030
FXUS64 KEPZ 141133
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
533 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 126 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon mainly
east of the Rio Grande. Showers and thunderstorms chances will
decrease throughout the period as high pressure builds in across
New Mexico. The high temperatures will gradually increase a few
decrease each consecutive day through the weekend. The
temperatures in the lowlands could reach advisory criteria by
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Currently, there are few light showers across our CWA all the way
from southern Luna to northeastern Otero Counties. There are some
light showers across the Chihuahua as well that may entire out CWA
this morning. However, the atmosphere is becoming more stable, so
I don`t expect much in the way of precipitation this morning other
than the remnant showers that will dissipate or move out of our
area. The skies are mostly cloudy; thus, the low temperatures this
morning will be a few degrees warmer than what they were
yesterday morning due to a lack of the radiational cooling. For
today, the conditions will not be as active as they were yesterday
as a ridge of high pressure begins to build in from the
Southwest. The best area to see storm developments will be areas
east of the Rio Grande. Also, a shortwave trough will be across
the Plains with the far east CWA will under the following flow.
There will be some instability, which could generate a few
afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the mountains and areas
along the eastern Otero and Hudspeth counties. Some CAMs are
suggesting a few showers developing in the Gila Region and
Bootheel area in the afternoon as well. The main concerns with any
of the storms that develop will be heavy rainfall that could lead
to flash flooding. The high temperature this afternoon for El
Paso will be somewhat similar to that of the yesterday due to mid
and high level cloud coverage and possibly a few showers toward
the late afternoon hours. Any showers that lingers into the
evening hours should diminish before midnight. Conditions will be
quiet thereafter with the low temperatures above the normal.

For the rest of the period, any active weather will be confined to
the mountains. There will be some days where conditions will be
quiet due to the placement of an upper level ridge of high
pressure. Toward the end of the week, the upper level ridge will
be centered across New Mexico. Due to this, the geopotential
height will increase allowing for the temperatures to increase a
few degrees from what they are forecast to be today. The
temperatures on Friday and Saturday are expected to be at or very
near the 105 degrees for El Paso and the Lower Valley. As of now,
the NBM 75th through 95th percentiles are flirting with the high
temperatures between 105 and 106 degrees on Friday and Saturday.
Went with the 75th percentile due to lack of precipitation and
cloud coverage on the Friday. Also, the 850mb temperatures at
least with the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models suggest the
temperatures between 93 to 95 degrees. With these temperatures at
this level in the afternoon implies that the high temperatures at
the surface can reach around 105 degrees. Should the solution
trend this way, a Heat Advisory will be needed for El Paso, the
Lower Vally and possibly the rest of the lowlands east of the
Continental Divide for Friday and Saturday. The temperatures
should cool slightly by the latter half of the weekend and into
early next week as the ridge moves over the Plains. However, the
upper level ridge will be re-established across New Mexico by the
Middle to the end on next week, which will allow for the
temperatures to increase to near 105 for the same period with
limited chances for precipitation chances mainly in the lowlands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Expect CIGS
SCT110 to BKN250 at terminals today. Winds expected to remain
light at all terminals through the period. Gusty outflow winds
could be seen again this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms
near terminal sites. Latest run of CAMS shows scattered showers
and thunderstorms again in the mountain areas and east of the Rio
Grande during the afternoon, but confidence is too low to put in
TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the
forecast period, though elevated dry conditions will exist after
today as high pressure is expected to strengthen over the CWA
through early next week. RH values across the area will plummet
into the mid teens by this weekend and into the lower teens by
early next week. Winds are expected to remain light due to
substances from the upper high pressure aloft and mainly
influenced by terrain for their direction through the period. Vent
rates will vary somewhat from good to excellent across the area
through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  99  78 103  79 /  10  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca            91  70  95  69 /  40  30  30  10
Las Cruces               97  72 103  73 /  10  10   0  10
Alamogordo               95  70 100  72 /  20  10  10   0
Cloudcroft               71  55  75  55 /  50  10  20   0
Truth or Consequences    94  72  99  72 /  10  10   0   0
Silver City              88  64  93  66 /  20  10  10   0
Deming                   96  70 101  71 /  20  10   0  10
Lordsburg                94  69  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
West El Paso Metro       96  76 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
Dell City                97  70 100  71 /  30  20  10   0
Fort Hancock             97  73 102  73 /  30  30  20  10
Loma Linda               89  70  93  71 /  30  20  20  10
Fabens                   96  73 100  75 /  20  20  10  10
Santa Teresa             94  73 100  74 /  10  20  10  10
White Sands HQ           96  75 100  76 /  20  10  10  10
Jornada Range            95  71 100  72 /  10  10   0   0
Hatch                    97  70 102  71 /  20  10   0   0
Columbus                 95  73 100  74 /  10  10   0  10
Orogrande                94  70  98  72 /  20  10  10  10
Mayhill                  82  59  87  59 /  60  10  20   0
Mescalero                84  59  88  58 /  50  10  20   0
Timberon                 81  57  85  57 /  50  10  20   0
Winston                  86  60  91  60 /  20  10  10   0
Hillsboro                92  67  98  68 /  20  10   0   0
Spaceport                94  69 100  69 /  10  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             87  58  92  59 /  30  10  10   0
Hurley                   91  65  96  66 /  20  10   0   0
Cliff                    98  65 103  66 /  20  10  10   0
Mule Creek               91  66  95  67 /  10  10   0   0
Faywood                  90  67  95  68 /  20  10  10   0
Animas                   94  68  98  70 /  20  10  10  10
Hachita                  94  68  98  69 /  10  10   0  10
Antelope Wells           91  67  97  68 /  30  10  10  10
Cloverdale               86  64  92  65 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...41-Kelly/36-Texeira