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Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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116 FXUS64 KEPZ 151147 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 547 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 High pressure aloft is nosing in over the Borderland from the west. This feature will warm and dry the area for some time to come. Yesterday`s trend of drying conditions will continue today, with very limited shower and storm development across the region. In fact, most of the region will be dry. In addition we will see the beginning of an extended string of 100 degree afternoon highs across much of the lowlands starting this afternoon. It appears the high will linger over the area through the weekend, and well into next week, keeping the regions temperatures well above normal, and limiting the amount of any monsoon rains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Yesterday our region sat under the weakness of a split high, with a minor trough passing to our north. That trough has now departed the area to the west, with high pressure aloft pushing in from the west. With the nose of the upper high directly over, we will see a drying NW flow aloft, pushing the monsoon plume SE over Far West Texas and SE New Mexico. Our western areas will become quite dry (dwpts in the 40s/PWATs ~0.80"), with warm temperatures aloft providing upper- level stabilization. Thus we expect the trend of fewer storms west of the Rio Grande to continue today. Some of the CAM models do show some very isolated showers/storms out west, but the probabilities will be low. The better moisture (dwpts near 50/PWATs >1.00"), although quite reduced, will be over the Far West Texas zones this afternoon. Thus, we expect most of today`s storms will be focused east of the Rio Grande, and over the TX zones. Temperatures will jump today by 3-5 degrees due to the building high pressure. Thus, much of the lowlands will see temperatures back around 100 degrees. Going forward we will find ourselves in a stagnant pattern with the upper high centering and anchoring over New Mexico. This will mean a fairly persistent day to day forecast, with conditions being mostly dry, and warm to hot. Temperatures will average about 5-10 degrees above normal, with lowlands seeing a long string of 100 degree afternoon highs. Lowland temperatures will linger in the 100-106F degree window, and hover close to Heat Advisory criteria of 105F for portions of the RG valley and El Paso proper. The NBM mean and 75th percentile struggle to get the 105 highs, and the prob of 105F is in the 0-30% range for most days, so for now, we will hold off on any advisories. However, if we do issue, it will likely be for Saturday, and again next week. For Friday, through much of next week, storm development will suffer at the hands of limited moisture and warm temperatures aloft. The flow pattern around the high will keep the deeper moisture focused south and west of our area, with only meager moisture trapped and recycled over our region. Thus, we could see a few orographic or airmass storms each day, primarily focused west and over mountains; but most areas will stay dry. Later in the week there appears to be some hope of increased rain/storm chances due to moisture finally circulating around the north end of the high and rotating back south into our region. On the temperature side of things...we expect pretty persistent highs/ lows due to the largely unchanging pattern. This means highs topping in the triple-digits each day. It does appear we see our best chances for the warmest weather by mid-week next week, as the upper high hovers just to our north with a strength of 600 DAM. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR conditions expected at all terminal through the forecast period. Skies mostly SKC through 18-20Z then FEW100-130 btwn 20-03Z. Winds generally light and favoring 130-190 AOB 10kts. AFT 18Z slight risk for ISO TSRA mainly E of ELP over Far West Texas. However, can`t totally rule out a stray shower over KEPZ late aftn/early eve. Elsewhere, storm risk is quite low and not expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 With high pressure building in from the west today, and then centering and lingering over New Mexico through the period, we will see a start warming and drying leading to potential for elevated fire weather conditions. However, due to a lack of string winds we do not see critical fire weather conditions developing. None the less, the region will trend warmer and much drier through the weekend, and well into next week. Temperatures will be well above normal, with afternoon highs averaging at least 5F and up to 10F degrees above average. Chances for rain and storms will be significantly diminished due to the flushing of the monsoon moisture plume to our SE, with NW flow aloft driving in much drier continental air. With the drier air in place, MinRH will drop into the mid-teens each afternoon across the lowlands. RH recoveries will average fair and only in to 40-60% range. Loose pressure gradients, associated with the upper high will keep our surface and low level winds generally light. The hot temps will help to keep mixing heights relatively high, with light to moderate SE transport winds, most afternoons, allowing for Very Good or better ventilation rates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 102 79 104 79 / 10 10 0 10 Sierra Blanca 92 69 95 69 / 40 20 10 10 Las Cruces 101 72 103 74 / 10 10 0 10 Alamogordo 98 71 101 71 / 10 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 75 55 77 55 / 20 10 20 0 Truth or Consequences 98 72 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 92 67 93 67 / 10 10 20 10 Deming 100 70 102 71 / 0 10 0 10 Lordsburg 98 70 100 72 / 10 10 10 10 West El Paso Metro 100 78 102 79 / 10 10 0 10 Dell City 99 71 101 71 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 99 73 102 74 / 30 20 10 10 Loma Linda 92 71 95 71 / 20 10 10 10 Fabens 100 74 101 76 / 10 10 0 10 Santa Teresa 98 74 100 75 / 10 10 10 10 White Sands HQ 99 76 101 76 / 10 10 0 10 Jornada Range 99 72 101 72 / 10 10 0 10 Hatch 101 70 103 71 / 10 10 0 10 Columbus 98 74 101 74 / 0 10 0 10 Orogrande 98 71 100 72 / 10 10 10 10 Mayhill 87 59 88 58 / 20 10 20 0 Mescalero 87 59 89 58 / 20 0 20 0 Timberon 84 57 86 57 / 20 10 20 0 Winston 90 61 92 61 / 10 10 10 10 Hillsboro 97 68 99 69 / 10 10 10 10 Spaceport 98 68 100 69 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 91 60 92 61 / 20 10 30 10 Hurley 95 66 97 66 / 10 10 10 10 Cliff 102 67 103 67 / 10 10 10 10 Mule Creek 95 68 96 69 / 10 0 10 10 Faywood 95 69 96 69 / 10 10 10 10 Animas 98 70 100 71 / 10 10 10 20 Hachita 98 69 99 70 / 10 10 10 10 Antelope Wells 96 68 98 69 / 10 10 10 10 Cloverdale 91 65 93 66 / 20 10 20 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird