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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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583 FXUS64 KEPZ 141731 AAB AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1131 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 126 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon mainly east of the Rio Grande. Showers and thunderstorms chances will decrease throughout the period as high pressure builds in across New Mexico. The high temperatures will gradually increase a few decrease each consecutive day through the weekend. The temperatures in the lowlands could reach advisory criteria by Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 126 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Currently, there are few light showers across our CWA all the way from southern Luna to northeastern Otero Counties. There are some light showers across the Chihuahua as well that may entire out CWA this morning. However, the atmosphere is becoming more stable, so I don`t expect much in the way of precipitation this morning other than the remnant showers that will dissipate or move out of our area. The skies are mostly cloudy; thus, the low temperatures this morning will be a few degrees warmer than what they were yesterday morning due to a lack of the radiational cooling. For today, the conditions will not be as active as they were yesterday as a ridge of high pressure begins to build in from the Southwest. The best area to see storm developments will be areas east of the Rio Grande. Also, a shortwave trough will be across the Plains with the far east CWA will under the following flow. There will be some instability, which could generate a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the mountains and areas along the eastern Otero and Hudspeth counties. Some CAMs are suggesting a few showers developing in the Gila Region and Bootheel area in the afternoon as well. The main concerns with any of the storms that develop will be heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. The high temperature this afternoon for El Paso will be somewhat similar to that of the yesterday due to mid and high level cloud coverage and possibly a few showers toward the late afternoon hours. Any showers that lingers into the evening hours should diminish before midnight. Conditions will be quiet thereafter with the low temperatures above the normal. For the rest of the period, any active weather will be confined to the mountains. There will be some days where conditions will be quiet due to the placement of an upper level ridge of high pressure. Toward the end of the week, the upper level ridge will be centered across New Mexico. Due to this, the geopotential height will increase allowing for the temperatures to increase a few degrees from what they are forecast to be today. The temperatures on Friday and Saturday are expected to be at or very near the 105 degrees for El Paso and the Lower Valley. As of now, the NBM 75th through 95th percentiles are flirting with the high temperatures between 105 and 106 degrees on Friday and Saturday. Went with the 75th percentile due to lack of precipitation and cloud coverage on the Friday. Also, the 850mb temperatures at least with the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models suggest the temperatures between 93 to 95 degrees. With these temperatures at this level in the afternoon implies that the high temperatures at the surface can reach around 105 degrees. Should the solution trend this way, a Heat Advisory will be needed for El Paso, the Lower Vally and possibly the rest of the lowlands east of the Continental Divide for Friday and Saturday. The temperatures should cool slightly by the latter half of the weekend and into early next week as the ridge moves over the Plains. However, the upper level ridge will be re-established across New Mexico by the Middle to the end on next week, which will allow for the temperatures to increase to near 105 for the same period with limited chances for precipitation chances mainly in the lowlands. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. Isold to widely sct shwrs/tstms will favor the high terrain of the ern portion of the fcst area in the aftn. Low probability that activity will get in the vicinity of any terminal sites, but any direct hits could result in brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys. Winds will remain light and vrb with the exception of outflow winds generated by near and distant tstms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 126 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the forecast period, though elevated dry conditions will exist after today as high pressure is expected to strengthen over the CWA through early next week. RH values across the area will plummet into the mid teens by this weekend and into the lower teens by early next week. Winds are expected to remain light due to substances from the upper high pressure aloft and mainly influenced by terrain for their direction through the period. Vent rates will vary somewhat from good to excellent across the area through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 99 78 103 79 / 10 10 10 10 Sierra Blanca 91 70 95 69 / 40 30 30 10 Las Cruces 97 72 103 73 / 10 10 0 10 Alamogordo 95 70 100 72 / 20 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 71 55 75 55 / 50 10 20 0 Truth or Consequences 94 72 99 72 / 10 10 0 0 Silver City 88 64 93 66 / 20 10 10 0 Deming 96 70 101 71 / 20 10 0 10 Lordsburg 94 69 98 71 / 10 10 10 10 West El Paso Metro 96 76 101 78 / 10 10 10 10 Dell City 97 70 100 71 / 30 20 10 0 Fort Hancock 97 73 102 73 / 30 30 20 10 Loma Linda 89 70 93 71 / 30 20 20 10 Fabens 96 73 100 75 / 20 20 10 10 Santa Teresa 94 73 100 74 / 10 20 10 10 White Sands HQ 96 75 100 76 / 20 10 10 10 Jornada Range 95 71 100 72 / 10 10 0 0 Hatch 97 70 102 71 / 20 10 0 0 Columbus 95 73 100 74 / 10 10 0 10 Orogrande 94 70 98 72 / 20 10 10 10 Mayhill 82 59 87 59 / 60 10 20 0 Mescalero 84 59 88 58 / 50 10 20 0 Timberon 81 57 85 57 / 50 10 20 0 Winston 86 60 91 60 / 20 10 10 0 Hillsboro 92 67 98 68 / 20 10 0 0 Spaceport 94 69 100 69 / 10 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 87 58 92 59 / 30 10 10 0 Hurley 91 65 96 66 / 20 10 0 0 Cliff 98 65 103 66 / 20 10 10 0 Mule Creek 91 66 95 67 / 10 10 0 0 Faywood 90 67 95 68 / 20 10 10 0 Animas 94 68 98 70 / 20 10 10 10 Hachita 94 68 98 69 / 10 10 0 10 Antelope Wells 91 67 97 68 / 30 10 10 10 Cloverdale 86 64 92 65 / 30 20 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...40-Breitreiter