937
FXUS64 KEPZ 130550
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1150 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A period of less active weather will occur over the next few days.
Dry conditions will limit thunderstorm development to brief
isolated storms over the higher mountains in the afternoon and
early evening. Day time temperatures will remain near seasonal
averages through the early part of next week. Rain chances will
begin to gradually increase by late Sunday out west and will
increase to region wide by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

It will be mostly dry the next few days with fewer showers and
thunderstorms occurring.  A shift in the west coast high to the
Four Corners region has shifted our flow pattern aloft to be from
the east. This has brought drier and more stable continental type
air mass to the region. Showers and thunderstorms will struggle to
develop the drier environment today and Saturday. A few brief
isolated storms are still possible over the higher mountains of
the Gila Region which is closer to a deeper pool of moisture,
however rain amounts from those storms will be light and spotty at
best. For the rest of the area mostly clear skies with a steady
easterly wind and near seasonal temperatures is expected through
Saturday.

On Sunday the high will continue to be largely centered over the
Four Corners region but will diminish some in intensity. This will
allow a weak inverted trough to form and drift closer the region
this will allow for a modest increase in moisture to the area that
will slightly increase chances for thunderstorm development in
the Gila Region and Bootheel of New Mexico. Storms that occur will
still be brief and produce mostly gusty winds and short periods
of light to moderate rainfall. Monday will continue that trend
with slightly more moisture with slightly more thunderstorm
activity again mainly confined to areas west of the Continental
Divide and mountain areas.

Next Tuesday through Thursday will see a deeper plume of moisture
move into the area with a transition to a more active weather
pattern of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall possible. Thunderstorm
development will be enhanced by the weak inverted trough that will
be lingering in the area as well as a frontal boundary pushing
from the plains for added lift. With the airmass moistened back
up, afternoon and night time showers and thunderstorms will remain
in the long term forecast period through to next weekend. Overall
temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal with a
lowland deserts seeing upper 90s to low 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF
sites with SKC and FEW250. The winds will be generally light and
variable through the 17Z across most of the terminals. However, the
winds may become low end breezy around 11011G18KTS between 18 and
00Z Sunday. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the
runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A drier more stable air mass has moved into the region for the
next few days. Shower and thunderstorm development will be very
limited to brief isolated storms in the higher terrain of the Gila
Region the next couple of days. The drier air will result in
minimum RH values near 15 percent across the lowlands with 20 to
30 percent in the mountains. Residual moisture in the area will
allow for decent overnight recoveries on RH. Winds will be
predominately from the east and southeast during the day with
sustained wind speeds less than 20 mph. Winds overnight will
diminish to light variable and will be influenced by terrain
induced drainage winds. Day time temperatures will remain close to
seasonal averages the next few days. Vent rates will be poor in
the morning hours but will improve to good in the afternoon.

For the long term outlook, moisture will gradually return to the
area next week. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase
somewhat for the Gila Region Sunday and Monday and then will
become more frequent and widespread for next Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  74 101  76 100 /   0   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            63  92  66  91 /   0  10  10  10
Las Cruces               69  99  71 100 /   0   0  10   0
Alamogordo               65  96  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               50  76  50  76 /   0  10   0  10
Truth or Consequences    68  96  70  97 /  10   0   0  10
Silver City              63  91  66  92 /  20  30  20  50
Deming                   67  98  68 100 /   0  10  10   0
Lordsburg                69  99  69 100 /  10  20  20  40
West El Paso Metro       74  98  75  98 /   0   0  10   0
Dell City                66  96  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             68  99  71  98 /   0   0  10  10
Loma Linda               66  90  66  91 /   0   0  10  10
Fabens                   71  99  72  98 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             70  96  71  96 /   0   0  10   0
White Sands HQ           72  96  73  97 /   0   0  10   0
Jornada Range            67  97  68  97 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    68  99  69 100 /   0   0  10  10
Columbus                 71  97  71  99 /   0  10  10   0
Orogrande                67  95  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  55  84  55  86 /   0  10   0  10
Mescalero                55  86  56  87 /   0  10   0  20
Timberon                 53  84  53  84 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                  57  89  58  91 /  20  20  20  40
Hillsboro                66  94  67  95 /  10  20  20  30
Spaceport                64  96  66  97 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             59  92  61  93 /  20  30  30  50
Hurley                   63  94  64  95 /  10  20  10  30
Cliff                    63 101  65 103 /  30  30  30  50
Mule Creek               66  95  69  96 /  30  40  40  60
Faywood                  65  93  66  95 /  10  20  20  30
Animas                   67  99  68 100 /  10  20  30  40
Hachita                  66  97  66  99 /  10  10  20  20
Antelope Wells           67  97  67  97 /  10  20  30  30
Cloverdale               66  92  64  92 /  20  30  40  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice