403
FXUS64 KEPZ 161207
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
607 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 431 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Upper high over New Mexico will keep much of the area in drier air
again today. There will still be a chance of thunderstorms, mainly
west of the Continental Divide. The upper high begins moving
westward after Tuesday, near the Four Corners Wednesday. This
allow a few thunderstorms to move back in over much of the area.
Then Thursday into the weekend, the moisture rapidly returns and
by the weekend we can expect widespread thunderstorms and
possibility of flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Today and Wednesday...WV imagery shows upper high still mainly
over New Mexico. Layered moisture surrounding most of the high
circulation except the eastern quadrant, where the dry slot is
still in place over most of the CWA. Doesn`t look like much change
for today. NSSL Synthetic satellite imagery shows layered
moisture staying mostly where it is now; hence I think chances of
thunderstorms are best west of the Cont Divide. I did trim back
NBM POPs somewhat for this afternoon to reflect that. Big changes
are coming as the upper high begins slowly drifting west. For
Wednesday the upper high is over the Four Corners. This does allow
some moisture aloft to begin moving in, while still offering some
capping at mid-levels. POPs should begin increasing some area
wide.

Thursday into the weekend...upper high moves over Arizona
Thursday and the upper over Nevada for the weekend. This will give
us a stronger northerly flow aloft. Expect thunderstorms into the
scattered to numerous coverage for all areas through this period.
Typically the storms begin in the mountains early afternoon and
spread southward over the lowlands, often with strong outflow. GFS
PWs increase to 1.0 to 1.3 inches during this period, possibly
even higher on Saturday before decreasing some on Sunday. The
main threat throughout this period will be flooding. Severe winds
also a large threat with large hail likely a secondary threat.

Monday and Tuesday...upper high slides down closer to southern
California, keeping northerly flow over the CWA. PWs lower some,
but for the most part these days likely a continuation from the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Mainly VFR conditions with FEW100 SCT250. Developing after
18Z...isolated BKN060CB -TSRA, mainly west of Cont Divide. Winds
mainly east/southeast 8-12 knots. Perhaps a slight chance for a
thunderstorm at KDMN/KTCS but did not mention in TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 431 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

We are in a stretch of dry weather, likely to continue most zones
again today. However we begin transitioning Wednesday and
especially toward the weekend, to a much wetter overall pattern.
Thunderstorm coverage should increase dramatically by Thursday and
Friday and flooding will become a major threat all areas. Strong
winds also a real threat.

Min RHs: Lowlands 12-18% today increasing to 20-30% Wednesday into
the weekend. Mountains 15-25% today increasing to 35-50% Wednesday
into the weekend. Vent rates very good-excellent today and
Wednesday, becoming fair-good by Friday into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 103  78 102  77 /  10  10  20  30
Sierra Blanca            94  70  95  66 /  10  10  20  20
Las Cruces              103  73 102  72 /  10  10  30  50
Alamogordo              100  70  98  67 /  10  10  30  40
Cloudcroft               83  51  80  49 /  10  10  50  50
Truth or Consequences   101  73  99  69 /  10  20  40  70
Silver City              93  65  95  62 /  30  30  60  70
Deming                  102  70 101  71 /  20  20  30  60
Lordsburg                99  70 101  71 /  40  40  50  70
West El Paso Metro      101  77 101  76 /  10  10  20  40
Dell City               100  71 100  70 /   0   0  20  20
Fort Hancock            101  73 102  71 /  10  10  20  30
Loma Linda               94  70  94  68 /   0  10  30  30
Fabens                  101  75 102  74 /   0  10  20  30
Santa Teresa            100  72 100  72 /  10  10  20  50
White Sands HQ          100  76 100  73 /  10  10  40  50
Jornada Range           101  71 100  69 /  10  10  40  60
Hatch                   103  71 102  70 /  10  10  40  60
Columbus                101  72 101  74 /  10  20  30  60
Orogrande                98  71  97  69 /  10  10  30  40
Mayhill                  92  57  87  55 /  10  10  50  40
Mescalero                92  57  88  55 /  10  10  50  50
Timberon                 89  55  86  54 /  10  10  50  40
Winston                  94  60  92  57 /  30  20  60  70
Hillsboro                98  70  97  65 /  20  20  50  80
Spaceport               101  69  99  66 /  10  10  40  60
Lake Roberts             95  60  94  59 /  40  30  60  70
Hurley                   97  64  97  64 /  30  30  50  60
Cliff                   100  67  99  67 /  30  40  60  70
Mule Creek               96  65  97  64 /  40  40  60  70
Faywood                  97  68  96  66 /  30  30  50  70
Animas                   99  69 101  70 /  40  40  50  70
Hachita                  99  68 100  70 /  40  40  30  60
Antelope Wells           96  67  98  68 /  40  40  50  70
Cloverdale               90  64  93  66 /  40  50  50  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner