Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
460 FXUS64 KEPZ 090001 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 601 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 543 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 - Lower grade monsoon conditions expected for the next several days, though northerly flow aloft will favor thunderstorms working into the lowlands in the evenings, especially in southwestern New Mexico. - Some lowland storms could bring gusty winds and blowing dust as low level moisture becomes limited. - High temperatures will run about 5 to 10 degrees above normal through the end of the week. - Uptick in thunderstorm coverage possible Friday and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Today, models are predicting a repeat of yesterdays monsoon patterns. Conditions are expected to remain relatively calm through early afternoon. As the day progresses isolated to scattered storms are expected to develop with the most favorable conditions being east of the Continental Divide. A weak high pressure will try to establish itself over the Four Corners area, repressing some development and will begin pushing moisture out of our CWA overnight. Tomorrow is when we will see the atmosphere really begin to dry out. Isolated thunderstorms and pop-up showers will be possible due to left over moisture from previous storms, mainly along the slopes in Otero, Sierra, and Grant counties. Temperatures will continue to increase again seeing temperatures in the upper 90s with some areas possibly seeing 100-102 degrees. As the week progresses the upper high becomes established over the southern CA area with an W-E elongated ridge axis extending through the area. Isolated thunderstorms and pop-up showers are possible for the rest of the week but development will stay mostly in the mountains. Thursday and Friday will see the highest temperatures with a possible Heat Advisory being issued for the El Paso Metro and parts of the Rio Grande River Valley with temps into the 105-107 range. EC indicates Thu being the hottest while the GFS shows Fri. Ensemble means both indicate Thu just slightly cooler than Fri. As we get into the weekend that High Pressure system will propagate to off the California Coast while another high becomes established over the SE CONUS. A weak upper disturbance will move through the TX Panhandle and allow for an influx of moisture increasing the chance for thunderstorms. Heading into next week, a weak trough/low will begin to form over Eastern New Mexico and Northern Mexico. With the abundance of atmospheric moisture, heavy rain events may be possible. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Ongoing convection has moved out of most terminals except for DMN, where outflow should arrive from the east before 01Z. Other than a gusty wind shift, will need to watch for additional thunderstorm development as it moves through. Strong complex of gusty thunderstorms pushing south over the Tularosa Basin will also need to be watched for ELP eventually, but will most likely diminish in intensity as it reaches less stable, worked-over air. Similar pattern for tomorrow, though with slightly less coverage expected. Still enough for PROB30s for thunder at TCS and DMN. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Daily thunderstorm chances will continue, especially over the area mountains but drier air will be filtering in through Friday. Expect high temperatures on the lowlands to get into the upper 90s to around 105 by Thursday which will lower RH`s into the mid teens, but the mountains will generally remain in the 20s. Winds will be on the light side through Thursday and a slightly breezy day with west to northwest winds for Friday. Moisture starts to return for the weekend with an uptick in thunderstorm chances and RH`s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 76 102 78 104 / 20 10 10 10 Sierra Blanca 69 93 69 96 / 20 10 0 10 Las Cruces 72 99 72 100 / 20 10 10 10 Alamogordo 69 98 72 100 / 30 20 0 10 Cloudcroft 54 75 56 77 / 30 30 0 30 Truth or Consequences 72 100 75 101 / 10 10 10 20 Silver City 63 94 68 95 / 30 40 40 50 Deming 70 102 73 103 / 20 10 30 20 Lordsburg 72 102 73 101 / 20 20 30 20 West El Paso Metro 76 99 78 101 / 20 10 10 10 Dell City 68 96 67 98 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 100 74 103 / 20 10 0 10 Loma Linda 68 92 70 95 / 20 10 0 10 Fabens 74 100 75 104 / 20 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 73 98 75 100 / 20 0 10 10 White Sands HQ 73 99 77 101 / 20 10 10 10 Jornada Range 70 99 72 100 / 20 10 10 20 Hatch 71 102 73 103 / 20 10 20 20 Columbus 74 102 75 103 / 20 0 20 10 Orogrande 71 98 72 98 / 20 10 0 10 Mayhill 59 85 61 89 / 30 30 0 20 Mescalero 58 86 61 89 / 40 30 0 30 Timberon 57 82 57 84 / 20 20 0 20 Winston 61 92 62 94 / 20 30 20 40 Hillsboro 68 99 70 100 / 30 20 30 30 Spaceport 69 98 70 100 / 20 10 10 20 Lake Roberts 57 93 57 95 / 40 50 40 50 Hurley 65 96 68 97 / 30 30 40 40 Cliff 61 99 62 100 / 30 30 40 40 Mule Creek 59 97 60 98 / 30 30 30 30 Faywood 69 95 70 96 / 30 20 30 40 Animas 72 101 74 101 / 30 20 30 20 Hachita 71 101 72 101 / 30 10 30 20 Antelope Wells 71 99 72 99 / 30 20 30 30 Cloverdale 70 95 69 95 / 30 20 40 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26