Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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150 FXUS64 KEPZ 061130 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 530 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 217 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The summertime pattern of afternoon and nighttime showers and thunderstorms will continue through next week. Storms will produce periods of hail, strong winds, and moderate to heavy rainfall with localized flooding. Temperatures most on most days will be near or slightly above normal, except for Sunday where temperatures will be much warmer under mostly dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Standard summertime weather pattern of warm temperatures with afternoon and nighttime showers and thunderstorms will continue most days through next week. Moisture availability for storm development will ebb and flow, depending on the location of the dominate high pressure circulation in the region. For today, northwesterly circulation around high pressure centered on the west coast will bring in drier continental type air into New Mexico reducing chances for thunderstorms in the northwestern and north central parts of the state. However southern New Mexico and far west Texas remain in a more moist environment, sustained by a moist low level east to southeast flow bringing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitable water values will range between 1.1 and 1.2 inches which is sufficient for storm development with afternoon heating. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across area and will continue into the evening hours. Some of the storms will become strong to near severe, capable of producing periods of larger hail, strong winds to 50 mph, and moderate to heavy rainfall. Some localized flooding near heavy rainfall is possible. Thunderstorms are possible near the Sacramento burn scars again today but, exact location remains uncertain. With the added moisture and cloudiness this afternoon, day time high temperatures will peak near seasonal averages which means in the upper 90s to near 100 for lowland desert locations. The weather pattern for Sunday will be hotter and drier as a northwesterly circulation around the west coast high flushes out the moisture from the local area and reduces chances for thunderstorms. The strengthened high aloft and the drier conditions will allow afternoon temperatures will soar into the 100s across the lowlands. Temperature values on Sunday afternoon are expected to reach heat advisory criteria with values near 105 degrees possible for many lowland desert locations. With the increased heat, some isolated storms remain possible, despite the reduced moisture. Cooler temperatures and increased chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur on Monday as a moist low level easterly flow pushes back into far west Texas and southern New Mexico. Precipitable water values will rise back above an inch which is indicative of a more favorable environment for thunderstorm development with afternoon heating. Increased cloudiness from the added moisture will limit afternoon temperatures closer to seasonal normals of upper 90s to near 100 for the lowlands. For Tuesday through Friday of next week, the west coast high will re-center over the four corners area putting southern New Mexico and far west Texas under a deeper easterly and southeasterly flow. This will help maintain moisture levels to support afternoon and night time showers and thunderstorms through the week. At this time the circulation around the now Four Corners high does not appear to tap any dry continental airmass to reduce rain chances. The bulk of our moisture to fuel thunderstorms will be coming from the Gulf of Mexico for all of next week. Precipitable water values will range from 1.0 to 1.2 inches which is sufficient for storm development but should limit widespread heavy rain events. Localized heavy rain from stronger storms may still occur with minor flooding along drainages and arroyos possible. Burn scars will remain sensitive to any type of rainfall with flooding likely. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 It will be another active day for showers and thunderstorms. Storms will develop over northern portions and high elevations in the early afternoon, including for KTCS. Storms will move southward and reforming toward KDMN and KLRU between 20Z and 02Z and will affect KELP 21Z to 03Z before dissipating for the evening. Ceilings will be minimal before 19Z and after 03Z. During the thunderstorm period there will mid to high level ceilings from convective clouds and spreading anvils. Brief MVFR conditions in moderate to heavy rainfall from any storms that occur near the TAF sites, otherwise VFR conditions expected. Strong thunderstorm outflow winds will bring sudden wind shifts to the area TAF sites in the afternoon, otherwise winds will be mainly from the east during the day and will become northwesterly in the evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 217 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A standard summertime pattern of afternoon and nighttime showers and thunderstorms will continue through next week. Mountain areas will continue to see regular thunderstorm events developing on the higher ridgelines by mid day, spreading to other areas in the afternoon. The lowlands will continue to get a more scattered distribution of rain each day. Sunday will be the driest and warmest day with shower and thunderstorm activity limited to isolated areas of the mountains. Thunderstorms occurring over sensitive burn scars with excessive rainfall and flooding will be a daily occurrence through the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 99 78 107 76 / 50 40 10 10 Sierra Blanca 91 69 100 68 / 40 40 10 10 Las Cruces 98 72 104 71 / 50 40 10 10 Alamogordo 94 69 102 64 / 40 20 10 10 Cloudcroft 71 54 78 50 / 70 30 10 10 Truth or Consequences 97 68 104 69 / 50 30 10 10 Silver City 89 67 96 65 / 40 20 10 20 Deming 98 67 104 69 / 40 30 10 20 Lordsburg 97 68 102 70 / 30 20 10 10 West El Paso Metro 97 77 105 74 / 50 40 10 10 Dell City 94 69 105 69 / 30 20 10 0 Fort Hancock 99 73 106 71 / 50 40 10 10 Loma Linda 89 69 95 68 / 50 40 10 10 Fabens 99 75 106 73 / 50 40 10 10 Santa Teresa 95 72 104 70 / 50 40 10 10 White Sands HQ 95 75 104 73 / 50 40 10 10 Jornada Range 97 64 103 66 / 50 40 10 10 Hatch 97 67 104 66 / 50 30 10 20 Columbus 99 72 104 73 / 40 40 10 20 Orogrande 94 70 99 67 / 50 30 10 10 Mayhill 81 61 90 55 / 70 30 20 10 Mescalero 82 60 88 55 / 60 20 10 10 Timberon 80 56 86 54 / 70 30 20 10 Winston 89 57 94 56 / 50 20 10 10 Hillsboro 94 64 102 66 / 60 30 10 20 Spaceport 97 63 103 63 / 50 30 10 10 Lake Roberts 90 58 96 59 / 40 20 10 20 Hurley 93 63 98 65 / 40 20 10 10 Cliff 98 63 101 64 / 40 20 10 10 Mule Creek 94 61 98 66 / 30 20 10 10 Faywood 92 63 98 65 / 50 30 10 20 Animas 98 68 103 69 / 30 30 20 20 Hachita 96 66 103 70 / 30 30 10 20 Antelope Wells 96 67 102 68 / 30 30 20 30 Cloverdale 92 64 96 66 / 40 30 20 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for TXZ418>424. NM...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ407- 409>411-417-427>429. Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ415- 416. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen