025
FXUS64 KEPZ 150535
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1135 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Mostly dry conditions will continue through Monday. Best chance of
rain and thunderstorms the next couple days will be in the Gila
Region and Bootheel of New Mexico. Moisture gradually increases
across the region all week, with increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms spreading across southern New Mexico and far
west Texas by mid week. The dry conditions will lead to above
normal temperatures for the next few days with cooler temperatures
in the latter half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The high pressure circulation centered over the Four Corners
Region will continue to dominate the local weather pattern with
mostly dry conditions the next couple of days. The high
circulation is tapping drier continental air to the east and
transporting it over the area, while at the same time keeping
deeper moisture pushed mainly south and west of the area in the
near term. Rain and thunderstorm development is less likely over
the area this afternoon and Monday, except for portions of the
Gila Region and Bootheel areas (Grant and Hidalgo counties) which
are closer to deeper moisture sources. The dry conditions will
also lead to warmer temperatures the next few days with upper 90s
to lower 100s possible across the lowlands.

Tuesday will see the high circulation drift south, roughly
centered over the state of New Mexico. With the center of the high
closer to the local area, day time temperatures are expected to
get hot with values several degrees above normal in the lower 100s
for much of the lowlands. At this time temperatures are expected
to stay just below heat advisory thresholds but it will remain
warm. Thunderstorm chances will increase ever so slightly on
Tuesday as a modest increase in moisture will lead to an increase
in shower and thunderstorm development in the afternoon and
evening, primarily for the mountains and lowlands west of the
Rio Grande.

Wednesday will see a transition to a wetter more unstable weather
environment with precipitable water values rising above an inch,
indicative of sufficient moisture to fuel and sustain thunderstorm
development. Thunderstorm development will be enhanced by a weak
upper level disturbance rotating around the high and a frontal
boundary pushing into the that will add lift and instability to
environment to increase rain and thunderstorm chances. There is
with the increased rain activity there is marginal risk of
excessive rainfall, that could lead to flash flooding, especially
for the sensitive wildfire burn scars in the region.

With moisture in place, widespread rain and thunderstorm activity
is expected to last through the end of the week with at least a
chance of thunderstorms each afternoon and evening through
Saturday. With the increased moisture and rain chances day time
temperatures will turn cooler with temperatures expected to drop
slightly below seasonal averages in the latter part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF
sites for the period. Winds will remain light and variable for most
of the evening with a shift to the SE tomorrow afternoon. Winds look
to remain light throughout the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Dry warm conditions will occur over most of the area the next
couple of days as moisture gradually returns to the region. Rain
and thunderstorm development will be mainly limited to the Gila
Region and Bootheel areas of New Mexico the next couple of days.
As moisture increases for the remainder of next week showers and
thunderstorms will become more frequent with greater rainfall
amounts expected. As moisture increases, minimum RH values will
also increase with percentages in the mid to upper teens lowlands
with lower 20s mountains the next few days, then rising to the 20s
and 30s later in the week. Winds will remain light, except near
thunderstorms, mainly from easterly to southerly direction during
the day with a more terrain induced drainage wind direction
overnight. Vent rates will good to very good in the daytime
periods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76 101  77 103 /   0  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca            66  94  68  95 /   0  10  10  20
Las Cruces               71 101  72 102 /   0  10  10  10
Alamogordo               68  98  70  99 /   0  10  10  10
Cloudcroft               51  78  54  77 /   0  20  20  40
Truth or Consequences    70 100  72 100 /   0  10  10  30
Silver City              65  93  66  93 /  10  40  30  70
Deming                   69 101  71 101 /   0  10  20  20
Lordsburg                69  99  69 100 /  20  40  50  60
West El Paso Metro       75  99  76 101 /   0  10  10  10
Dell City                69  98  70 100 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Hancock             70 100  71 101 /   0  10  10  10
Loma Linda               67  93  69  93 /   0  10  10  10
Fabens                   73 100  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
Santa Teresa             72  98  72  99 /   0  10  10  10
White Sands HQ           73  98  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
Jornada Range            69  99  70 100 /   0  10  10  10
Hatch                    69 102  70 103 /   0  10  10  20
Columbus                 72 100  74 101 /   0  20  20  10
Orogrande                69  97  71  98 /   0  10  10  10
Mayhill                  57  88  58  88 /   0  20  20  30
Mescalero                57  88  59  88 /   0  20  20  40
Timberon                 54  86  57  85 /   0  20  20  20
Winston                  59  92  61  93 /   0  20  30  50
Hillsboro                67  97  70  98 /   0  20  30  50
Spaceport                66 100  68 100 /   0  10  10  20
Lake Roberts             61  94  61  93 /  10  40  40  70
Hurley                   64  96  65  96 /   0  30  20  50
Cliff                    65 103  65 103 /  20  40  40  70
Mule Creek               68  96  67  95 /  20  50  40  70
Faywood                  67  96  68  97 /   0  20  30  50
Animas                   69  99  69  99 /  20  50  50  60
Hachita                  69  99  69  99 /  10  30  50  40
Antelope Wells           68  96  67  96 /  20  50  50  60
Cloverdale               64  91  63  90 /  20  50  50  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice