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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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327 FXUS64 KEPZ 171120 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 520 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Unseasonably warm conditions this week with rain chances limited to far western New Mexico and the mountain forests. Lowland high temperatures will reach the triple digit mark each afternoon into late August. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Center of strong high pressure aloft sits over eastern New Mexico this morning. Erosion of precipitable water across far west Texas and south-central New Mexico will accelerate this afternoon as surface southeast flow pushes the primary monsoonal plume of moisture westward into Arizona. Models show El Paso`s PW falling from 0.9" to around 0.7" today. This should be dry and stable enough to prevent any thunderstorm chances, with most of the I-25 and US-54 corridor staying dry and hot. Might see a few isolated showers over the Gila Wilderness and Continental Divide, but low coverage and low intensity. Temperatures will be unseasonably hot again today, 8-12 degrees above normal for mid- August. Lowland highs 100-105. A Heat Advisory is in effect for El Paso and the Lower Valley where the best chances of reaching 105 degrees exists. An extended period of dry and hot weather remains on tap this upcoming week. Stagnant upper high will remain latched to the eastern New Mexico/Texas Panhandle region, with very few day- to- day weather changes. Temperatures will consistently run 5-10 degrees above climate normals and rain chances will be slim to none, favoring the AZ/NM state line if at all. El Paso`s high temperature will hover around 102-105 each afternoon, and NBM probabilities show good confidence in that. Next shift in the weather pattern won`t be until late next week at least, when ensemble solutions show agreement in the ejection of a strong Pacific NW low pressure system, which looks strong enough to finally erode this blocking high and adjust our weather pattern. Still unsure what that adjustment would look like, but trending closer to normal for the end of August. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 VMC through forecast period under light southeast flow. Surface winds 090-130 at 05-10 knots today, with mostly clear skies becoming FEW-SCT110 after midday. CB limited to western NM, with no impacts for local terminals this evening. Dry overnight conditions with sustained SE flow 08-12 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Extended period of unseasonably hot and dry weather is expected this weekend and through much of next week. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above climate normals, with low rain chances mostly limited to the Gila National Forest and AZ/NM state line. This forecast does affect ERCs, with forecast charts showing rapid drying toward the end of next week. Fire danger becoming more Elevated again next week, with midday RH 20-30% and surface winds out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph. Smoke ventilation will be Good to Very Good with transport to the ENE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 104 79 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 95 69 94 68 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 102 72 100 72 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 100 69 99 69 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 76 53 75 53 / 20 0 10 0 Truth or Consequences 99 71 97 71 / 10 10 0 0 Silver City 93 66 92 66 / 40 20 10 0 Deming 101 71 99 71 / 10 10 0 0 Lordsburg 100 69 99 71 / 30 30 0 10 West El Paso Metro 102 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 101 69 100 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 102 73 101 72 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 94 70 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 102 75 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 100 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 101 75 99 74 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 100 70 98 70 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 102 70 101 69 / 10 10 0 0 Columbus 101 73 99 74 / 10 10 0 0 Orogrande 100 71 97 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 87 56 87 57 / 20 0 10 0 Mescalero 88 57 87 57 / 30 0 10 0 Timberon 87 55 85 55 / 10 0 0 0 Winston 91 59 89 60 / 30 10 0 0 Hillsboro 97 67 96 67 / 20 10 0 0 Spaceport 100 67 98 67 / 10 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 92 59 91 60 / 50 20 10 10 Hurley 96 66 95 66 / 30 20 0 0 Cliff 102 65 102 67 / 40 20 10 0 Mule Creek 95 65 94 67 / 40 30 10 10 Faywood 95 68 94 69 / 20 10 0 0 Animas 100 69 99 71 / 30 30 10 10 Hachita 100 68 98 69 / 10 20 0 10 Antelope Wells 99 67 97 69 / 20 20 10 10 Cloverdale 93 65 93 66 / 30 30 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for TXZ418-419-423-424. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt