567
FXUS64 KEPZ 162329
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
529 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Temperatures will remain above normal for one more day before
starting to drop back toward average by the end of the week as
moisture increases over the Borderland. Rain coverage will
increase areawide by Friday with locally heavy rain a threat,
especially over mountain areas. Rain chances will continue into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Upper high currently over northern NM will slowly retrograde west
and become much more amplified over the Great Basin through the
remainder of the week. This will lead to a similar setup to what
we had around last week with northerly flow sending down impulses
daily, but there will be a little more well-defined trough over
the Midwest that will extend toward the Borderland. One other
difference between last week and this one in the northerly flow is
that last time, when looking at WV, there was little to no
moisture in the mid and high levels, it was modest low level
moisture we were working with. This time, looking up into SE UT,
CO and onto the High Plains, there is much more at least mid level
moisture that will move down as the flow turns more northerly.

Late this afternoon and this evening, most if not all thunderstorm
activity will remain west of the Divide as there is some surface
convergence that will be moving westward. Still just isolated to
scattered coverage. Shear is marginal out west for a couple
stronger storms with strong wind gusts and blowing dust the
likely impacts.

For Wed, the upper high starts shifting north and west and becoming
centered closer to the Four Corners. Upper ridge axis will be
extending through CWA and will likely limit thunderstorm
development but a low/mid level SE flow should be enough for a few
storms to develop off the mountains and then possibly push
outflows and some storms onto the lowlands, but confidence in this
not very high with that ridge axis in place. Good consensus among
the CAMs that development will be late and mainly north of the
area through the afternoon. Wednesday will also likely be the last
day with temperatures reaching 100+ degrees for some lowland
areas.

As ridge gets further west, moisture increases across the area
with PW`s getting into the 1.1-1.25" range by Thu. This will help
storms move off into the lowlands after starting in the mountains
each afternoon Thu-Sun. Looking at forecast soundings, mean wind
speeds under 10KTS and some areas showing favorable back-
building/training wind profiles similar to last week at times,
especially Thu/Fri. Temperatures will run near normal in the 90s
for most areas, there will be the potential for some areas to
remain in the 80s if remnant cloud cover is slow to dissipate
during the day. This looks most likely going into the weekend as
PW`s increase into the 1.3-1.5" range.

Early next week some drier air entrains into the upper high and
pushes into the area lowering the PW`s again. Upper low/trough
still lingers over the Midwest extending down toward the area, so
keeping pops around, but think the coverage should start to taper
down.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Isolated
thunderstorms are ongoing west of KDMN and in the Tularosa Basin
but should dissipate around sunset with minimal impacts at the
terminals. FEW-SCT110-150 linger overnight with activity
redeveloping late in the period around KTCS. Other than occasional
gusts to start the period, winds AOB 8kts from SE expected
through AM. Gusts into upper teens develop tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Moisture will be increasing across the region over the next few
days and linger into next week. Daily thunderstorms will occur
with locally heavy rains and gusty winds the main threats. RH`s
will be going up into the 20s lowlands and 30s-40s mountains.
Winds will generally be 5-15 mph with vent rates very good to
excellent Wednesday but starting to fall into the fair to low end
very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  78 102  77  98 /   0  20  20  30
Sierra Blanca            72  95  66  90 /  10  20  20  30
Las Cruces               72 101  72  97 /  10  20  30  40
Alamogordo               70  98  67  93 /   0  50  50  40
Cloudcroft               51  75  51  69 /  10  50  50  80
Truth or Consequences    73  99  69  94 /  10  60  60  60
Silver City              66  95  62  90 /  20  50  50  80
Deming                   72 101  71  98 /  10  20  30  30
Lordsburg                70 101  71  98 /  40  50  50  60
West El Paso Metro       76 101  76  97 /   0  20  20  30
Dell City                70 100  70  94 /   0  10  10  30
Fort Hancock             71 102  71  98 /   0  20  20  30
Loma Linda               69  94  68  89 /   0  20  20  30
Fabens                   75 102  74  97 /   0  20  20  20
Santa Teresa             70 100  72  95 /  10  20  20  30
White Sands HQ           72 100  70  95 /  10  30  30  40
Jornada Range            69 100  67  95 /   0  40  40  40
Hatch                    72 102  70  98 /  10  60  60  40
Columbus                 72 101  74 100 /  10  20  30  30
Orogrande                74  97  69  92 /   0  30  30  50
Mayhill                  56  87  55  79 /  10  40  40  80
Mescalero                56  87  55  81 /  10  50  50  80
Timberon                 53  85  54  78 /  10  40  40  70
Winston                  60  92  57  85 /  20  50  50  80
Hillsboro                70  97  65  92 /  20  60  60  70
Spaceport                69 100  66  94 /  10  60  60  50
Lake Roberts             55  93  59  86 /  20  60  60  80
Hurley                   66  97  64  92 /  20  60  60  60
Cliff                    63 100  64  97 /  40  60  60  80
Mule Creek               59  97  61  93 /  40  60  60  80
Faywood                  69  96  66  92 /  20  60  60  60
Animas                   70 101  70  99 /  40  40  40  40
Hachita                  72 101  70  97 /  20  20  30  40
Antelope Wells           67  98  68  96 /  20  20  20  40
Cloverdale               65  93  66  92 /  50  40  40  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson