week. Temperatures begin ticking up with the
rise in pressure heights, hitting their peak on Friday as the
eastern edge of the high`s center reaches into western NM. Max
temperatures for the lowlands will climb near Heat Advisory
criteria, and should the trend continue, heat highlights may be
needed in future updates.

High pressure will wobble slowly eastward through the weekend and
into early next week, offering little relief to the heat and few
chances for rain. The high finally moves far enough north and east
Saturday to allow the monsoonal plume to flirt with far western
NM. Isolated to widely scattered storms will stay localized to the
NM/AZ border, with the best storm chances favoring AZ once again.
The high strengthens to a stout 598dam as it moves over the TX
Panhandle Monday with threat of retrograding come Tuesday. Should
that solution pan out, more dry and very hot weather would be in
the Borderland`s future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

An increase in moisture will bring more widespread shwrs/tstms
throughout the TAF period. Expect currently isold coverage to
increase this aftn with initiation across the mts spreading to the
neighboring lowlands. Direct hits to terminals may create brief
and lcl reductions in cigs/vsbys resulting in MVFR/IFR conditions.
Outflow winds may cause sudden wind shifts and gusts above 35 kts.
Convective activity will diminish throughout the evening, with dry
conditions prevailing most areas aft 14/06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected during the
forecast period, though elevated conditions will exist due to
increasing dryness. Isolated to scattered storms will return
Wednesday with the best coverage favoring the Sacramento and Hueco
Mountains in the afternoon. Relative humidity values will sit in the
high teens to twenty percent range through Thursday before lowland
values plummet below 15 percent. These drier conditions will
increase in coverage through early next week. Weak flow aloft
thanks to upper level high pressure will allow for surface winds
to remain light and generally influenced by terrain for their
direction. Vent rates will improve from fair to good through
Thursday, then good to excellent towards early next week for most
areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  77  99  78 103 /  60  20  10   0
Sierra Blanca            68  92  69  94 /  50  50  30  20
Las Cruces               71  98  72 103 /  50  10  10   0
Alamogordo               68  96  72  99 /  40  20  10  10
Cloudcroft               52  72  55  75 /  40  50  10  20
Truth or Consequences    69  95  72  99 /  40  10   0   0
Silver City              62  88  64  92 /  30  20   0  10
Deming                   69  97  71 101 /  40  10  10   0
Lordsburg                67  94  69  98 /  30  10   0  10
West El Paso Metro       74  97  76 101 /  60  20  10  10
Dell City                70  98  70 101 /  40  40  10  10
Fort Hancock             72  98  73 102 /  50  40  20  10
Loma Linda               67  90  70  94 /  50  30  20  10
Fabens                   72  98  74 101 /  50  20  10  10
Santa Teresa             72  96  73 100 /  60  20  10  10
White Sands HQ           73  96  75 100 /  50  20  10  10
Jornada Range            69  96  71 100 /  30  10  10  10
Hatch                    68  98  70 102 /  50  10  10   0
Columbus                 71  96  74 101 /  50  10  10   0
Orogrande                69  95  71  98 /  50  20  10  10
Mayhill                  57  83  58  87 /  40  60  10  20
Mescalero                56  85  57  88 /  40  50  10  20
Timberon                 55  82  57  85 /  40  40  10  20
Winston                  57  86  59  90 /  40  20  10  10
Hillsboro                64  92  67  97 /  50  20  10  10
Spaceport                67  95  69  99 /  40  10  10   0
Lake Roberts             56  88  58  92 /  40  30  10  10
Hurley                   62  91  65  96 /  30  20   0  10
Cliff                    62  98  65 103 /  30  10   0  10
Mule Creek               63  91  65  95 /  30  10   0  10
Faywood                  64  90  67  95 /  40  10  10  10
Animas                   67  93  68  99 /  50  20  10  10
Hachita                  66  93  68  98 /  40  10  10   0
Antelope Wells           66  91  66  97 /  50  30  10  10
Cloverdale               63  87  64  92 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...40-Breitreiter