748
FXUS64 KEPZ 171138
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
538 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 258 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A gradual ramp up in thunderstorm activity expected through the
work week with the most active time frame being over the weekend.
Areawide rain chances expected with flooding, hail, and gusty
outflow winds possible with thunderstorms. Continued rain chances
persist into early next week with the same hazards, but somewhat
drier conditions expected. Another hot day can be expected today
with the lowlands seeing high temperatures in the upper 90s and
low 100s, but with added moisture Thursday and onward the
Borderland should generally stay below triple digit numbers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Upper level high pressure remains situated over the area again
today keeping much of the area dry today. CAMs are suggesting some
t-storm activity in the area mountains and in the NM Bootheel
area in the mid-afternoon hours but not much else forms after
that. A boundary will push in from the north and east late tonight
into early tomorrow morning filtering in better moisture over the
area for Thursday afternoon. Better shower and thunderstorm
activity will exist along this boundary late tonight bringing rain
chances to the northern portion of the CWA. T-storm activity
starts to ramp up starting Thursday with the increase in moisture.
High pressure begins to shift northwestward and away from the
area Thursday and Friday, but similar conditions can be expected
on these days. Above average moisture will be seen on both days
with PW values around the 90% above average for this time of year
(1.1-1.3"). Storm motions will be fairly slow at 5-10MPH. Both of
these ingredients will favor flooding from thunderstorms. Gusty
outflow winds still generally possible with speeds around 30-40MPH
and small hail also possible both days.

High pressure will migrate westward over the weekend with the high
centered right over NV during this time. This will allow good
northerly flow over the area which has been notorious in this area
for bringing a bit better shear to the area, adding organization
to thunderstorms. With that being said, the weekend looks active
with thunderstorm chances possible everywhere Saturday and Sunday
afternoons and evenings. Moisture will continue to be well above
average with slow storm motions allowing flooding to be the
primary hazard with storms. Gusty outflow winds will continue to
be possible. With the added shear, small to moderate sized hail
will certainly be possible. Heading into early next week,
continued northerly flow heading into Monday and Tuesday with rain
chances staying areawide. Moisture content during this time will
be right around average. Flooding will continue to be a threat but
storms will not be as water loaded as what we`ll see over the
weekend. However, the same hazards of hail and gusty outflow winds
will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions expected to continue through at least 03Z. This
morning will feature light east to southeast winds and will
transition to mild breezes (10G20KT) in the afternoon. A boundary
will push in from the north and east tonight bringing breezy winds
as it pushes through to TAF sites. KTCS will see breezy north
winds as soon as 03Z with KELP being the last site to see breezy north
to northeast winds around 08Z. As the boundary pushes through,
KTCS could see a thunderstorm or shower.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Generally little to no fire concerns over the week ahead. Each day
will feature light east to southeast breezes each afternoon with
light and variable winds overnight. Min RHs this afternoon will be
the lowest of the week with values 12-20% in the lowlands and
20-30% in the mountains. A few thunderstorms possible by mid
afternoon in the mountains today but better coverage for showers
and thunderstorms exists later this evening due to a boundary
pushing in from the north and east. Thunderstorm chances will
favor Sierra, Otero and northern Grant counties during the
evening and overnight hours. This could pose a threat over the
recent burn scars as night time flooding is possible.

A gradual increase in thunderstorm chances exists towards the end
of the work week with a bit better coverage than what we`ll see
today. Flooding, small hail and gusty outflow winds will be
possible with storms Thursday and Friday. This weekend appears to
be the most active with Saturday and Sunday featuring moisture
rich thunderstorms that will lead to flooding, hail, and gusty
outflow winds. The biggest hazard will be flooding. Somewhat drier
air entrains into the area Monday and Tuesday but the area will
continue generally areawide thunderstorm chances. Thursday
afternoon and each afternoon onward will bring flooding chances
over the recent burn scars.

Ventilation rates will be very good to excellent today becoming
poor to good Thursday and onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 102  78  99  77 /  10  10  10  30
Sierra Blanca            94  67  91  67 /  10  10  30  30
Las Cruces              101  73  98  72 /  10  20  10  50
Alamogordo               99  68  93  68 /  10  30  30  30
Cloudcroft               76  50  70  51 /  30  30  60  40
Truth or Consequences    99  71  94  69 /  10  40  30  50
Silver City              93  66  90  65 /  40  40  60  60
Deming                  101  72  98  71 /  10  20  10  60
Lordsburg               100  73  98  72 /  20  30  30  60
West El Paso Metro       99  76  97  76 /  10  10  10  40
Dell City                99  70  94  69 /  10   0  30  20
Fort Hancock            101  72  99  72 /  20  10  20  30
Loma Linda               93  68  89  68 /  10  10  30  30
Fabens                  100  74  98  75 /  10  10  10  20
Santa Teresa             98  73  96  74 /  10  10  10  40
White Sands HQ           99  74  95  74 /  10  20  30  50
Jornada Range            99  70  95  70 /  10  30  30  50
Hatch                   101  71  98  70 /  10  30  20  60
Columbus                 99  74  98  74 /  10  20  10  50
Orogrande                97  70  93  69 /  10  20  30  40
Mayhill                  86  55  79  55 /  30  30  60  30
Mescalero                87  56  81  56 /  30  30  70  40
Timberon                 85  55  79  54 /  20  30  50  30
Winston                  91  59  86  58 /  30  40  60  60
Hillsboro                96  67  93  67 /  20  40  50  70
Spaceport                99  68  94  67 /  10  30  30  50
Lake Roberts             93  62  89  60 /  50  40  70  60
Hurley                   96  66  93  64 /  30  40  50  60
Cliff                   103  66 100  65 /  50  40  60  60
Mule Creek               96  68  93  67 /  50  40  60  60
Faywood                  95  68  92  67 /  20  40  40  60
Animas                  100  71  99  72 /  30  30  20  60
Hachita                  99  70  98  70 /  10  20  10  50
Antelope Wells           96  69  97  69 /  30  30  20  50
Cloverdale               92  67  93  68 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher