Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
163 FXUS64 KEPZ 070555 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1155 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1148 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - Temperatures above normal into next weekend. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected daily with the highest chance for storms in the mountains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1040 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 UL ridge covers much of the Desert SW this evening, but moisture has returned to the CWA. Additionally, the GFS and WV imagery show a weak vort max or trough axis working through NM. This weak trough axis in addition to several outflow boundaries has led to scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening. HRRR and to a lesser degree NAM Nest forecast convective showers/storms will linger for several more hours likely aided by the passing s/w. The UL high will continue to strengthen while lifting north toward the AZ-NM border on Monday. The placement of the high continues to be a limiting factor for convection, but an offsetting factor will be more ripples rounding the high along with sufficient moisture, which will keep isolated to scattered storms in the picture. We repeat this pattern again on Tuesday. Highs will run near to a few degrees above normal with El Paso running near 100. The high will start to elongate west-east on Wednesday, lasting into Friday, while drawing drier air into NM, but enough moisture will remain in place for isolated to scattered convection, favoring western areas where better moisture will be. We will be near or just over heat advisory for much of the lowlands as well for both Thursday and Friday. Later on Friday, a trough will drop south through the Plains, which will weaken the eastern edge of the ridge while pushing in more moisture. This weakness aloft looks to anchor in place for next weekend as the aforementioned trough links up with an inverted trough from the south. If this pattern verifies, highs should drop while storm chances increase. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 A broad broken band of showers and a few weak storms are lingering across the region, moving from west to east southeast. There is a wide variety of sky conditions, with pockets of low and mid clouds hanging around into the overnight. Rain chances are best for KLRU for the next couple of hours, with other terminals possibly seeing brief light showers for the next few hours also. Outflow boundaries are also in play for the next few hours, with winds briefly variable and gusty to 30 kts. Shower and storm activity will be diminishing through the nightm, with most terminals in VFR conditions, but with tempo MVFR conditions. For Monday, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to again develop bu midday, and persist through the evening. High enough confidence to include PROB30s, for these, with MVFR conditions returning, due to variable strong outflow winds, blowing dust with these outflows, periods of lower CIGS, and reduced vsby in rain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Not many fire weather issues to concern us. Heavy rainfall possible this afternoon and Monday could cause flooding problems for burn scars. Thunderstorms still possible after the remainder of the week over the burn scars but the threat of heavy rain and flooding will decrease. Temperatures just above normal through Wednesday, then warming to well above normal Thursday into the weekend. Min RH: Lowlands east of the Rio Grande Valley 20-30% through Thursday; Rio Grande Valley west 13-18% through Thursday. Gila/Black Range mountains 13-20% through Thursday; Sacramento Mtns 25-40% through Thursday. Vent rates good Monday and very good-excellent Tuesday through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 78 100 76 101 / 30 20 30 10 Sierra Blanca 68 90 68 92 / 20 30 20 10 Las Cruces 71 97 70 98 / 30 20 40 0 Alamogordo 70 96 71 98 / 30 40 20 20 Cloudcroft 53 72 53 74 / 30 70 10 50 Truth or Consequences 72 97 72 99 / 40 40 30 10 Silver City 65 92 65 94 / 30 40 40 40 Deming 71 101 72 102 / 40 20 50 10 Lordsburg 69 99 70 100 / 30 30 40 20 West El Paso Metro 77 97 76 99 / 40 20 30 10 Dell City 71 95 71 96 / 20 30 10 10 Fort Hancock 76 98 75 100 / 30 30 20 10 Loma Linda 69 90 69 91 / 40 30 20 10 Fabens 75 99 74 100 / 30 20 20 10 Santa Teresa 74 97 73 98 / 40 20 40 10 White Sands HQ 75 97 74 99 / 30 30 30 10 Jornada Range 71 97 71 99 / 30 30 40 10 Hatch 71 100 70 102 / 40 30 40 10 Columbus 74 100 75 100 / 40 10 50 10 Orogrande 71 95 70 96 / 30 30 20 20 Mayhill 58 82 58 83 / 30 80 10 50 Mescalero 58 84 58 85 / 30 70 10 50 Timberon 57 79 57 81 / 30 70 10 40 Winston 59 90 59 92 / 40 50 30 20 Hillsboro 66 97 67 98 / 40 40 40 20 Spaceport 68 97 68 98 / 30 40 30 10 Lake Roberts 60 93 61 95 / 30 50 40 40 Hurley 66 95 65 96 / 30 40 40 30 Cliff 67 100 68 102 / 20 40 40 30 Mule Creek 65 96 66 98 / 10 30 30 30 Faywood 67 94 67 95 / 30 40 40 30 Animas 70 99 71 100 / 40 30 40 20 Hachita 69 98 70 99 / 40 20 50 20 Antelope Wells 69 97 69 99 / 50 40 60 20 Cloverdale 67 92 67 95 / 60 50 60 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird