471
FXUS64 KEPZ 072025
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
225 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

After a break in the active weather conditions today, showers and
thunderstorm activities will return our area on Monday and
continue on throughout the week and into the weekend. The main
concerns with these storms will be strong winds and heavy
rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. A cold front will push
through on Monday bringing cooler temperatures than what is
expected today across the entire area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Currently, the skies are sunny, the winds at the surface are
generally light and the temperatures are on the very warm side.
Quiet conditions with hot temperatures are expected the rest of
this afternoon. For tonight, the winds will be light to possibly
low end breezy with clear skies. High pressure is going to be
overhead; thus, the low temperatures on Monday morning will be
above the normal for this time of the year. For Monday, high
pressure will weakened somewhat across our area as a trough digs
across the Plains. Also, as this trough sags south, it will send a
backdoor cold front across much of the area east of the
Continental Divide during the day on Monday. As the front moves
through, the relative humidity will increase. This will aide in a
few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon mainly across the
Otero and Hudspeth counties. Due to the passage of the cold front,
the high temperatures will be below the average across the
Sierra, Otero and Hudspeth counties. For Monday night, any
lingering showers and thunderstorms that will be present will
dissipate by the evening hours leaving the rest of the night
mainly quiet. The winds will be breezy to low end windy as a
strong boundary moves across the area.

For the rest of the period, active weather conditions will
gradually increase areawide mainly in the mountains at first then
across the lowlands. We will see daily chances for afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms as both advected and residual
moisture will be present. High pressure across the Pacific South
West will gradually move into the Rockies and then into the
Plains through the end of the period. As this ridge moves up into
the Rockies, an easterly wave will move along the southern
periphery of it. This will allow for an increase in showers and
thunderstorm activities across the Borderland. The main concerns
will be heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding, strong
gusty winds and possibly non severe hail. The high temperatures
will continue to be in the mid to upper 90s and lower 100s
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW-SCT250. The winds will be generally light
and variable through much of the period. However, the winds will
become breezy to low end windy 15 to 25 kts with gust up to 34
kts and out from the north northeast at KTCS after 09Z Monday.
They will also become breezy while out from the north northeast
after 15Z Monday across the rest of the terminals. There will be
no reduction in the VSBY across the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Dry air will be in place for the rest of this afternoon, which
will limit our precipitation chances. Tonight recovery will be
fair to very good. For Monday, some moisture will move back in
especially across east of the Rio Grande. Also, a backdoor cold
front will move in bringing cooler temperatures and a chance for
showers and thunderstorms across the zones 113 and 056. The 20ft
winds will be light to low end windy and the temperatures below
the normal mainly east of the Rio Grande and in the Black Range
mountains. For Tuesday, moisture will spread across the rest of
the area with a chance for showers and thunderstorms across much
of the region. For the rest of the period, active weather will
continue as moisture lingers across the area. With that being
said, there will be no fire weather concerns for much of the
period except on Monday along the Divide.

The min RHs on Monday will be below 10% along and west of the
Divide and vice versa elsewhere. The min RHs on Tuesday will
increase 5 to 10% across the entire zones. The ventilation rates
will be poor to excellent on Monday then poor to very good on
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76 101  74  98 /   0   0  20  30
Sierra Blanca            68  93  65  90 /   0  10  30  40
Las Cruces               72 100  70  96 /   0  10  30  30
Alamogordo               67  95  64  93 /   0  20  30  40
Cloudcroft               50  70  47  69 /   0  40  40  80
Truth or Consequences    70  93  66  92 /   0  10  30  50
Silver City              66  95  62  88 /  10  20  30  70
Deming                   70 100  68  95 /  10  10  40  30
Lordsburg                71 103  69  96 /   0  10  30  50
West El Paso Metro       75  98  71  95 /   0   0  20  30
Dell City                69  94  67  92 /   0  20  20  30
Fort Hancock             72 100  70  97 /   0  10  20  40
Loma Linda               69  89  64  88 /   0  10  20  40
Fabens                   73  99  71  97 /   0   0  20  30
Santa Teresa             71  97  70  93 /   0   0  30  30
White Sands HQ           73  95  70  93 /   0  10  30  50
Jornada Range            67  96  65  93 /   0  10  30  50
Hatch                    67  99  65  95 /   0  10  30  50
Columbus                 76 100  70  95 /  10   0  40  20
Orogrande                68  92  66  92 /   0  10  30  50
Mayhill                  54  74  53  78 /   0  50  40  70
Mescalero                54  79  52  80 /   0  40  30  70
Timberon                 54  79  51  77 /   0  30  30  70
Winston                  59  87  55  85 /   0  20  30  70
Hillsboro                67  92  62  89 /  10  20  40  70
Spaceport                64  95  62  92 /   0  10  30  50
Lake Roberts             60  94  57  88 /  10  20  40  80
Hurley                   66  96  62  90 /  10  10  30  60
Cliff                    65 105  64  98 /   0  10  30  70
Mule Creek               68  98  65  93 /  10  10  20  60
Faywood                  67  94  63  89 /  10  10  40  60
Animas                   71 103  67  98 /   0  10  30  50
Hachita                  71 101  66  95 /   0  10  30  30
Antelope Wells           70 101  66  96 /  10  10  40  40
Cloverdale               67  97  65  93 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for TXZ418>424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ407-409>411-417-
     427>429.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira