496
ABPZ20 KNHC 161143
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico are
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week
while it moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure could form by this weekend well to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the early
and middle parts of next week while it moves generally westward
across the western portion of the East Pacific and into the Central
Pacific basin.  Information on this system`s development can also
be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Berg