116
FXUS64 KEPZ 151147
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
547 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

High pressure aloft is nosing in over the Borderland from the
west. This feature will warm and dry the area for some time to
come. Yesterday`s trend of drying conditions will continue today,
with very limited shower and storm development across the region.
In fact, most of the region will be dry. In addition we will see
the beginning of an extended string of 100 degree afternoon highs
across much of the lowlands starting this afternoon. It appears
the high will linger over the area through the weekend, and well
into next week, keeping the regions temperatures well above
normal, and limiting the amount of any monsoon rains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Yesterday our region sat under the weakness of a split high, with
a minor trough passing to our north. That trough has now departed
the area to the west, with high pressure aloft pushing in from
the west. With the nose of the upper high directly over, we will
see a drying NW flow aloft, pushing the monsoon plume SE over Far
West Texas and SE New Mexico. Our western areas will become quite
dry (dwpts in the 40s/PWATs ~0.80"), with warm temperatures aloft
providing upper- level stabilization. Thus we expect the trend of
fewer storms west of the Rio Grande to continue today. Some of the
CAM models do show some very isolated showers/storms out west,
but the probabilities will be low. The better moisture (dwpts near
50/PWATs >1.00"), although quite reduced, will be over the Far
West Texas zones this afternoon. Thus, we expect most of today`s
storms will be focused east of the Rio Grande, and over the TX
zones. Temperatures will jump today by 3-5 degrees due to the
building high pressure. Thus, much of the lowlands will see
temperatures back around 100 degrees.

Going forward we will find ourselves in a stagnant pattern with
the upper high centering and anchoring over New Mexico. This will
mean a fairly persistent day to day forecast, with conditions
being mostly dry, and warm to hot. Temperatures will average about
5-10 degrees above normal, with lowlands seeing a long string of
100 degree afternoon highs. Lowland temperatures will linger in
the 100-106F degree window, and hover close to Heat Advisory
criteria of 105F for portions of the RG valley and El Paso
proper. The NBM mean and 75th percentile struggle to get the 105
highs, and the prob of 105F is in the 0-30% range for most days,
so for now, we will hold off on any advisories. However, if we do
issue, it will likely be for Saturday, and again next week.

For Friday, through much of next week, storm development will
suffer at the hands of limited moisture and warm temperatures
aloft. The flow pattern around the high will keep the deeper
moisture focused south and west of our area, with only meager
moisture trapped and recycled over our region. Thus, we could see
a few orographic or airmass storms each day, primarily focused
west and over mountains; but most areas will stay dry. Later in
the week there appears to be some hope of increased rain/storm
chances due to moisture finally circulating around the north end
of the high and rotating back south into our region. On the
temperature side of things...we expect pretty persistent highs/
lows due to the largely unchanging pattern. This means highs
topping in the triple-digits each day. It does appear we see our
best chances for the warmest weather by mid-week next week, as the
upper high hovers just to our north with a strength of 600 DAM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

VFR conditions expected at all terminal through the forecast
period. Skies mostly SKC through 18-20Z then FEW100-130 btwn
20-03Z. Winds generally light and favoring 130-190 AOB 10kts.
AFT 18Z slight risk for ISO TSRA mainly E of ELP over Far West
Texas. However, can`t totally rule out a stray shower over KEPZ
late aftn/early eve. Elsewhere, storm risk is quite low and not
expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

With high pressure building in from the west today, and then
centering and lingering over New Mexico through the period, we
will see a start warming and drying leading to potential for
elevated fire weather conditions. However, due to a lack of string
winds we do not see critical fire weather conditions developing.
None the less, the region will trend warmer and much drier through
the weekend, and well into next week. Temperatures will be well
above normal, with afternoon highs averaging at least 5F and up to
10F degrees above average. Chances for rain and storms will be
significantly diminished due to the flushing of the monsoon
moisture plume to our SE, with NW flow aloft driving in much drier
continental air. With the drier air in place, MinRH will drop into
the mid-teens each afternoon across the lowlands. RH recoveries
will average fair and only in to 40-60% range. Loose pressure
gradients, associated with the upper high will keep our surface
and low level winds generally light. The hot temps will help to
keep mixing heights relatively high, with light to moderate SE
transport winds, most afternoons, allowing for Very Good or better
ventilation rates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 102  79 104  79 /  10  10   0  10
Sierra Blanca            92  69  95  69 /  40  20  10  10
Las Cruces              101  72 103  74 /  10  10   0  10
Alamogordo               98  71 101  71 /  10  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               75  55  77  55 /  20  10  20   0
Truth or Consequences    98  72 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              92  67  93  67 /  10  10  20  10
Deming                  100  70 102  71 /   0  10   0  10
Lordsburg                98  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
West El Paso Metro      100  78 102  79 /  10  10   0  10
Dell City                99  71 101  71 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             99  73 102  74 /  30  20  10  10
Loma Linda               92  71  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
Fabens                  100  74 101  76 /  10  10   0  10
Santa Teresa             98  74 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
White Sands HQ           99  76 101  76 /  10  10   0  10
Jornada Range            99  72 101  72 /  10  10   0  10
Hatch                   101  70 103  71 /  10  10   0  10
Columbus                 98  74 101  74 /   0  10   0  10
Orogrande                98  71 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
Mayhill                  87  59  88  58 /  20  10  20   0
Mescalero                87  59  89  58 /  20   0  20   0
Timberon                 84  57  86  57 /  20  10  20   0
Winston                  90  61  92  61 /  10  10  10  10
Hillsboro                97  68  99  69 /  10  10  10  10
Spaceport                98  68 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             91  60  92  61 /  20  10  30  10
Hurley                   95  66  97  66 /  10  10  10  10
Cliff                   102  67 103  67 /  10  10  10  10
Mule Creek               95  68  96  69 /  10   0  10  10
Faywood                  95  69  96  69 /  10  10  10  10
Animas                   98  70 100  71 /  10  10  10  20
Hachita                  98  69  99  70 /  10  10  10  10
Antelope Wells           96  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
Cloverdale               91  65  93  66 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird