159
FXUS64 KEPZ 170817
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
217 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Unseasonably warm conditions this week with rain chances limited
to far western New Mexico and the mountain forests. Lowland high
temperatures will reach the triple digit mark each afternoon into
late August.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Center of strong high pressure aloft sits over eastern New Mexico
this morning. Erosion of precipitable water across far west Texas
and south-central New Mexico will accelerate this afternoon as
surface southeast flow pushes the primary monsoonal plume of
moisture westward into Arizona. Models show El Paso`s PW falling
from 0.9" to around 0.7" today. This should be dry and stable
enough to prevent any thunderstorm chances, with most of the I-25
and US-54 corridor staying dry and hot. Might see a few isolated
showers over the Gila Wilderness and Continental Divide, but low
coverage and low intensity. Temperatures will be unseasonably hot
again today, 8-12 degrees above normal for mid- August. Lowland
highs 100-105. A Heat Advisory is in effect for El Paso and the
Lower Valley where the best chances of reaching 105 degrees
exists.

An extended period of dry and hot weather remains on tap this
upcoming week. Stagnant upper high will remain latched to the
eastern New Mexico/Texas Panhandle region, with very few day- to-
day weather changes. Temperatures will consistently run 5-10
degrees above climate normals and rain chances will be slim to
none, favoring the AZ/NM state line if at all. El Paso`s high
temperature will hover around 102-105 each afternoon, and NBM
probabilities show good confidence in that.

Next shift in the weather pattern won`t be until late next week
at least, when ensemble solutions show agreement in the ejection
of a strong Pacific NW low pressure system, which looks strong
enough to finally erode this blocking high and adjust our weather
pattern. Still unsure what that adjustment would look like, but
trending closer to normal for the end of August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Mainly VFR conditions through the period. SCT120 SCT-BKN250 with
isolated BKN080CB-TSRA, mainly west of the Rio Grande Valley,
until 09Z. Developing again after 19Z over the mountains...SCT100
BKN200 isolated BKN070CB 3-5SM -TSRA, spreading to the lowlands
after 22Z. Wind gusts 30-40 knots with these storms Saturday.
Otherwise winds mainly east/southeast 8-12 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Extended period of unseasonably hot and dry weather is expected
this weekend and through much of next week. Temperatures will be
5 to 10 degrees above climate normals, with low rain chances
mostly limited to the Gila National Forest and AZ/NM state line.
This forecast does affect ERCs, with forecast charts showing
rapid drying toward the end of next week. Fire danger becoming
more Elevated again next week, with midday RH 20-30% and surface
winds out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph. Smoke ventilation will be
Good to Very Good with transport to the ENE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 104  79 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            95  69  94  68 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces              102  72 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              100  69  99  69 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               76  53  75  53 /  20   0  10   0
Truth or Consequences    99  71  97  71 /  10  10   0   0
Silver City              93  66  92  66 /  40  20  10   0
Deming                  101  71  99  71 /  10  10   0   0
Lordsburg               100  69  99  71 /  30  30   0  10
West El Paso Metro      102  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               101  69 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            102  73 101  72 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               94  70  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  102  75 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            100  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          101  75  99  74 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range           100  70  98  70 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                   102  70 101  69 /  10  10   0   0
Columbus                101  73  99  74 /  10  10   0   0
Orogrande               100  71  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  87  56  87  57 /  20   0  10   0
Mescalero                88  57  87  57 /  30   0  10   0
Timberon                 87  55  85  55 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  91  59  89  60 /  30  10   0   0
Hillsboro                97  67  96  67 /  20  10   0   0
Spaceport               100  67  98  67 /  10  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             92  59  91  60 /  50  20  10  10
Hurley                   96  66  95  66 /  30  20   0   0
Cliff                   102  65 102  67 /  40  20  10   0
Mule Creek               95  65  94  67 /  40  30  10  10
Faywood                  95  68  94  69 /  20  10   0   0
Animas                  100  69  99  71 /  30  30  10  10
Hachita                 100  68  98  69 /  10  20   0  10
Antelope Wells           99  67  97  69 /  20  20  10  10
Cloverdale               93  65  93  66 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt