697
FXUS64 KEPZ 151947
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
147 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Drier air will continue to filter in tomorrow, limiting shower and
thunderstorm potential. Temperatures will increase by a degree or
two areawide, with most lowland areas seeing highs near and above
100 degrees. Hot temperatures and mostly dry conditions will
persist through the weekend and into next week. Storm chances will
remain limited and will favor the western high terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Upper high in the Pacific has begun to nose its way into the Desert
Southwest, allowing for hot and dry weather to prevail. Models
have backed off on the high`s strength moving into Friday, with
probabilities for temperatures reaching and exceeding 105F falling
around and below 30 percent. The heat lingers into Saturday and
while probabilities are low that max temps will hit Heat Advisory
criteria, brief and localized instances of temps near and
slightly above 105F are possible Friday and Saturday, especially
in the El Paso metro.

High pressure will wobble around NM through the weekend and into
next week, the strength and position of which will work to limit
convection. As the high drifts eastward towards the Panhandles on
Saturday, moisture will snake up its western periphery, but the
majority of convection will favor AZ. The high retrogrades and
strengthens into next week, achieving a stout 599dam height as it
works to center itself over Los Alamos Co. With the high hanging out
in north-central NM, the monsoon plume will be pushed well to our
west in AZ, with little to no chance for storms. Model consensus
starts to deteriorate Wednesday, with the GFS allowing the high to
migrate back towards the Panhandles, with decreasing pressure
heights on tap for southern NM and far west TX. The ECMWF, however,
paints a less rosy picture, intensifying the high to 600dam and
bringing it south over Catron and Socorro counties. This would put
very hot temperatures on the horizon for the Borderland come
midweek into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

VMC through forecast period. Skies FEW-SCT110 with isolated TS
over west TX and south-central NM this afternoon, becoming clear
overnight. Surface winds 140-180 at 05-10 knots, variable AOB 05
knots Friday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected during the
forecast period, though elevated conditions will exist due to
increasing dryness. Relative humidity values will plummet below 15
percent for most lowland areas, with dry conditions increasing in
coverage through next week. Overnight recoveries will also trend
down, with widespread fair recoveries through the weekend and
some zones seeing as low as poor into next week. Weak flow aloft
will persist thanks to upper level high pressure, which will allow
for surface winds to remain light with directions generally
influenced by terrain. Vent rates will improve to good to
excellent towards the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  79 104  79 104 /  10   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            69  95  69  95 /  20  10  10  10
Las Cruces               72 103  74 103 /  10   0  10  10
Alamogordo               71 101  71 100 /  10   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               55  77  55  76 /  10  20   0  20
Truth or Consequences    72 100  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              67  93  67  93 /  10  20  10  20
Deming                   70 102  71 102 /  10   0  10   0
Lordsburg                70 100  72 100 /  10  10  10  20
West El Paso Metro       78 102  79 102 /  10   0  10   0
Dell City                71 101  71 100 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             73 102  74 102 /  20  10  10  10
Loma Linda               71  95  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
Fabens                   74 101  76 102 /  10   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             74 100  75 100 /  10  10  10  10
White Sands HQ           76 101  76 101 /  10   0  10  10
Jornada Range            72 101  72 100 /  10   0  10  10
Hatch                    70 103  71 103 /  10   0  10  10
Columbus                 74 101  74 101 /  10   0  10   0
Orogrande                71 100  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
Mayhill                  59  88  58  87 /  10  20   0  20
Mescalero                59  89  58  88 /   0  20   0  20
Timberon                 57  86  57  87 /  10  20   0  10
Winston                  61  92  61  92 /  10  10  10  10
Hillsboro                68  99  69  99 /  10  10  10  10
Spaceport                68 100  69 100 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             60  92  61  92 /  10  30  10  30
Hurley                   66  97  66  97 /  10  10  10  10
Cliff                    67 103  67 103 /  10  10  10  20
Mule Creek               68  96  69  96 /   0  10  10  20
Faywood                  69  96  69  96 /  10  10  10  10
Animas                   70 100  71 100 /  10  10  20  20
Hachita                  69  99  70 100 /  10  10  10  10
Antelope Wells           68  98  69  98 /  10  10  10  10
Cloverdale               65  93  66  92 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...40-Breitreiter