698
FXUS64 KEPZ 151141
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
541 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Our hot, mostly dry weather will continue today and Tuesday, with
just a chance for a few thunderstorms along the New Mexico and
Arizona border. For Wednesday and Thursday, moisture will begin
to return to the forecast. We will still be very warm, but we will
also see better rain chances. For Friday and into the weekend,
our rain chances get better and our high temperatures slip a
little below average for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Hot temperatures have returned as an upper level ridge has settled
over northern New Mexico. Along with the hot temperatures for
today and tomorrow, we will see limited rainfall chances. The best
chances for thunderstorms the next couple of days, will be west
of the Rio Grande. High temperatures today and Tuesday will run 5
to 7 degrees above average. For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper
level ridge will drift north and be centered over the Four Corners
region. This new position will allow some moisture from the east
to slip into the region. For Wednesday and Thursday, we will see
at least a chance for rain area wide both afternoons and into the
evening hours. Despite the increased moisture and better rain
chances, we will still be hot on Wednesday with high temperatures
running around 5 degrees above average, but by Thrusday our highs
will drop a little below average.

For Friday and into the weekend, the upper level ridge will be on
the move again and will recenter over Las Vegas. This will give us
northerly flow aloft, while at the surface the southeast winds
will continue to bring moisture into the region. With the upper
level ridge off to our northwest, we will see vort maxes rotate
down the front side of the ridge and across New Mexico. The
moisture combined with the instability associated with the vort
maxes will give us a good chance for rain each day for Friday
through Sunday. Along with the better rain chances and increased
moisture we will see our high temperatures running 5 to 7 degrees
below average. Looking beyond this forecast package, the pattern
for the last week of July will change very little, so we look to
continue our slightly below average high temperatures and a decent
chance for rain each afternoon and evening. A much better
forecast than last year`s ridiculously hot and dry July.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR condition will continue to prevail today as upper level high
pressure controls our weather. We will have unlimited ceilings
today and tonight. With the ridge aloft, our winds will be
generally light today and tonight. The winds will be from the
southeast to south this afternoon and evening. Temperatures today
will run a little above average and for your planning purposes,
high temperatures on Tuesday will be a couple of degrees warmer
than today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Our rain chances today and Tuesday, will be limited to locations
west of the Rio Grande. Min RH`s today and tomorrow will be in the
teens in the lowlands and in the 20`s in area mountains. By
midweek, moisture will be on the increase and we will see better
rain chances and higher min RH`s. By Thursday, min RH`s will be
near or above 25% across the region. For Friday and into the
coming weekend, we will see a good chance for rain with min RH`s
of 20% or higher. Winds this week will be light, from the south or
southeast. Each day, through the end of the week, we will see the
potential for strong and gusty outflow winds associated with
thunderstorms. Ventilation rates the next couple of days will
range from good to very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 101  77 103  78 /   0  10  10  30
Sierra Blanca            92  68  94  69 /  10  10  20  20
Las Cruces              101  72 103  73 /  10  10  10  40
Alamogordo               98  70 100  70 /   0   0  10  20
Cloudcroft               77  53  78  53 /  10   0  20  20
Truth or Consequences    99  72 101  73 /   0  10  20  30
Silver City              92  65  93  66 /  40  30  60  50
Deming                  100  70 102  71 /  10  20  20  50
Lordsburg                98  70  99  69 /  40  50  60  60
West El Paso Metro       98  75 101  77 /   0  10  10  30
Dell City                98  70 100  71 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Hancock             99  72 101  74 /  10  10  20  30
Loma Linda               92  68  94  71 /  10  10  10  20
Fabens                   99  73 101  75 /  10  10  10  30
Santa Teresa             97  72  99  73 /   0  10  10  40
White Sands HQ           98  74 100  75 /  10  10  10  30
Jornada Range            98  70 101  71 /  10  10  10  30
Hatch                   101  70 103  72 /  10  10  20  30
Columbus                 99  74 101  74 /  10  30  20  60
Orogrande                96  70  98  71 /  10   0  10  20
Mayhill                  87  58  89  58 /  10   0  20  10
Mescalero                88  59  89  59 /  10   0  20  20
Timberon                 85  56  86  58 /  10   0  20  20
Winston                  91  60  93  60 /  20  10  50  40
Hillsboro                96  69  98  70 /  10  20  40  40
Spaceport                98  68 101  69 /   0  10  20  30
Lake Roberts             93  62  94  61 /  40  30  60  50
Hurley                   95  65  97  65 /  30  30  50  50
Cliff                   102  65 103  65 /  50  30  60  50
Mule Creek               95  68  96  66 /  60  30  60  60
Faywood                  95  68  97  68 /  20  20  50  50
Animas                   98  70  99  69 /  50  50  70  70
Hachita                  98  70  99  68 /  30  40  40  70
Antelope Wells           95  68  96  68 /  60  50  70  80
Cloverdale               89  63  90  64 /  70  60  70  80

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice