890
FXUS64 KEPZ 081117
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
517 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 206 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A frontal boundary will bring gusty east winds into the region
today. Winds will be strongest this evening along the west slopes
of local mountains. The front will bring a slightly cooler air
mass to the area with afternoon temperatures expected to be near
seasonal normals. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and tonight, with a potential for strong wind gusts and
brief periods of moderate rain. Shower and thunderstorm
development will be more frequent and widespread Tuesday through
Thursday with higher rain amounts in the mountains with a
potential for localized flooding. Rain chances with afternoon and
night time thunderstorms will continue through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

After a dry hot day yesterday, a frontal boundary pushing in from
the east will bring gusty easterly winds and cooler temperatures
to the area today. While circulation around the west coast high
will maintain a northerly flow aloft over New Mexico, the surface
frontal boundary will bring a strong easterly push of lower level
winds to the area. The winds will strengthen in the evening hours
tonight. Winds will be strongest along west slopes of local
mountains, especially in El Paso and Hudspeth counties where gusts
up to 40 mph may be possible. Winds will gradually diminish in
the early morning hours of Tuesday.

In addition to the winds, moisture will flow back into the area,
to help fuel isolated thunderstorm development later this
afternoon and evening. Moisture will still be quite limited, so
the storms may be brief with limited rainfall potential.
Thunderstorm outflow winds may be strong with gusts up to 50 mph
in some areas. The slightly cooler air mass behind the front will
also moderate our temperatures for today with values closer to
seasonal averages with upper 90s to lower 100s for the lowland
deserts. There will also be some hazy smoke dropping down over the
region today as wildfires in Utah and other western states
continue to burn and smoke drifts southward over the state.

On Tuesday the area will remain under the northerly flow aloft
from circulation coming down the front side of the west coast
high. Weak embedded impulses in the flow will help enhance
thunderstorm development in the afternoon and evening. chances for
rain will increase across the area with the additional moisture
and instability coming in from the low level easterly flow from
the Gulf of Mexico. The greatest chance for rain will be in the
mountain zones of the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains. With
the increased chances for rain and flooding over sensitive burn
scars in the Sac Mountains and flash flood watch will be in effect
for Tuesday afternoon and evening. The weather pattern will remain
similar for Wednesday and Thursday with greater chances for rain
in the mountains and a more scattered distribution in the
lowlands. Temperatures will remain within a few degrees of
seasonal averages with upper 90s to lower 100s for the lowlands.

For Friday and next weekend the West Coast High will re-center
over Colorado, placing the local area under a more easterly flow
pattern aloft. This pattern will continue the summertime pattern
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms with a focus of rain
amounts being more to the west of the Rio Grande than east. The
low level moisture tap from the Gulf of Mexico will remain in
place through next weekend, keeping thunderstorms in the forecast
each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 508 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A frontal boundary will move across the region during the morning
hours today. This front has shifted winds from the east at KELP
and KLRU and will soon at KDMN and KTCS. Easterly winds will get
stronger through the afternoon into the evening hours today,
before slowing back down later tonight. There will be minimal
ceilings across most of the area today, except in the Sac Mtns
where a low stratus deck has formed near KSRR. There may be a few
thunderstorms, east of the Rio Grande in the afternoon, but right
now coverage doesn`t look that great. Better thunderstorm chances
come on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A frontal boundary will push in from the east today, bringing
gusty east winds and and increase in moisture to the region.
Easterly winds will be strongest this evening along west slopes of
area mountains. The increase in moisture will raise relative
humidity values across the area with decent overnight recoveries.
Isolated thunderstorms with light spotty rainfall are possible
today. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase Tuesday through
Thursday area wide with the mountain areas having the highest
rain amounts. Sensitive burn scars in the Sacramento Mountains
will be impacted by the increase threat of rain with a potential
for flash flooding this week. Ventillation rates will improve to
very good on Tuesday and the remainder of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 101  74  98  76 /  10  20  20  50
Sierra Blanca            93  65  90  67 /  20  20  40  50
Las Cruces              100  70  97  71 /  20  20  30  60
Alamogordo               95  64  92  65 /  10  20  40  40
Cloudcroft               70  48  69  49 /  40  20  70  50
Truth or Consequences    93  66  92  69 /  20  20  40  50
Silver City              95  63  87  63 /  20  20  70  60
Deming                  100  69  95  69 /  20  20  30  60
Lordsburg               103  69  97  69 /  10  20  40  60
West El Paso Metro       98  72  95  75 /  10  20  20  60
Dell City                94  66  92  69 /  10  20  30  30
Fort Hancock            100  70  97  72 /  10  20  40  60
Loma Linda               89  64  88  67 /  10  20  40  50
Fabens                   99  71  96  74 /  10  20  20  50
Santa Teresa             97  70  94  71 /  10  20  20  60
White Sands HQ           95  71  93  72 /  20  20  40  60
Jornada Range            96  66  93  67 /  20  20  40  60
Hatch                    99  66  95  67 /  20  20  40  60
Columbus                100  71  95  72 /  20  20  20  60
Orogrande                92  66  92  68 /  10  20  40  50
Mayhill                  74  52  78  54 /  40  20  70  40
Mescalero                79  52  80  54 /  40  20  70  50
Timberon                 79  51  77  53 /  30  20  60  50
Winston                  87  55  85  56 /  20  20  70  50
Hillsboro                92  63  89  64 /  20  20  60  70
Spaceport                95  62  92  63 /  20  20  50  50
Lake Roberts             94  58  87  59 /  20  20  70  60
Hurley                   96  63  91  63 /  20  20  60  50
Cliff                   105  64  98  63 /  10  20  60  50
Mule Creek               98  66  92  66 /  10  10  60  50
Faywood                  94  63  89  65 /  20  20  60  60
Animas                  103  68  98  69 /  20  20  40  60
Hachita                 101  66  95  67 /  20  20  30  60
Antelope Wells          101  67  95  67 /  20  20  40  70
Cloverdale               97  66  92  67 /  20  20  40  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for TXZ418>424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ407-
     409>411-417-427>429.

     Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for
     NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...04