884
FXUS64 KEPZ 130945
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
345 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

We will be very warm and mostly dry today and Sunday with just a
slight chance for rain west of the Rio Grande. For next week, we
will see a slow increase in moisture and rain chances so that by
the middle of next week, we will see a good chance for rain across
the area. High temperatures this weekend into the first of next
week, will run a little above average, but by the end of the
coming week, our high temperatures will run a few degrees below
average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The clockwise circulation around the upper level high pressure
centered near the Four Corners region will continue to pull in
drier air. This drier air will limit our afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Precipitable water values (PW`s) today through
Monday will be below 1 inch across much of the area. Whenever PW`s
are below an inch it is more difficult to get thunderstorm going.
We will be mainly dry today through Monday with just a slight
chance for rain west of the Rio Grande each day. With the ridge
aloft our high temperatures will run near or just a little above
average through Monday.

As we head into the middle of next week, the upper level ridge
will weaken just a little and it will drift to the west just a
bit. This drift back west, will allow some moisture at the surface
to slowly slip back into the region. Consequently we will see rain
chances spread across the whole area and slowly increase. We will
see good chances for rain both Wednesday and Thursday. For both of
those days, it will be mainly the increased moisture that bumps
our rain chances. At this time I don`t see anything that would
trigger thunderstorms, except orographic lift and outflow
boundaries moving out from earlier thunderstorms. With the
increased moisture and better rain chances, we will see our high
temperatures run a few degrees below average for the middle part
of next week. For the end of next week, we will see much of the
same with the upper level ridge centered near Las Vegas and a
continued chance for thunderstorms and high temperatures running a
few degrees below average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF
sites with SKC and FEW250. The winds will be generally light and
variable through the 17Z across most of the terminals. However, the
winds may become low end breezy around 11011G18KTS between 18 and
00Z Sunday. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the
runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Drier air has pushed into the region and that will really limit
our afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Min RH`s today and Sunday
will be in the teens in the lowlands and in the 20`s in area
mountains. Our winds this weekend will be from the southeast and
will stay well below critical levels. For the next week, we will
see a slow increase in moisture. This will allow our min RH`s to
slowly rise so that by the middle of next week, we will have min
RH`s above 20% across the whole region. With the increased
moisture, we will see better thunderstorm chances. The better
thunderstorm chances will lead to more rain, but it will also lead
to the potential for strong outflow winds each afternoon and
evening. Away from thunderstorms, our winds will continue to stay
well below critical levels. Ventilation rates the next couple of
afternoons will range from very good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 101  76 100  76 /   0  10   0  10
Sierra Blanca            92  66  91  66 /  10  10  10  10
Las Cruces               99  71 100  72 /   0  10   0  20
Alamogordo               96  66  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               76  50  76  51 /  10   0  10  10
Truth or Consequences    96  70  97  71 /   0   0  10  20
Silver City              91  66  92  65 /  30  20  50  50
Deming                   98  68 100  69 /  10  10   0  40
Lordsburg                99  69 100  69 /  20  20  40  50
West El Paso Metro       98  75  98  75 /   0  10   0  10
Dell City                96  68  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             99  71  98  70 /   0  10  10  10
Loma Linda               90  66  91  67 /   0  10  10  10
Fabens                   99  72  98  72 /   0  10   0  10
Santa Teresa             96  71  96  72 /   0  10   0  10
White Sands HQ           96  73  97  74 /   0  10   0  10
Jornada Range            97  68  97  69 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                    99  69 100  69 /   0  10  10  20
Columbus                 97  71  99  72 /  10  10   0  30
Orogrande                95  68  95  69 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                  84  55  86  56 /  10   0  10  10
Mescalero                86  56  87  56 /  10   0  20  10
Timberon                 84  53  84  55 /   0   0  10   0
Winston                  89  58  91  59 /  20  20  40  30
Hillsboro                94  67  95  67 /  20  20  30  40
Spaceport                96  66  97  67 /   0   0  10  10
Lake Roberts             92  61  93  61 /  30  30  50  50
Hurley                   94  64  95  64 /  20  10  30  40
Cliff                   101  65 103  65 /  30  30  50  50
Mule Creek               95  69  96  67 /  40  40  60  60
Faywood                  93  66  95  67 /  20  20  30  40
Animas                   99  68 100  69 /  20  30  40  60
Hachita                  97  66  99  69 /  10  20  20  50
Antelope Wells           97  67  97  69 /  20  30  30  60
Cloverdale               92  64  92  65 /  30  40  50  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice