533
FXUS64 KEPZ 121126
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
526 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

It will be warmer and drier through Saturday with thunderstorm
chances largely limited to the Gila Region. Thunderstorm chances
will spread back across the area on Sunday, lasting through next
week. Temperatures will be near or a few degrees above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The UL high has centered itself over the Colorado River
Valley,just north of Las Vegas, NV, drawing relatively dry air
into NM and West TX. Dewpoints are in the M40s while SPC
Mesoanalysis shows PW values around 0.7". This drier air will
effectively shut-off storm chances for much of the area through
Saturday. The only area that may still see storms is the Gila
region with areas near the AZ border possibly seeing storms as
well on Saturday. Temperatures will warm too with the drier air,
so I elected to go with the NBM 75th percentile for highs through
Saturday since that tends to do well in these drier regimes.

By Sunday, the high is expected to migrate across the Four Corners
and into CO. This location will allow moisture to return for the
Borderland along with rain and storm chances. The GFS is more
aggressive with moisture recovery than the Euro. The NBM gradients
precip chances with the highest west and lowest east. Monday
continues the pattern of moisture influx, and the pattern pretty
much remains steady-state for the remainder of the forecast
period. The high will meander across CO and UT while a closed
low/inverted trough pinches off the deeper trough covering the
Eastern and Central CONUS. Moisture flow alone looks sufficient to
bring back areawide showers and thunderstorms, especially for the
mountains, but the wild card will be what that inverted
trough/closed low does. Models are struggling to determine its
path, which could both enhance or suppress convection depending on
its location. For now, however, it looks to at minimum not affect
us, but at most, increase shower and thunderstorm coverage.
Models are notoriously poor at handling cut-off lows, and so, the
forecast is likely to vary some. Temperatures will continue to run
near or above normal although if we get enhanced storm coverage,
highs would instead be likely to run below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the period with SKC-FEW100/250.
Winds are expected to top out between 10 and 15 knots this
afternoon with higher gusts, generally from the southeast
(110-140).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Drier air has pushed into the area, and that will remain the case
through Saturday. For Friday, min RH values will drop into the
mid-teens in the lowlands and the lower to middle 20s in the
mountains. Storm chances will largely be limited to portions of
the Gila. Winds are not expected to be particularly strong, which
will limit fire concerns otherwise. Speeds will top out around 10
MPH. Saturday will be similar to Friday. Venting for both days
will be very good to excellent.

Moisture begins to return on Sunday. The increase in moisture will
also reintroduce to storm chances to the entire area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 100  75 102  75 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            93  63  93  66 /   0   0  10  20
Las Cruces               98  70 100  71 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo               95  66  97  67 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               73  50  75  50 /  10   0  10   0
Truth or Consequences    96  70  97  70 /  10  10  10  10
Silver City              90  64  92  65 /  30  20  40  30
Deming                   98  68  99  69 /   0   0  10  20
Lordsburg                99  71 100  70 /  20  10  20  30
West El Paso Metro       98  74  99  75 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City                96  66  98  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             99  68 100  71 /   0   0  10  20
Loma Linda               90  66  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                   99  71 100  73 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             96  71  98  71 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           96  73  97  73 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            96  68  97  68 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                    99  68 100  69 /   0   0  10  10
Columbus                 98  71  99  72 /   0   0   0  20
Orogrande                95  68  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  85  55  86  55 /  10   0  10   0
Mescalero                84  55  86  55 /  10   0  10   0
Timberon                 82  53  84  54 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  88  58  90  58 /  20  20  30  20
Hillsboro                93  66  95  67 /  10  10  20  20
Spaceport                95  65  96  65 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             90  60  91  61 /  40  20  40  30
Hurley                   94  63  95  64 /  20  10  20  20
Cliff                   100  64 102  65 /  30  30  40  30
Mule Creek               94  66  95  69 /  40  30  50  40
Faywood                  93  66  93  66 /  10  10  20  20
Animas                   99  68 100  68 /  10  10  10  30
Hachita                  97  67  98  67 /   0  10   0  20
Antelope Wells           97  68  97  67 /  10  10  10  30
Cloverdale               93  66  93  65 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown