338
FXUS64 KEPZ 071129
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
529 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Drier conditions and building high pressure will generate hot
near record high temperatures for today with values between 103
and 108 for the desert lowlands. Moisture will begin to return to
the region on Monday with scattered afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms expected each day next week. The increased
moisture and clouds will also result in lower temperatures closer
to seasonal averages for the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

It will be a hot dry day across southern New Mexico and far west
Texas today. Drier air has moved into the area to limit shower and
thunderstorm development with precipitable water values well below
an inch today. In addition, an extension of the dome of high
pressure on the west coast will build over the area, resulting in
stable conditions that will allow day time temperatures to soar to
near record levels across the area this afternoon. Afternoon high
temperatures are expected to be between 103 and 108 degrees this
afternoon. A heat advisory will be in effect today for most of
the lowlands of southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Chances
for rain are almost non-existent with only a few build ups of
clouds over the mountains expected in the afternoon.

Monday will see cooler temperatures are as the extension of the
high moves out of the local area. Also, moisture will begin to
move back into the region behind a cool front pushing in from the
east. Precipitable water values will be increasing back up to an
inch by Monday evening which may indicate a sufficient amount of
atmospheric moisture for shower and thunderstorm development for
areas mostly east of the Rio Grande and in the higher terrain.
Rain amounts will be light and spotty for most areas with higher
amounts possible in the mountains. The increased moisture and
cloudiness will moderate temperatures back down to near seasonal
averages of upper 90s to near 100 for the desert lowlands.

By Tuesday, the dominant high pressure dome will remain centered
just to our west over California and Nevada. Circulation around
the high will place New Mexico under a northerly flow aloft and at
the mid levels while a low level easterly to southeasterly flow
brings in additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Weak
embedded impulses in the northerly flow aloft will help enhance
shower and thunderstorm development over the region Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Mountain areas will see greater frequency
of storms and rain amounts which will likely impact sensitive
wildfire burn scars in the area. The lowlands will see scattered
rain amounts that will be generally on the light side. Strong wind
gusts up to 50 mph will be possible near thunderstorms.

Very little movement in the dome of high pressure is expected for
Wednesday and Thursday with the weather pattern basically
repeating for the area with scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms with locally heavier rain amounts
expected in the mountains. Temperatures are expected to remain
near seasonal averages both days which is still very warm.

The dome of high pressure will re-center over Colorado Friday and
Saturday, placing the local area under an easterly flow. the low
level flow will continue to tap Gulf of Mexico moisture and
transport it into the desert Southwest through next weekend.
Scattered afternoon and night time showers and thunderstorms will
be possible each day with a greater coverage and frequency
expected to shift more to areas west of the Rio Grande.
Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals through next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Dry air
and high pressure will maintain dry conditions with only a few
clouds in the afternoon. Mainly SKC expected outside of FEW CU
near 10kft in the afternoon and FEW250 from time to time.
Generally light winds under 12 knots expected, shifting W-NW
later in afternoon. Occasional gusts likely for most terminals
during the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Hot and dry conditions are expected today as high pressure builds
over the area. Minimum RH values are expected to be below 15
percent, however winds will remain below critical values. Moisture
will return to eastern areas on Monday with a few thunderstorms
possible mainly east of the Rio Grande. As moisture spreads
westward, afternoon and evening thunderstorm development will
become more widespread Tuesday through Thursday. Shower and
thunderstorm development will become more prevalent west of the
Rio Grande by Friday and next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 108  76 102  74 /   0   0  10  30
Sierra Blanca            99  68  95  65 /   0   0  30  40
Las Cruces              106  71 101  69 /   0   0  10  40
Alamogordo              102  65  97  63 /   0   0  30  30
Cloudcroft               80  49  71  48 /   0  10  60  50
Truth or Consequences   103  69  95  66 /   0   0  20  40
Silver City              97  65  95  63 /  10  10  30  40
Deming                  105  69 101  68 /  10  10  10  40
Lordsburg               103  70 103  68 /   0   0  20  30
West El Paso Metro      105  74  99  72 /   0   0  10  40
Dell City               104  69  95  67 /   0   0  20  30
Fort Hancock            107  71 102  70 /   0   0  20  40
Loma Linda               97  68  91  64 /   0   0  20  30
Fabens                  107  74 101  71 /   0   0  10  30
Santa Teresa            104  71  98  69 /   0   0  10  40
White Sands HQ          103  74  98  71 /   0   0  20  40
Jornada Range           103  66  98  65 /   0   0  20  40
Hatch                   106  66 100  65 /   0   0  20  40
Columbus                104  74 101  70 /   0  10  10  40
Orogrande               101  68  95  67 /   0   0  20  40
Mayhill                  92  54  77  54 /   0  10  60  40
Mescalero                90  54  80  52 /   0  10  60  40
Timberon                 89  54  81  52 /   0   0  50  40
Winston                  95  56  88  54 /   0   0  30  40
Hillsboro               101  66  94  63 /   0   0  30  50
Spaceport               102  64  96  62 /   0   0  30  40
Lake Roberts             97  60  94  57 /  10  10  40  40
Hurley                  100  65  98  63 /  10  10  30  30
Cliff                   106  64 106  63 /  10  10  30  30
Mule Creek               99  67  99  65 /  10  10  20  30
Faywood                  99  66  95  63 /  10  10  30  40
Animas                  103  70 103  68 /   0   0  20  30
Hachita                 102  70 101  65 /   0   0  20  40
Antelope Wells          102  69 101  66 /  10  10  20  40
Cloverdale               97  66  98  65 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 AM MDT Monday for TXZ418>424.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ407-
     409>411-417-427>429.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen